6 ms·

No you couldn't.

by TulliusCicero 3y ago

No you couldn't.

konart 3y ago
Depends on country we are talking about.
- Pyramus 3y ago
  Okay, then please propose a concrete example with costs of labor, premium for print subscription etc. Happy to be proven wrong, but USD 2500 seems unrealistic.
  - swores 3y ago
    I've just done that in reply to your previous comment, but will add here: they said "pay the person who delivers my daily newspaper", so it's $2500 on top of an existing delivery, not $2500 including paying for a new subscription & deliveries. edit: oops I noticed the other comment I replied to wasn't you, but anyway - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36629620 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36629620
    - Pyramus 3y ago
      No worries, appreciate your concrete calculation. I would argue it's just one more convenient assumption that leads us away from a realistic estimation. It seems to me USD 2500 is an idealistic best case scenario.
  - akagr 3y ago
    I live in India. My newspaper costs ₹230 a month. That's ₹2,760 a year and ₹27,600 for a decade (not factoring inflation). At today's conversion rates, that's $333.58 for entire decade. If I pay the remaining amount of $2166.42 to the delivery person over 10 years, that's about ₹1493 per month, which is over 6 times the cost of newspaper subscription. For that amount, yeah, they'll be happy to hang the paper on a wall.
  - oefrha 3y ago
    $250 is a tad lower than the median monthly salary in India. I bet you can find hundreds of millions of people willing to earn a cool $0.7 a day doing something as easy as this. That’s a meal or two for a poor person.
  - konart 3y ago
    Someone already used India as an example. With millions of people living in conditions where even safe drinkable water is not something you are guaranteed to get - 250$/year equivalent seems wild.
swores 3y ago
Depends on the person but it doesn't seem completely impossible - ignoring inflation, $250/yr for <5mins a day (part of an existing delivery route, so no worrying about the commute time except from front door to wall hanging location - realistically could be 2 mins rather than 5 but say 5 to be conservative) is ~30hrs for 365 days, so ~$8/hr. If they can manage it in 3min rather than 5, it's up to $13.70/hr. Where I am (UK) I think most newspaper delivery people are aged 13-18, and while there's far less of them about than when I was a kid, I wouldn't be surprised if >50% would be willing to do it to earn an extra $4.80/week. Of course, you also need to trust the person to come into your house every day, either giving them a key or being available to let them in each time; and while I skipped over inflation it's likely that $250 in ten years has devalued a lot - but maybe you could get a yea for just $150-200/yr at the start to have room for annual increases... So I don't think your curt dismissal adds much to the conversation. And that's feasibility thinking about US/UK people, as konart points out in their comment there are countries where $250/yr stretches much further than in wealthy, high-CoL countries.
- Pyramus 3y ago
  You have conveniently left out the cost differential for the printed edition, and you are conveniently pricing the trust/risk/hassle that comes with it at 0. And even in this case I doubt the USD 5 pw is the market price, you are basically assuming there is a kid, who values extra pocket money. So all in all, USD 2500 seems unrealistic.
  - swores 3y ago
    The assumption about a kid for pocket money is relevant because a) lots of people doing the job of delivery papers are kids already and b) even if they're not, they're some doing the same job for minimum or less than minimum wage so presumably have similar desire or need for earning money for simple work. And as mentioned, the person who suggested it being possible was talking about using an existing physical subscription not paying for that within the $2.5k
- IndigoIncognito 3y ago
  You should become a quant analyst, seems like you enjoy math
Daviey 3y ago
My 13 y/o son delivers newspapers, he earns £24 per week for 6 mornings. He delivers around 16 newspapers a day. (£24/16)/6 days = £0.25 per paper. 365 days per year at £0.25 per day is £91.25 per year. The most popular printed newspaper is the Daily Mail, I have no idea what the wholesale cost is, but the retail price is £30.33 per month So, worst case is £363.96 per year - but my expectation is that it is half that. $2500 USD is currently £1946.66 £91.25 + £363.96 = £455.21 So, you totally can get the paper delivered by a 13 year old boy for ~4.25 years, by which time he'll retire off to college. However, if my premise is that wholesale cost of the paper is half what I thought it is, then 10 years sounds about right. EDIT: I checked with him, and if you live close enough he'd be willing to come in and stick it on your wall every day, as long as he can get home in time for school.

No you couldn't.

konart 3y ago

Depends on country we are talking about.

Pyramus 3y ago
Okay, then please propose a concrete example with costs of labor, premium for print subscription etc. Happy to be proven wrong, but USD 2500 seems unrealistic.
- swores 3y ago
  I've just done that in reply to your previous comment, but will add here: they said "pay the person who delivers my daily newspaper", so it's $2500 on top of an existing delivery, not $2500 including paying for a new subscription & deliveries. edit: oops I noticed the other comment I replied to wasn't you, but anyway - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36629620 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36629620
  - Pyramus 3y ago
    No worries, appreciate your concrete calculation. I would argue it's just one more convenient assumption that leads us away from a realistic estimation. It seems to me USD 2500 is an idealistic best case scenario.
- akagr 3y ago
  I live in India. My newspaper costs ₹230 a month. That's ₹2,760 a year and ₹27,600 for a decade (not factoring inflation). At today's conversion rates, that's $333.58 for entire decade. If I pay the remaining amount of $2166.42 to the delivery person over 10 years, that's about ₹1493 per month, which is over 6 times the cost of newspaper subscription. For that amount, yeah, they'll be happy to hang the paper on a wall.
- oefrha 3y ago
  $250 is a tad lower than the median monthly salary in India. I bet you can find hundreds of millions of people willing to earn a cool $0.7 a day doing something as easy as this. That’s a meal or two for a poor person.
- konart 3y ago
  Someone already used India as an example. With millions of people living in conditions where even safe drinkable water is not something you are guaranteed to get - 250$/year equivalent seems wild.

swores 3y ago

Depends on the person but it doesn't seem completely impossible - ignoring inflation, $250/yr for <5mins a day (part of an existing delivery route, so no worrying about the commute time except from front door to wall hanging location - realistically could be 2 mins rather than 5 but say 5 to be conservative) is ~30hrs for 365 days, so ~$8/hr. If they can manage it in 3min rather than 5, it's up to $13.70/hr. Where I am (UK) I think most newspaper delivery people are aged 13-18, and while there's far less of them about than when I was a kid, I wouldn't be surprised if >50% would be willing to do it to earn an extra $4.80/week. Of course, you also need to trust the person to come into your house every day, either giving them a key or being available to let them in each time; and while I skipped over inflation it's likely that $250 in ten years has devalued a lot - but maybe you could get a yea for just $150-200/yr at the start to have room for annual increases... So I don't think your curt dismissal adds much to the conversation. And that's feasibility thinking about US/UK people, as konart points out in their comment there are countries where $250/yr stretches much further than in wealthy, high-CoL countries.

Pyramus 3y ago
You have conveniently left out the cost differential for the printed edition, and you are conveniently pricing the trust/risk/hassle that comes with it at 0. And even in this case I doubt the USD 5 pw is the market price, you are basically assuming there is a kid, who values extra pocket money. So all in all, USD 2500 seems unrealistic.
- swores 3y ago
  The assumption about a kid for pocket money is relevant because a) lots of people doing the job of delivery papers are kids already and b) even if they're not, they're some doing the same job for minimum or less than minimum wage so presumably have similar desire or need for earning money for simple work. And as mentioned, the person who suggested it being possible was talking about using an existing physical subscription not paying for that within the $2.5k
IndigoIncognito 3y ago
You should become a quant analyst, seems like you enjoy math

Daviey 3y ago

My 13 y/o son delivers newspapers, he earns £24 per week for 6 mornings. He delivers around 16 newspapers a day. (£24/16)/6 days = £0.25 per paper. 365 days per year at £0.25 per day is £91.25 per year. The most popular printed newspaper is the Daily Mail, I have no idea what the wholesale cost is, but the retail price is £30.33 per month So, worst case is £363.96 per year - but my expectation is that it is half that. $2500 USD is currently £1946.66 £91.25 + £363.96 = £455.21 So, you totally can get the paper delivered by a 13 year old boy for ~4.25 years, by which time he'll retire off to college. However, if my premise is that wholesale cost of the paper is half what I thought it is, then 10 years sounds about right. EDIT: I checked with him, and if you live close enough he'd be willing to come in and stick it on your wall every day, as long as he can get home in time for school.