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Countries that will suffer the most temperature change from global warming
- Simulacra 3y agoUS is not even on the list.
- degun 3y agoShould it?
- arp242 3y agoBecause it's not in the top 10...
- arrowsmith 3y agoThe US is a big place - big enough that different parts of the country are sure to be affected very differently. Whatever the figures are for the US, I'd be interested to see a state-by-state breakdown of them.
- scrozart 3y agoAnd?
- Luc 3y agoLink to supplementary notes with tables containing more countries: https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41893-023-01155-z/MediaObjects/41893_2023_1155_MOESM1_ESM.pdf https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs418...
- criddell 3y agoI wonder if there are some countries that will see a net benefit from global warming?
- qaq 3y agoIreland ?
- arp242 3y agoWon't it mean it will rain even more? But yeah, I read about people fainting and dying of the heat all over Europe, and meanwhile I'm sitting in Ireland: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nshTBTnHFMw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nshTBTnHFMw
- seanalltogether 3y agoYeah we get all the tropical storms battering us year round, like the one this past week, and warming might mean they get more intense. plus its not like global warming means we get more sun during the bleak winters. Maybe germany and poland will benefit more then us.
- chasing 3y agoRussia.
- mistrial9 3y agothis comment ignores massive detriment -- forest fire alone will cause unsolveable damage.
- p2detar 3y agoHowever, they should gain access to warm-water ports, which seems to be a huge upgrade in terms of economy and geopolitics. (1) 1 - https://youtu.be/v3C_5bsdQWg https://youtu.be/v3C_5bsdQWg
- lapcat 3y agoI live in Wisconsin, a northern US state that you'd think would benefit from warmer temperatures. But we've spent all summer under the smoke of Canadian wildfires, and we're also experiencing drought conditions, which is obviously not good for farming.
- romusha 3y agoAlso known as the country who is vehemently for global warming
- vbezhenar 3y agoA very significant part of Russia is permafrost. As climate gets warm, more of permafrost land is melting. It's not really clear the consequences of this process. It releases trapped CO2, it changes ecosystems, it transforms solid land into a swamp. I'm not claiming that you're not correct. Cold climate requires spending truly enormous energy and resources to heat people, to build warm houses, to craft warm clothes. Cold climate harvests very lesser amounts of wheat and other plants and animals. This is extremely big part of equation.
- gonzo41 3y agoThere's a fun youtuber called vagabond, who train hops around Russia and Europe. He had a video showing buildings build on permafrost. They lift the buildings up off the ground so none of the heating heat touches the ground and weakens the foundations. I fully expect if the permafrost goes soggy, most of the settled north will just sink into the bog.
- blondie9x 3y agoThere is no benefit to life from anthropogenic climate change anywhere on Earth. 350 ppm of CO2 was the perfect balance that life is made for. We are up to about 420 ppm of CO2 now. We raised it 70 ppm in less than 200 years. Unreal.
- candiddevmike 3y agoAny interesting links around why 350 is the target? I searched and everyone keeps quoting the same climate guru without any reasoning behind why that number specifically was chosen.
- vbezhenar 3y agoCO2 was below 400 PPM for the last 5 million years and around 350 PPM was the last 100 000 years. It's just the number the nature stabilized at, before human civilization changed it. Historically life endured all kinds of PPM up to 2000 and above. So probably nature will adapt.
- oppositelock 3y agoWhy is 350ppm the perfect concentration? Higher is better for plants, because most are carbon limited, for example. The Carboniferous era, whose biosphere sequestered so much carbon, had far higher concentrations. I’m not disagreeing, but that seemed like a statement out of the blue.
- tzs 3y agoAre you sure you didn't mean 250 ppm? That's a lot closer to what it was 200 years ago. 350 ppm is around 1990 levels and it is hard to see how 1990 levels would be what life was made for.
- agilob 3y agoThere's a joke that Czechia will have access to the sea
- maratc 3y agoCanada?
- neom 3y agoWell except we'll have no trees because they all burned down, but otherwise sure.
- WinstonSmith84 3y agoIt's going to require some changes on how forests are maintained, but there will still be trees in Canada. In countries which are warmer and drier, they clean their forests and build large alleys so that a wildfire may be contained to a smaller area. This will require some investment, but there are other areas where it's clear that Canada is going to become a large beneficiary of global warming.
- neom 3y agoI work with a startup who are thinking about this exact thing: https://www.earthforce.io/ https://www.earthforce.io/ They're well funded, very very experienced founders, and working on great stuff! Fingers crossed.
- speed_spread 3y agoWe'll also get all the USA climate (weather and political) migrants to use as cheap labor in maple syrup mines.
- gonzo41 3y agoDepressingly, the north Atlantic pass comes to mind.
- pharmakom 3y agoScotland maybe?
- WinstonSmith84 3y agoMost (very) cold countries actually. This will require adjustments (like for Canada with its wildfires) but over time these cold countries shall (net) benefit.
- arrowsmith 3y agoTheir biggest problem will be dealing with all the climate refugees that show up at their borders.
- xwdv 3y agoSome of these numbers don’t feel compatible with human life.
- moralestapia 3y agoLike, which ones?
- ginko 3y agoA 30% relative change in temperature from an avg 20°C/293K would be a difference of almost 100K.
- moralestapia 3y agoIt's not that, come on. It's on TFA, 1.5-2C change.
- ginko 3y agoBut relative temperature change only makes sense if you use absolute units. I.e. Kelvin.
- moralestapia 3y agoRead man, read.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- gmuslera 3y agoThe problem are not yearly averages, but outliers. Never cross a river that is on average 4 feet deep. As long as extreme cold somewhat "compensate" extreme heat your average temperature may not be so different from what it is today, but your day to day life may not be exactly enjoyable, to say the least. Frequent enough extreme weather events can ruin crops, damage infrastructure and make unreliable to live there for the long term, even for industrialized countries. Once in a century extreme weather events are happening every few years now. And no countries are safe from that. About reaching global yearly average temperature of 2ºC by 2050, we already reached 1.5ºC as global average temperature for some days. This year, due to El Niño conditions that officially started some weeks ago, we are breaking records so bad that there is a big enough visible gap against the trends on the last 40+ years. The change is not smooth nor linear. And we are getting conditions that defies any average.
- ospray 3y agoAlso if you don't think 2°C matters try changing you office thermostat by that amount.
- gmuslera 3y agoGlobal averages are not the same as the temperature you are feeling right now. If that global average rises doesn't mean that your local temperature will rise that amount over what it used to be the same day 100 years ago. You should see it as the increase of the energy of the climate system, that will bring more extreme weather events (even cold ones) and reaching new peaks. Think in the increase of surface sea temperature from https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ that we are seeing today, that would be equivalent to maybe millions of times the energy of the Hiroshima bomb (to put it easier to understand terms). It is not that the planet heated that amount suddenly in the last few months, but that the extra heat we've been receiving and keeping all this years has been circulating through the system, something is being emitted back, some may had hit saturation points, and some positive feedback loops probably has been triggered. And those feedback loops with their corresponding tipping points are the reason why we drew the line in 1.5ºC. Not because your thermostat would be 1.5ºC higher, but because by then the system may reach a stage where things will increasingly worsen a lot by themselves, even without our action.
- JaggerFoo 3y agoI notice that Mexico and Australia are not included on the extended list, I'm not sure what that says about the study or the two countries.
- wzdd 3y agoAustralia is 57th in supplementary table 5 of the linked paper, which adjusts for urban areas only. I assume that coastal areas (where the cities are) are impacted more under this CDD measure than deserts (which is what most of Australia is).
- WithinReason 3y agoDue to how CDD is defined, this just seems to become a list of hot and cold countries.
- karmakaze 3y agoCooling Degree Days seem to have varying definitions (from other references): > Cooling degree days (CDDs) are a widely used measure of heat exposure and cooling demand. It measures how much the mean temperature exceeds a reference temperature each day over a given period, using the dry bulb temperature. For example, considering 18ºC as the baseline temperature for CDD calculation, a day with a mean outdoor temperature of 30°C, has 12 CDDs (30-18). If the next day has a mean temperature of 28°C, it has 10 CDDs. The total for the two days is, therefore, 22 CDDs. > Degree days are measures of how cold or warm a location is. A degree day compares the mean (the average of the high and low) outdoor temperatures recorded for a location to a standard temperature, usually 65° Fahrenheit (F) in the United States. The more extreme the outside temperature, the higher the number of degree days. A high number of degree days generally results in higher levels of energy use for space heating or cooling. So this all seems quite arbitrary. As everything warms I suspect that we'll be adjusting that base temp from 18'C/65'F to something warmer that is still tolerable. In the summer I find 24'C indoor temps to be just fine as long as humidity doesn't get too high.