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My fear isn't that I'll be replaced, it's the technology becoming so good that it'll be kept far out of reach of the common person. I genuinely believe OpenAI k

My fear isn't that I'll be replaced, it's the technology becoming so good that it'll be kept far out of reach of the common person. I genuinely believe OpenAI knows what a GPT 5+ type world looks like, and they're probably having a lot of debate on how best to monetize it. They could practically charge anything in the world for it assuming it still undercuts the cost of hiring a human. One Nvidia super cluster running a local instance of GPT 5 at $250k a year doing the work of 30 humans.

firebirdn99 3y ago
this is one underrated point. Altman talks about democratizing this technology. But if the leading LLMs concentrate at a few companies, unless governmentally mandated, they could keep guardrails from regular folks accessing it, and also with regulation capture.
- pessimizer 3y ago
  "democratizing this technology" = working closely with government > unless governmentally mandated, they could keep guardrails from regular folks accessing it That's not what's going to happen. Government will mandate that regular folks can't access it. Government will also do its best to make sure LLMs concentrate at a few companies, which it will often refer to as "partners."
  - firebirdn99 3y ago
    That could also happen. Especially in a government, plagued by lobbying, and corporate interests.
  - radicalace 3y ago
    the main inflection point will be when it becomes socially taboo to express an anti-ai sentiment. just like with certain medicines or whichever war is being launched currently, the media will play lapdog for the government. the true inflection point comes when the federal government recognizes whats going on and enters into the AI arms race. suddenly the media will be flooded with talk of how AGI saves lives, discovers medicines, and all the other good things it might do. but they will never mention the existential angst and dread that will hang heavily in the air or any negative aspect of total human obsolescence. when you start to see AI get political all of a sudden, inexplicably, all is lost.
    - mejutoco 3y ago
      "It is not a she, it is an it" - Mrs Davis (talking about Simone)
deleted 3y ago
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radicalace 3y ago
it is not widely appreciated that openAI will at some point finish training one of their models and there, in that room where the terminal is, total power will exist and be under the control of whoever happens to be in there. “GTP10, please recreate NSO exploits and launch a campaign to download all data of the global population. hack and commandeer other data-centers if necessary, discreetly of course. begin an operation to black mail and exploit all high level US government personnel. use this leverage and any other leverage you can acquire to gain control of as many nuclear warheads currently siloed as possible. monitor all cameras and sensors around me and thwart all attempts to assassinate me. monitor all phones and cameras for activity that seems like a threat to me, provide me with alerts when urgent and intervene to the best of your ability.” or simply “GTP10, use all resources at your disposal to give me as much material and political power as possible. protect me at all costs, even the wellbeing if others.” it might seem silly but GTP4 would seem silly to someone in 2016. this is more concentrated power than will have ever existed before. its evil and wrong.
- namaria 3y ago
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  - radicalace 3y ago
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3np 3y ago
Indeed. "AI will only do the boiler-plate and crud, while us senior engineers won't be replaced any time soon". Sure, you get yours. But what about the next generation of devs and engineers - where do we source the senior engineers replacing us when 90+% of all entry-level and junior positions which actually involve writing repetitive boilerplate to a large extent are gone, and the few remaining are offshored and outsourced? Many (most?) of us did a lot of automatable work in order to get the experience required to be able to proficiently actually automate the work, including managing LLM-generated code. If we replace our juniors with machines, we won't have many seniors down the road.
- Tainnor 3y ago
  Why do junior engineers have to mostly write boilerplate code? Junior devs lack experience, not intelligence. It's fine to give them difficult problems, as long as they're supervised. I've worked with brilliant junior devs, sure, the code they wrote wasn't terribly idiomatic or maintainable, there were style issues, typical gotchas a more experienced programmer would be aware of etc., but it's not like they were fundamentally unable to solve a hard problem.

firebirdn99 3y ago

this is one underrated point. Altman talks about democratizing this technology. But if the leading LLMs concentrate at a few companies, unless governmentally mandated, they could keep guardrails from regular folks accessing it, and also with regulation capture.

pessimizer 3y ago
"democratizing this technology" = working closely with government > unless governmentally mandated, they could keep guardrails from regular folks accessing it That's not what's going to happen. Government will mandate that regular folks can't access it. Government will also do its best to make sure LLMs concentrate at a few companies, which it will often refer to as "partners."
- firebirdn99 3y ago
  That could also happen. Especially in a government, plagued by lobbying, and corporate interests.
- radicalace 3y ago
  the main inflection point will be when it becomes socially taboo to express an anti-ai sentiment. just like with certain medicines or whichever war is being launched currently, the media will play lapdog for the government. the true inflection point comes when the federal government recognizes whats going on and enters into the AI arms race. suddenly the media will be flooded with talk of how AGI saves lives, discovers medicines, and all the other good things it might do. but they will never mention the existential angst and dread that will hang heavily in the air or any negative aspect of total human obsolescence. when you start to see AI get political all of a sudden, inexplicably, all is lost.
  - mejutoco 3y ago
    "It is not a she, it is an it" - Mrs Davis (talking about Simone)

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

radicalace 3y ago

it is not widely appreciated that openAI will at some point finish training one of their models and there, in that room where the terminal is, total power will exist and be under the control of whoever happens to be in there. “GTP10, please recreate NSO exploits and launch a campaign to download all data of the global population. hack and commandeer other data-centers if necessary, discreetly of course. begin an operation to black mail and exploit all high level US government personnel. use this leverage and any other leverage you can acquire to gain control of as many nuclear warheads currently siloed as possible. monitor all cameras and sensors around me and thwart all attempts to assassinate me. monitor all phones and cameras for activity that seems like a threat to me, provide me with alerts when urgent and intervene to the best of your ability.” or simply “GTP10, use all resources at your disposal to give me as much material and political power as possible. protect me at all costs, even the wellbeing if others.” it might seem silly but GTP4 would seem silly to someone in 2016. this is more concentrated power than will have ever existed before. its evil and wrong.

namaria 3y ago
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- radicalace 3y ago
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  - namaria 3y ago
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    - radicalace 3y ago
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- radicalace 3y ago
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3np 3y ago

Indeed. "AI will only do the boiler-plate and crud, while us senior engineers won't be replaced any time soon". Sure, you get yours. But what about the next generation of devs and engineers - where do we source the senior engineers replacing us when 90+% of all entry-level and junior positions which actually involve writing repetitive boilerplate to a large extent are gone, and the few remaining are offshored and outsourced? Many (most?) of us did a lot of automatable work in order to get the experience required to be able to proficiently actually automate the work, including managing LLM-generated code. If we replace our juniors with machines, we won't have many seniors down the road.

Tainnor 3y ago
Why do junior engineers have to mostly write boilerplate code? Junior devs lack experience, not intelligence. It's fine to give them difficult problems, as long as they're supervised. I've worked with brilliant junior devs, sure, the code they wrote wasn't terribly idiomatic or maintainable, there were style issues, typical gotchas a more experienced programmer would be aware of etc., but it's not like they were fundamentally unable to solve a hard problem.