7 ms·

Immortality for the extremely wealthy perhaps. The rest of us, at best, will have just enough to keep being productive, until we are no longer needed.

by otikik 3y ago

optimalsolver 3y ago
Think of rich people as beta testers.
- ben_w 3y ago
  It's in the interest of the rich for the poor to be the beta testers. When anti-aging becomes real rather than fantasy, there are going to be so many mutually incompatible conspiracy theories.
  - midoridensha 3y ago
    >It's in the interest of the rich for the poor to be the beta testers. You're assuming the rich are rational. The billionaires on the OceanGate Titan didn't think this way; they were perfectly happy to beta-test a shoddily-designed sub.
    - ben_w 3y ago
      I was half tempted to reference that myself, but if I had, someone else would have replied with all the testing SpaceX does. (The recent explosion was such a test). (And that sub had apparently been to depth before? I didn't follow the details…)
      - midoridensha 3y ago
        The fact that one billionaire's company does a decent job testing doesn't mean that billionaire customers are paying attention, or that other billionaires aren't happy to be beta-testers for a different company that doesn't believe in testing or safety or regulation. I think the OceanGate disaster just shows that billionaires aren't any smarter or more rational than the rest of us.
osigurdson 3y ago
What if becomes super cheap? I think immortality would be bad for humanity, but ~40 more productive years would be beneficial. Currently we take 25 years of preparation in order to work 35.
- q845712 3y ago
  but there's a premium on our youth -- The people who complain that it's harder to find a job in their 50s and 60s can't _all_ be wrong or mistaken. I feel like we like to imagine that these treatments would extend our 20s and 30s, but what if they extend our 60s instead?
  - zachthewf 3y ago
    Most people I know in their 60s would way rather be in their 60s than dead
  - blagie 3y ago
    They can't all be wrong or mistaken, but there can be a very strong sample bias. I can go into a longer diatribe here, but the short story is: 1) Most people have a hard time finding jobs at any age. Recent college grads can't all be wrong. :) 2) There is always a strong reversion to mean 3) Most of the people in their 50s or 60s whom I hear complaining were an outlier for employability for their age group in their 20s and 30s (e.g. straight out of Stanford). Most older people I know are /very/ employable, and don't complain. Another pathway: - Finish a state college. Have a very hard time finding a first job. - Work up the career ladder, and build up a resume, reputation, and track record. - Much easier time finding jobs in their 50s and 60s than straight out of college or early career. Some of this also has to do with bust/boom cycles. People who entered the workforce during recessions had a hard time finding a job in their 20s, and then found things comparatively easy. People who entered during a boom cycle are the opposite.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
  - osigurdson 3y ago
jstummbillig 3y ago
Can you reason through the gloom? Unless immortality comes with built in invincibility, I don't see how it would not have to be democratized pretty much immediately to avoid civil unrest of the outmost proportions. Also I don't see what would be to gain to not do it for those in power.
- otikik 3y ago
  Just look at what we let them get away with now. I’m sure a lot of people would defend the arrangement. “Of course Elon Musk can have inmortality and you don’t. He’s a genius”.
  - p1esk 3y ago
    Is there anything in terms of healthcare that is only available to billionaires today (not available to middle class)?
    - sumeno 3y ago
      Not going bankrupt
      - inglor_cz 3y ago
        Again, not everywhere is America. In fact, most of the world isn't America. Don't judge the prospects of the entire humanity by the pathology that is called the US healthcare system.
  - inglor_cz 3y ago
    Ironically, Musk is a longevity skeptic himself. Bezos would be the guy, spending billions on Altos Labs.
  - jstummbillig 3y ago
    I am sure most would not.
pinguin3 3y ago
Only if they don’t live. Doing anything in life has risk: flying, driving etc
- DennisP 3y ago
  People in their twenties have an annual chance of dying of about one in a thousand, so effective anti-aging would give an expected lifespan of about a thousand years. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html Based on the rates of various types of accidental deaths, you could extend that quite a bit by avoiding dangerous drugs and and living in an area where you're unlikely to get shot. If we figure out really safe self-driving cars, that'll make a big difference too. In much of Europe you can already get the same effect by taking public transport everywhere. Air travel is quite unlikely to kill you. https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-risk https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortalit... Put all that together and a 10,000-year expected lifespan looks pretty achievable.
- JPLeRouzic 3y ago
  And some cells do not reproduce (neurons, etc), so you have to keep them in good shape, except this is impossible. For example 1/3 people are infected with Herpes virus which stays in their neurons. In addition some cells reproduce only a few times, often only during youth. And there is sometimes involution like in thymus.
  - jayGlow 3y ago
    those cells reproduce at some point, I imagine that if aging can be reversed new cell growth could also be stimulated.
    - JPLeRouzic 3y ago
      > "those cells reproduce at some point," No some cells never reproduce, for example motor neurons. > "I imagine that if aging can be reversed new cell growth could also be stimulated." I have a hard time to imagine how to replace a up to one meter/yard long cell with sometimes hundred of synapses which is surrounded by cells such as astroglia and microglia that are equally important.
imtringued 3y ago
Now you get to rent your youthful body for a low fee of 5000€ per month. [0] [0] Cancelling the subscription may result in accelerated aging and immediate organ and heart failure.
midoridensha 3y ago
If it's technological and not limited by some natural scarcity of components, there's no reason for this to be the case, just like everyone these days can afford a smartphone that looks like sci-fi to someone from the year 2000.

Immortality for the extremely wealthy perhaps. The rest of us, at best, will have just enough to keep being productive, until we are no longer needed.

by otikik 3y ago

Immortality for the extremely wealthy perhaps. The rest of us, at best, will have just enough to keep being productive, until we are no longer needed.

optimalsolver 3y ago

Think of rich people as beta testers.

ben_w 3y ago
It's in the interest of the rich for the poor to be the beta testers. When anti-aging becomes real rather than fantasy, there are going to be so many mutually incompatible conspiracy theories.
- midoridensha 3y ago
  >It's in the interest of the rich for the poor to be the beta testers. You're assuming the rich are rational. The billionaires on the OceanGate Titan didn't think this way; they were perfectly happy to beta-test a shoddily-designed sub.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    I was half tempted to reference that myself, but if I had, someone else would have replied with all the testing SpaceX does. (The recent explosion was such a test). (And that sub had apparently been to depth before? I didn't follow the details…)
    - midoridensha 3y ago
      The fact that one billionaire's company does a decent job testing doesn't mean that billionaire customers are paying attention, or that other billionaires aren't happy to be beta-testers for a different company that doesn't believe in testing or safety or regulation. I think the OceanGate disaster just shows that billionaires aren't any smarter or more rational than the rest of us.

osigurdson 3y ago

What if becomes super cheap? I think immortality would be bad for humanity, but ~40 more productive years would be beneficial. Currently we take 25 years of preparation in order to work 35.

q845712 3y ago
but there's a premium on our youth -- The people who complain that it's harder to find a job in their 50s and 60s can't _all_ be wrong or mistaken. I feel like we like to imagine that these treatments would extend our 20s and 30s, but what if they extend our 60s instead?
- zachthewf 3y ago
  Most people I know in their 60s would way rather be in their 60s than dead
- blagie 3y ago
  They can't all be wrong or mistaken, but there can be a very strong sample bias. I can go into a longer diatribe here, but the short story is: 1) Most people have a hard time finding jobs at any age. Recent college grads can't all be wrong. :) 2) There is always a strong reversion to mean 3) Most of the people in their 50s or 60s whom I hear complaining were an outlier for employability for their age group in their 20s and 30s (e.g. straight out of Stanford). Most older people I know are /very/ employable, and don't complain. Another pathway: - Finish a state college. Have a very hard time finding a first job. - Work up the career ladder, and build up a resume, reputation, and track record. - Much easier time finding jobs in their 50s and 60s than straight out of college or early career. Some of this also has to do with bust/boom cycles. People who entered the workforce during recessions had a hard time finding a job in their 20s, and then found things comparatively easy. People who entered during a boom cycle are the opposite.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- osigurdson 3y ago

jstummbillig 3y ago

Can you reason through the gloom? Unless immortality comes with built in invincibility, I don't see how it would not have to be democratized pretty much immediately to avoid civil unrest of the outmost proportions. Also I don't see what would be to gain to not do it for those in power.

otikik 3y ago
Just look at what we let them get away with now. I’m sure a lot of people would defend the arrangement. “Of course Elon Musk can have inmortality and you don’t. He’s a genius”.
- p1esk 3y ago
  Is there anything in terms of healthcare that is only available to billionaires today (not available to middle class)?
  - sumeno 3y ago
    Not going bankrupt
    - inglor_cz 3y ago
      Again, not everywhere is America. In fact, most of the world isn't America. Don't judge the prospects of the entire humanity by the pathology that is called the US healthcare system.
- inglor_cz 3y ago
  Ironically, Musk is a longevity skeptic himself. Bezos would be the guy, spending billions on Altos Labs.
- jstummbillig 3y ago
  I am sure most would not.

pinguin3 3y ago

Only if they don’t live. Doing anything in life has risk: flying, driving etc

DennisP 3y ago
People in their twenties have an annual chance of dying of about one in a thousand, so effective anti-aging would give an expected lifespan of about a thousand years. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html Based on the rates of various types of accidental deaths, you could extend that quite a bit by avoiding dangerous drugs and and living in an area where you're unlikely to get shot. If we figure out really safe self-driving cars, that'll make a big difference too. In much of Europe you can already get the same effect by taking public transport everywhere. Air travel is quite unlikely to kill you. https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortality-risk https://www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-mortalit... Put all that together and a 10,000-year expected lifespan looks pretty achievable.
JPLeRouzic 3y ago
And some cells do not reproduce (neurons, etc), so you have to keep them in good shape, except this is impossible. For example 1/3 people are infected with Herpes virus which stays in their neurons. In addition some cells reproduce only a few times, often only during youth. And there is sometimes involution like in thymus.
- jayGlow 3y ago
  those cells reproduce at some point, I imagine that if aging can be reversed new cell growth could also be stimulated.
  - JPLeRouzic 3y ago
    > "those cells reproduce at some point," No some cells never reproduce, for example motor neurons. > "I imagine that if aging can be reversed new cell growth could also be stimulated." I have a hard time to imagine how to replace a up to one meter/yard long cell with sometimes hundred of synapses which is surrounded by cells such as astroglia and microglia that are equally important.

imtringued 3y ago

Now you get to rent your youthful body for a low fee of 5000€ per month. [0] [0] Cancelling the subscription may result in accelerated aging and immediate organ and heart failure.

midoridensha 3y ago

If it's technological and not limited by some natural scarcity of components, there's no reason for this to be the case, just like everyone these days can afford a smartphone that looks like sci-fi to someone from the year 2000.