5 ms·

US EV goals will require up to $127B to install 28M chargers by 2030: NREL

15 points by vegetablepotpie 3y ago

gottorf 3y ago
For a comparable figure, in 2022, Congress approved $113B in aid to Ukraine.
metadat 3y ago
$4,500 per charger+install isn't too bad, considering the material and labor costs.
- sokoloff 3y ago
  > require 26.8 million Level 1 and Level 2 ports at single-family homes, apartments and other locations That’s the counts for Level 1 and 2 chargers. Level 1 chargers are “a regular outlet and a $150 EVSE”. Level 2 is “a larger outlet/breaker and a $500-750 EVSE”. The projected $72B for that portion seems crazy high to me to be honest.
  - metadat 3y ago
    There could be additional electrical, cement, and other work required beyond just mounting the charger. Not to mention the planning and permit process. Also, labor is expensive these days. It's not going to be a single person doing the entire install alone. This is the standard quo in any first tier country today.
    - sokoloff 3y ago
      Basically all the installs in single-family homes will be zero or one electrician. (Zero if the install is “plug in the L1 charger from Amazon to the existing outlet in the garage”) That will drag the average down quite a bit.
      - metadat 3y ago
        The downtown ones will easily soak up all excess resources allocated. :-/
- abracadaniel 3y ago
  A fraction of what it will cost to clean up all of the gas pumps slowly leeching into the soil.
triceratops 3y ago
That's only $21B a year until 2030. Pretty cheap, considering you can wipe a good chunk of carbon emissions and get cleaner air in the bargain. Plus less dependency on foreign energy sources.
ecshafer 3y ago
$127B on chargers... China can build high speed rail at $20M per mile. If we actually built the lines instead of just political graft we could build 6350 miles of high speed rail for that price. That is coast to coast rail 2.5 times. EVs also increase road wear and tear by a large factor, since they are so heavy. Trains have much lower wear and tear maintenance costs. If you couple this with some densification by removing zoning, the health savings alone from people walking more would pay for high speed rail. But no we will build 28M electric chargers for cars instead.
- Kirby64 3y ago
  Why one and not the other? You think china isn't building tons of EV chargers themselves too? High speed rail is nice and all but realistically you're needing to solve the issue of people commuting to work or commuting around town. High speed rail doesn't solve that really at all. You need local transit solutions.
  - ecshafer 3y ago
    Trains can be used for local transit solutions also.
    - Kirby64 3y ago
      In some situations, yes. In the large majority of the US: no, they can't. Not without significant policy changes that will take decades to accomplish. We're stuck with cars whether you like it or not, so best to optimize within the constraints we have.
simne 3y ago
This is good opportunity for do business on chargers or on installation. So for right person, right question, how to defend investments.
ZeroGravitas 3y ago
55 - 127 is the range given. For public charging they estimate that current commitments are on track: > Existing announcements put the United States on a path to meet 2030 investment needs. This report estimates that a $31–$55-billion cumulative capital investment in publicly accessible charging infrastructure is necessary to support a mid-adoption scenario of 33 million PEVs on the road by 2030. As of March 2023, we estimate $23.7 billion of capital has been announced for publicly accessible light-duty PEV charging infrastructure through the end of the decade,8 including from private firms, the public sector (including federal, state, and local governments), and electric utilities.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  For comparison, Americans spend about $560B/year on fuel. https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/data-gas-inflation https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/data-gas-inflat...
  - cdot2 3y ago
    It would probably be more reasonable to compare the cost of building gas stations
    - triceratops 3y ago
      The chargers would be artificially cheaper though. The land for the gas stations has already been acquired, they've been hooked up to utilities. Installing chargers at them will be a fraction of the cost of originally building them out.
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      Nah, because the cost of electricity is so much lower (half the cost per mile), you pay the charging investment upfront, buying lower go forward fuel costs for the US fleet (and more drivers switch to EVs when they won’t have range anxiety or concern charging infra won’t be where they need it). Think national mobility energy infra total cost of ownership. You’re also taking off the road, rail, and sea energy transport (something like 40% of commercial ocean shipping is moving energy around, and there are 100k tanker trucks delivering fuel to fuel stations in the US [1]). It’s also energy dollars that now stay in the US versus whatever portion would’ve gone to OPEC or another foreign petroleum seller (although a fraction of those dollars might make their way to foreign investors in US generation). The gains happen faster if your target gasoline superusers first [2] [3]. TLDR you’re paying to spin the flywheel up. [1] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-of-all-ship-cargoes-are-oil-coal-and-gas/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-... [2] https://coltura.org/gasoline-superusers-2-report/ https://coltura.org/gasoline-superusers-2-report/ [3] https://coltura.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Infographic-Gasoline-Superusers-2.0.pdf https://coltura.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Infographic-G...
boeingUH60 3y ago
The miracle of capitalism is that if there's a mass demand for something, it somehow just appears. I'm sure private investors can pony up $127 billion within a few years if there's profit to be made.
therealdkz 3y ago
i think that for such a noble cause we can easily afford two weeks of fed money printing
bdcravens 3y ago
The Apollo space program cost $200B (in today's dollars)
- thebruce87m 3y ago
  Does that count as a plug-in hybrid vehicle?

gottorf 3y ago

For a comparable figure, in 2022, Congress approved $113B in aid to Ukraine.

metadat 3y ago

$4,500 per charger+install isn't too bad, considering the material and labor costs.

sokoloff 3y ago
> require 26.8 million Level 1 and Level 2 ports at single-family homes, apartments and other locations That’s the counts for Level 1 and 2 chargers. Level 1 chargers are “a regular outlet and a $150 EVSE”. Level 2 is “a larger outlet/breaker and a $500-750 EVSE”. The projected $72B for that portion seems crazy high to me to be honest.
- metadat 3y ago
  There could be additional electrical, cement, and other work required beyond just mounting the charger. Not to mention the planning and permit process. Also, labor is expensive these days. It's not going to be a single person doing the entire install alone. This is the standard quo in any first tier country today.
  - sokoloff 3y ago
    Basically all the installs in single-family homes will be zero or one electrician. (Zero if the install is “plug in the L1 charger from Amazon to the existing outlet in the garage”) That will drag the average down quite a bit.
    - metadat 3y ago
      The downtown ones will easily soak up all excess resources allocated. :-/
abracadaniel 3y ago
A fraction of what it will cost to clean up all of the gas pumps slowly leeching into the soil.

triceratops 3y ago

That's only $21B a year until 2030. Pretty cheap, considering you can wipe a good chunk of carbon emissions and get cleaner air in the bargain. Plus less dependency on foreign energy sources.

ecshafer 3y ago

$127B on chargers... China can build high speed rail at $20M per mile. If we actually built the lines instead of just political graft we could build 6350 miles of high speed rail for that price. That is coast to coast rail 2.5 times. EVs also increase road wear and tear by a large factor, since they are so heavy. Trains have much lower wear and tear maintenance costs. If you couple this with some densification by removing zoning, the health savings alone from people walking more would pay for high speed rail. But no we will build 28M electric chargers for cars instead.

Kirby64 3y ago
Why one and not the other? You think china isn't building tons of EV chargers themselves too? High speed rail is nice and all but realistically you're needing to solve the issue of people commuting to work or commuting around town. High speed rail doesn't solve that really at all. You need local transit solutions.
- ecshafer 3y ago
  Trains can be used for local transit solutions also.
  - Kirby64 3y ago
    In some situations, yes. In the large majority of the US: no, they can't. Not without significant policy changes that will take decades to accomplish. We're stuck with cars whether you like it or not, so best to optimize within the constraints we have.

simne 3y ago

This is good opportunity for do business on chargers or on installation. So for right person, right question, how to defend investments.

ZeroGravitas 3y ago

55 - 127 is the range given. For public charging they estimate that current commitments are on track: > Existing announcements put the United States on a path to meet 2030 investment needs. This report estimates that a $31–$55-billion cumulative capital investment in publicly accessible charging infrastructure is necessary to support a mid-adoption scenario of 33 million PEVs on the road by 2030. As of March 2023, we estimate $23.7 billion of capital has been announced for publicly accessible light-duty PEV charging infrastructure through the end of the decade,8 including from private firms, the public sector (including federal, state, and local governments), and electric utilities.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
For comparison, Americans spend about $560B/year on fuel. https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/data-gas-inflation https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/data-gas-inflat...
- cdot2 3y ago
  It would probably be more reasonable to compare the cost of building gas stations
  - triceratops 3y ago
    The chargers would be artificially cheaper though. The land for the gas stations has already been acquired, they've been hooked up to utilities. Installing chargers at them will be a fraction of the cost of originally building them out.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Nah, because the cost of electricity is so much lower (half the cost per mile), you pay the charging investment upfront, buying lower go forward fuel costs for the US fleet (and more drivers switch to EVs when they won’t have range anxiety or concern charging infra won’t be where they need it). Think national mobility energy infra total cost of ownership. You’re also taking off the road, rail, and sea energy transport (something like 40% of commercial ocean shipping is moving energy around, and there are 100k tanker trucks delivering fuel to fuel stations in the US [1]). It’s also energy dollars that now stay in the US versus whatever portion would’ve gone to OPEC or another foreign petroleum seller (although a fraction of those dollars might make their way to foreign investors in US generation). The gains happen faster if your target gasoline superusers first [2] [3]. TLDR you’re paying to spin the flywheel up. [1] https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-of-all-ship-cargoes-are-oil-coal-and-gas/ https://thelastdriverlicenseholder.com/2022/01/12/almost-40-... [2] https://coltura.org/gasoline-superusers-2-report/ https://coltura.org/gasoline-superusers-2-report/ [3] https://coltura.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Infographic-Gasoline-Superusers-2.0.pdf https://coltura.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Infographic-G...

boeingUH60 3y ago

The miracle of capitalism is that if there's a mass demand for something, it somehow just appears. I'm sure private investors can pony up $127 billion within a few years if there's profit to be made.

therealdkz 3y ago

i think that for such a noble cause we can easily afford two weeks of fed money printing

bdcravens 3y ago

The Apollo space program cost $200B (in today's dollars)

thebruce87m 3y ago
Does that count as a plug-in hybrid vehicle?