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That video is a joke for anyone who has more than a superficial understanding of math. Just because a process has fit an exponential curve does not mean exponen
by astrofinch 15y ago
That video is a joke for anyone who has more than a superficial understanding of math. Just because a process has fit an exponential curve does not mean exponential growth is going to continue forever. Past growth patterns are fairly weak evidence of future growth patterns. ("Housing prices always go up!")
That's not to say we shouldn't fear a process that is inherently exponential in nature, like the reproduction of bacteria or a nuclear reaction going supercritical. But if the process only appears from the outside to have been growing exponentially, that's only a weak indicator that it will start behaving in an insane fashion.
In any case, it seems that as nations become more developed people stop having kids:
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/11/fertility-the-big-problem.html http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/11/fertility-the-big-prob...
- pbhjpbhj 15y agoThe demographic transition might slow population growth, but for how long? http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v460/n7256/abs/nature08230.html http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v460/n7256/abs/nature08... suggests that populations passing through the DT eventually recover and begin to grow again. There's not a clear causality either.
- astrofinch 15y agoIt says their fertility rate goes up; there is no mention made of it surpassing the replacement rate.
- pbhjpbhj 15y agoSuggests. From the full paper: >"* Morespecifically,ourfindingsreduce,if notyetcompletelyreject,fearsofpopulationdeclinethathavebeenincorporated inmanynationalpopulationforecastsforhighlyadvancedcountries.Nevertheless,weexpectcountrieslaggingbehindintermsofdevelopmenttocontinuetheir fertilitydecline,consistentlywithcurrentscientificknowledge.Moreover,some countriesatintermediatedevelopmentlevelsarelikelytofaceadeclineinpopulationsizebecausethesecountriesdonotyet—andmaynotintheforeseeable future—benefitfromthereversalofthedevelopment–fertilityrelationshipthathas occurredatadvancedHDIlevels*" http://ccpr.ucla.edu:8080/CCPRWebsite/events/ccpr-previous-seminars/ccpr-seminars-previous-years/Kohler-advances%20in%20development.pdf http://ccpr.ucla.edu:8080/CCPRWebsite/events/ccpr-previous-s...
- wazoox 15y ago> Just because a process has fit an exponential curve does not mean exponential growth is going to continue forever. Did you watch the video? This is precisely what it's talking about. Though the economy and energy usage have grown up exponentially for the past two centuries, we cannot hope that it will go on forever. Population growth isn't a concern per se, resource overconsumption and the impossibility of future economic growth are.
- crististm 15y agoResource consumption is directly related to population. So if the latter is not a concern then neither the first.