10 ms·

Global heat in ‘uncharted territory’: 2023 could be the hottest year on record

40 points by abhayhegde 3y ago

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
jacooper 3y ago
More news at 11. Also get ready to start installing air conditioning in your home.
- joe__f 3y ago
  I saw an article the other day that we've got coal power stations on standby in the UK to power all the new air conditioning units
  - morkalork 3y ago
    ooof
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    There is one coal fired plant remaining in the UK (Ratcliffe-on-Soar), roughly 1.5GW total capacity. A substantial portion of UK electricity consumption is now domestic wind, clean hydro from Norway, and low carbon nuclear from France. Roughly 61% of electricity used came from low carbon sources over the last 12 months. The coal plant in question will be retired next year (October 2024). https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/GB https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/GB https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63976805 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63976805 https://www.ecowatch.com/renewable-energy-uk-2022.html https://www.ecowatch.com/renewable-energy-uk-2022.html https://www.gov.uk/government/news/end-to-coal-power-brought-forward-to-october-2024 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/end-to-coal-power-brought...
    - joe__f 3y ago
      Oh this is a lot less bleak than the title of the article suggested, as you can see I didn't actually read it. Anyway the irony is still palpable, I could almost taste it in the air when I saw the headline
  - PaulKeeble 3y ago
    The angle the press went with is that solar doesn't work when it's too hot so we need to fire up the coal. Except that day solar produced a third of the UKs power, one of its best days of the year and we didn't actually use coal after all. The entire premise of that press push was a serious distortion of reality.
colechristensen 3y ago
Not trying to deny anything but with the length of records and a random distribution you’d still expect “hottest year” to happen pretty often. (Somebody please do the statistics) With a very slightly warming planet it would indeed happen quite often. In other words… setting records means something, but less than one would expect by default. The more valid statistic is something like n of the last 30 years have been the warmest on record, or something along those lines.
- maxlamb 3y ago
  If you look at the graph of the last 140 years of global average temperatures it definitely does not look random at all.... it just keeps going up https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ContentWOC/images/globaltemp/global_gis_2022_chart.png https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ContentWOC/images/globalte...
  - ChatGTP 3y ago
    It must have been so nice to experience the climate in the 1890s, imagine summers which were just nice and short, winters with beautiful, high quality and consistent snow falls and more permanently snow capped mountains. It must've been quite a beautiful time witness.
    - stavros 3y ago
      And with actual pleasant spring, rather than 10 C one day and 30 C the next. This was even happening in my childhood, you don't need to go as far back as 1890.
      - colechristensen 3y ago
        There are also natural long period climate cycles that global warming is on top of. Solar changes, small orbital and axis changes, long period climate resonances caused by many other things as well. Basically everyone ever for thousands of years experienced different weather patterns as adults than as children. Also perception of weather as an adult and what actually gets remembered… Climate is not naturally static and you can’t attribute every change to humans. There is a lot going on.
DoreenMichele 3y ago
Rather than AC, which just deepens the problem by increasing our energy burn rate, we need more passive solar design. Plus more mixed-use, walkable neighborhoods. Also: Reduce upholstered furniture, books and similar, take trash out more regularly, remove all cardboard from groceries as soon as you get them home.
- ygjb 3y ago
  There is nothing that individual consumers can do that will change this. Policy is needed at a national and international level.
  - DoreenMichele 3y ago
    Perhaps. But if you don't want to be a statistic counted among the dead in the next heat wave, I recommend taking your trash out, getting rid of cardboard, etc to make the temp and humidity in your space more bearable.
    - headsupernova 3y ago
      Can you explain the cardboard part?
      - DoreenMichele 3y ago
        During my divorce, I and my two teenaged sons moved in with relatives and the three of us occupied a single bedroom for nearly a year. We slept there, we kept all our possessions there and we stored SOME of the food we ate in that room, separate from the kitchen pantry for the rest of the family. This was in Georgia, which is very hot and humid in the summer, and initially we had trouble sleeping because the room just stayed too hot and humid, especially when it was warm. I have no idea why we did this, but one day we took all the cans of sodas out of the cardboard boxes and threw the boxes out and took other food items out of the cardboard boxes and repackaged some of it in Ziploc bags. And suddenly the room was cool and dry enough to be comfortable. We thought we were imagining this. Like "Noooo, that can't be." But there happened to be a thermometer in the window of this room and on subsequent occasions we were able to determine by repeating this that the temperature consistently dropped five degrees Fahrenheit whenever we removed all the cardboard from the food supplies stored in our room. So it eventually became policy to take everything out of the cardboard box and throw away the cardboard box right after we got all the groceries home. We still do this. Removing cardboard, etc, drops the temperature and humidity and most likely it is because cardboard et al is more or less slowly rotting. Kind of the same reason hay bails catch fire.
claytongulick 3y ago
Or maybe not? [1] [1] https://temperature.global/ https://temperature.global/
- itsanaccount 3y ago
  i think its important to mention that the linked page of temperatures links to a podcast called "debunking the climate change hysteria" by munchie and the bearman
  - claytongulick 3y ago
    Ad hominem attacks are boring, you can do better. Maybe challenge the methodology? Or the data sources? "NOAA Global METARs NOAA One-Minute Observations (OMOs) NBDC Global Buoy Reports MADIS Mesonet Data" Or should I ignore your comment because your HN handle is "itsanaccount"?
    - thefurdrake 3y ago
      Can you please provide detail on how mentioning the existence interests of the source you provided is ad hominem? This is a new definition of ad hominem I don't think I've encountered before.
MrVandemar 3y ago
After talking about it for thirty, forty years and not doing much more than feeling good about sorting our recycling, we're here at the tipping point. We need to not be talking about "climate change" anymore. We are here at "climate collapse".
- thatfrenchguy 3y ago
  We’re more at « global warming » than « climate collapse » right now for most ecosystems.
  - ygjb 3y ago
    Right - global warming as a function of climate change, it's not the climate that is collapsing, it's the ecology that ~8 billion people depend on to survive that is collapsing :) fiddles pedantically while the world burns
    - ChatGTP 3y ago
      Fires up thousands of GPUs to train more models to solve climate change
    - revelio 3y ago
      The ecology isn't collapsing either.
      - ygjb 3y ago
        https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-ENVIRONMENT/INSECT-APOCALYPSE/egpbykdxjvq/ https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-ENVIRONMENT/INSECT-A... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-warn-of-looming-mass-ocean-extinction/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-warn-o... Just two quick examples, but go ahead and keep your head in the sand.
        revelio 3y ago
        The first is the insectopocalypse, which has been debunked: https://theconversation.com/insect-apocalypse-not-so-fast-at-least-in-north-america-141107 https://theconversation.com/insect-apocalypse-not-so-fast-at... The second is a prediction for 300 years in the future. But we're talking about the claim "the ecology is collapsing", present tense.
timmg 3y ago
We know and have known the earth is warming. Since there is some natural variability, we don’t set a new record every year. But if there wasn’t, we would. And so it shouldn’t be a surprise to us when we do.
- abhayhegde 3y ago
  It's not concerning that we are setting a new record; we know that's bound to happen. It's the pace of increase that's pushing us towards uncharted territories. We didn't anticipate these rapid changes.
  - timmg 3y ago
    Wasn't the last hottest year like 2016? Seven years ago. Is it really that fast? We've had a few consecutive years of la nina. This year is the revenge el nino. It was going to be hotter.
  - revelio 3y ago
    It is not uncharted. The Vikings were doing agriculture in Greenland, the Romans grew wine in England as far north as Lincolnshire, bison were roaming at altitudes that cannot be found at today. There were periods in the past warmer than it is today. Climatologists once knew this, it was uncontroversial. But when they realized they could raise the importance of their field by predicting disaster, this history became problematic and was erased. https://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/hearings?Id=BFE4D91D-802A-23AD-4306-B4121BF7ECED&Statement_id=361256C4-11DC-4E5D-8D1D-9FEDF082D081 https://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/hearings?Id=BFE4... I had another interesting experience around the time my paper in Science was published. I received an astonishing email from a major researcher in the area of climate change. He said, "We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period." The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was a time of unusually warm weather that began around 1000 AD and persisted until a cold period known as the "Little Ice Age" took hold in the 14th century. Warmer climate brought a remarkable flowering of prosperity, knowledge, and art to Europe during the High Middle Ages. The existence of the MWP had been recognized in the scientific literature for decades. But now it was a major embarrassment to those maintaining that the 20th century warming was truly anomalous. It had to be "gotten rid of."
blownpipeline 3y ago
Anyone who believes cnn at this point I feel sorry for. They’ve discredited themselves numerous times. They and media more generally are known for selling fear and pushing certain narratives because fear sells. And operation mockingbird was never really concluded. Psy ops are now more ubiquitous than ever. And it’s less hot now than the last few years where I live. And I don’t live in a big city. Big cities are hot as hell, and should be abandoned or completely redesigned because they are unlivable hell holes.
- ChatGTP 3y ago
  And it’s less hot now than the last few years where I live That's not how it works. CNN though, I agree, it's complete trash but climate change is not a "psy op".
  - blownpipeline 3y ago
    Climate change is THE psy op. I know a thing or two about it. I myself was in the climate change camp/cult for a while. The hot weather this summer is driven primarily by the El Nino which is a natural cycle. So yes, we’ll have weird and in some places (especially densely populated cities) hot weather for about 2-5 years, but then I predict temperature will go down. Greenhouse effect is a third order effect, maybe a second order, but that’s a huge stretch. I am being generous. Edit: I don’t like being robbed on the ability to reply and being gaslit at the same time. “You posting too fast, slow down, thanks” my ass. If anything, it just gives me more reason to believe that there’s a narrative and any and all dissenting voices are being supressed. Under fair conditions, I’d debate anyone on this subject because as I have said previously, I can see through the bullshit. Consider this my last comment on this subject. I now have to go and save the planet from more psyops, like the war in Ukraine is not a proxy war and was unprovoked. Bye!
    - digdugdirk 3y ago
      Phew, then global temperature should be going down aaaaany minute now: "Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2009–10, 2014–16, 2018–19, and beginning in 2023." (From Wikipedia)
orangesitebad69 3y ago
I will do exactly as you say, and delete my account nd never come to this nasty site. Your wish is my command. But in all seriousness this site is very awful and mostly filled with like minded close minded intellectuals that are pushing the mainstream narrative and cannot stand any real diversity of opinion. So rhe joke is on you, funny guy. You should go join a circus.

40 points by abhayhegde 3y ago

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

jacooper 3y ago

More news at 11. Also get ready to start installing air conditioning in your home.

joe__f 3y ago
I saw an article the other day that we've got coal power stations on standby in the UK to power all the new air conditioning units
- morkalork 3y ago
  ooof
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  There is one coal fired plant remaining in the UK (Ratcliffe-on-Soar), roughly 1.5GW total capacity. A substantial portion of UK electricity consumption is now domestic wind, clean hydro from Norway, and low carbon nuclear from France. Roughly 61% of electricity used came from low carbon sources over the last 12 months. The coal plant in question will be retired next year (October 2024). https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/GB https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/GB https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63976805 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63976805 https://www.ecowatch.com/renewable-energy-uk-2022.html https://www.ecowatch.com/renewable-energy-uk-2022.html https://www.gov.uk/government/news/end-to-coal-power-brought-forward-to-october-2024 https://www.gov.uk/government/news/end-to-coal-power-brought...
  - joe__f 3y ago
    Oh this is a lot less bleak than the title of the article suggested, as you can see I didn't actually read it. Anyway the irony is still palpable, I could almost taste it in the air when I saw the headline
- PaulKeeble 3y ago
  The angle the press went with is that solar doesn't work when it's too hot so we need to fire up the coal. Except that day solar produced a third of the UKs power, one of its best days of the year and we didn't actually use coal after all. The entire premise of that press push was a serious distortion of reality.

colechristensen 3y ago

Not trying to deny anything but with the length of records and a random distribution you’d still expect “hottest year” to happen pretty often. (Somebody please do the statistics) With a very slightly warming planet it would indeed happen quite often. In other words… setting records means something, but less than one would expect by default. The more valid statistic is something like n of the last 30 years have been the warmest on record, or something along those lines.

maxlamb 3y ago
If you look at the graph of the last 140 years of global average temperatures it definitely does not look random at all.... it just keeps going up https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ContentWOC/images/globaltemp/global_gis_2022_chart.png https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ContentWOC/images/globalte...
- ChatGTP 3y ago
  It must have been so nice to experience the climate in the 1890s, imagine summers which were just nice and short, winters with beautiful, high quality and consistent snow falls and more permanently snow capped mountains. It must've been quite a beautiful time witness.
  - stavros 3y ago
    And with actual pleasant spring, rather than 10 C one day and 30 C the next. This was even happening in my childhood, you don't need to go as far back as 1890.
    - colechristensen 3y ago
      There are also natural long period climate cycles that global warming is on top of. Solar changes, small orbital and axis changes, long period climate resonances caused by many other things as well. Basically everyone ever for thousands of years experienced different weather patterns as adults than as children. Also perception of weather as an adult and what actually gets remembered… Climate is not naturally static and you can’t attribute every change to humans. There is a lot going on.

DoreenMichele 3y ago

Rather than AC, which just deepens the problem by increasing our energy burn rate, we need more passive solar design. Plus more mixed-use, walkable neighborhoods. Also: Reduce upholstered furniture, books and similar, take trash out more regularly, remove all cardboard from groceries as soon as you get them home.

ygjb 3y ago
There is nothing that individual consumers can do that will change this. Policy is needed at a national and international level.
- DoreenMichele 3y ago
  Perhaps. But if you don't want to be a statistic counted among the dead in the next heat wave, I recommend taking your trash out, getting rid of cardboard, etc to make the temp and humidity in your space more bearable.
  - headsupernova 3y ago
    Can you explain the cardboard part?
    - DoreenMichele 3y ago
      During my divorce, I and my two teenaged sons moved in with relatives and the three of us occupied a single bedroom for nearly a year. We slept there, we kept all our possessions there and we stored SOME of the food we ate in that room, separate from the kitchen pantry for the rest of the family. This was in Georgia, which is very hot and humid in the summer, and initially we had trouble sleeping because the room just stayed too hot and humid, especially when it was warm. I have no idea why we did this, but one day we took all the cans of sodas out of the cardboard boxes and threw the boxes out and took other food items out of the cardboard boxes and repackaged some of it in Ziploc bags. And suddenly the room was cool and dry enough to be comfortable. We thought we were imagining this. Like "Noooo, that can't be." But there happened to be a thermometer in the window of this room and on subsequent occasions we were able to determine by repeating this that the temperature consistently dropped five degrees Fahrenheit whenever we removed all the cardboard from the food supplies stored in our room. So it eventually became policy to take everything out of the cardboard box and throw away the cardboard box right after we got all the groceries home. We still do this. Removing cardboard, etc, drops the temperature and humidity and most likely it is because cardboard et al is more or less slowly rotting. Kind of the same reason hay bails catch fire.

claytongulick 3y ago

Or maybe not? [1] [1] https://temperature.global/ https://temperature.global/

itsanaccount 3y ago
i think its important to mention that the linked page of temperatures links to a podcast called "debunking the climate change hysteria" by munchie and the bearman
- claytongulick 3y ago
  Ad hominem attacks are boring, you can do better. Maybe challenge the methodology? Or the data sources? "NOAA Global METARs NOAA One-Minute Observations (OMOs) NBDC Global Buoy Reports MADIS Mesonet Data" Or should I ignore your comment because your HN handle is "itsanaccount"?
  - thefurdrake 3y ago
    Can you please provide detail on how mentioning the existence interests of the source you provided is ad hominem? This is a new definition of ad hominem I don't think I've encountered before.

MrVandemar 3y ago

After talking about it for thirty, forty years and not doing much more than feeling good about sorting our recycling, we're here at the tipping point. We need to not be talking about "climate change" anymore. We are here at "climate collapse".

thatfrenchguy 3y ago
We’re more at « global warming » than « climate collapse » right now for most ecosystems.
- ygjb 3y ago
  Right - global warming as a function of climate change, it's not the climate that is collapsing, it's the ecology that ~8 billion people depend on to survive that is collapsing :) fiddles pedantically while the world burns
  - ChatGTP 3y ago
    Fires up thousands of GPUs to train more models to solve climate change
  - revelio 3y ago
    The ecology isn't collapsing either.
    - ygjb 3y ago
      https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-ENVIRONMENT/INSECT-APOCALYPSE/egpbykdxjvq/ https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-ENVIRONMENT/INSECT-A... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-warn-of-looming-mass-ocean-extinction/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientists-warn-o... Just two quick examples, but go ahead and keep your head in the sand.
      - revelio 3y ago
        The first is the insectopocalypse, which has been debunked: https://theconversation.com/insect-apocalypse-not-so-fast-at-least-in-north-america-141107 https://theconversation.com/insect-apocalypse-not-so-fast-at... The second is a prediction for 300 years in the future. But we're talking about the claim "the ecology is collapsing", present tense.

timmg 3y ago

We know and have known the earth is warming. Since there is some natural variability, we don’t set a new record every year. But if there wasn’t, we would. And so it shouldn’t be a surprise to us when we do.

abhayhegde 3y ago
It's not concerning that we are setting a new record; we know that's bound to happen. It's the pace of increase that's pushing us towards uncharted territories. We didn't anticipate these rapid changes.
- timmg 3y ago
  Wasn't the last hottest year like 2016? Seven years ago. Is it really that fast? We've had a few consecutive years of la nina. This year is the revenge el nino. It was going to be hotter.
- revelio 3y ago
  It is not uncharted. The Vikings were doing agriculture in Greenland, the Romans grew wine in England as far north as Lincolnshire, bison were roaming at altitudes that cannot be found at today. There were periods in the past warmer than it is today. Climatologists once knew this, it was uncontroversial. But when they realized they could raise the importance of their field by predicting disaster, this history became problematic and was erased. https://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/hearings?Id=BFE4D91D-802A-23AD-4306-B4121BF7ECED&Statement_id=361256C4-11DC-4E5D-8D1D-9FEDF082D081 https://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/hearings?Id=BFE4... I had another interesting experience around the time my paper in Science was published. I received an astonishing email from a major researcher in the area of climate change. He said, "We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period." The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was a time of unusually warm weather that began around 1000 AD and persisted until a cold period known as the "Little Ice Age" took hold in the 14th century. Warmer climate brought a remarkable flowering of prosperity, knowledge, and art to Europe during the High Middle Ages. The existence of the MWP had been recognized in the scientific literature for decades. But now it was a major embarrassment to those maintaining that the 20th century warming was truly anomalous. It had to be "gotten rid of."

blownpipeline 3y ago

Anyone who believes cnn at this point I feel sorry for. They’ve discredited themselves numerous times. They and media more generally are known for selling fear and pushing certain narratives because fear sells. And operation mockingbird was never really concluded. Psy ops are now more ubiquitous than ever. And it’s less hot now than the last few years where I live. And I don’t live in a big city. Big cities are hot as hell, and should be abandoned or completely redesigned because they are unlivable hell holes.

ChatGTP 3y ago
And it’s less hot now than the last few years where I live That's not how it works. CNN though, I agree, it's complete trash but climate change is not a "psy op".
- blownpipeline 3y ago
  Climate change is THE psy op. I know a thing or two about it. I myself was in the climate change camp/cult for a while. The hot weather this summer is driven primarily by the El Nino which is a natural cycle. So yes, we’ll have weird and in some places (especially densely populated cities) hot weather for about 2-5 years, but then I predict temperature will go down. Greenhouse effect is a third order effect, maybe a second order, but that’s a huge stretch. I am being generous. Edit: I don’t like being robbed on the ability to reply and being gaslit at the same time. “You posting too fast, slow down, thanks” my ass. If anything, it just gives me more reason to believe that there’s a narrative and any and all dissenting voices are being supressed. Under fair conditions, I’d debate anyone on this subject because as I have said previously, I can see through the bullshit. Consider this my last comment on this subject. I now have to go and save the planet from more psyops, like the war in Ukraine is not a proxy war and was unprovoked. Bye!
  - digdugdirk 3y ago
    Phew, then global temperature should be going down aaaaany minute now: "Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2009–10, 2014–16, 2018–19, and beginning in 2023." (From Wikipedia)

orangesitebad69 3y ago

I will do exactly as you say, and delete my account nd never come to this nasty site. Your wish is my command. But in all seriousness this site is very awful and mostly filled with like minded close minded intellectuals that are pushing the mainstream narrative and cannot stand any real diversity of opinion. So rhe joke is on you, funny guy. You should go join a circus.