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> I don't believe it's a coincidence that the ill-posed problem gets the high profile attention. In this case even the well-posed problem(s) can be highly cont

by kgwgk 3y ago

> I don't believe it's a coincidence that the ill-posed problem gets the high profile attention. In this case even the well-posed problem(s) can be highly controversial as it can be seen from other comments - including someone who claims that probabilities are meaningless here because "it’s not a repeated game." > something strange is going on. The New York Times may be part of it then, I got the second quote from https://www.nytimes.com/1991/07/21/us/behind-monty-hall-s-doors-puzzle-debate-and-answer.html https://www.nytimes.com/1991/07/21/us/behind-monty-hall-s-do...

DoctorOetker 3y ago
Sadly I can't read the NYT. > In this case even the well-posed problem(s) can be highly controversial as it can be seen from other comments - including someone who claims that probabilities are meaningless here because "it’s not a repeated game." I will take a look at such a comment if you link it, but I'm not going to actively search for such comments as I don't plan to play Monty Hall police. The most intelligent probably just responded on the internet when they first got acquainted with it, and upon realizing the problem is ill-posed just ignore it. So the visible flamewar tends to be between people who don't realize the problem is ill-posed...
- kgwgk 3y ago
  I was referring to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36736947 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36736947 but I didn’t expect you to read all the exchanges or comment on them. “In Monty Hall, you’re just making a guess and no matter how clever you are about it, it’s still just a guess. There is no strategy because the game doesn’t last long enough for strategy to matter.” The point is that the discussions are not always related to a misunderstanding about the protocol followed by the host to open a door. Someone else doesn’t accept that (after the host’s protocol is fully specified) the problem is conditional on the stated run on events - insisting that it only makes sense to consider “the whole game”: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36737326 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36737326

by kgwgk 3y ago

DoctorOetker 3y ago

Sadly I can't read the NYT. > In this case even the well-posed problem(s) can be highly controversial as it can be seen from other comments - including someone who claims that probabilities are meaningless here because "it’s not a repeated game." I will take a look at such a comment if you link it, but I'm not going to actively search for such comments as I don't plan to play Monty Hall police. The most intelligent probably just responded on the internet when they first got acquainted with it, and upon realizing the problem is ill-posed just ignore it. So the visible flamewar tends to be between people who don't realize the problem is ill-posed...

kgwgk 3y ago
I was referring to https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36736947 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36736947 but I didn’t expect you to read all the exchanges or comment on them. “In Monty Hall, you’re just making a guess and no matter how clever you are about it, it’s still just a guess. There is no strategy because the game doesn’t last long enough for strategy to matter.” The point is that the discussions are not always related to a misunderstanding about the protocol followed by the host to open a door. Someone else doesn’t accept that (after the host’s protocol is fully specified) the problem is conditional on the stated run on events - insisting that it only makes sense to consider “the whole game”: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36737326 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36737326