5 ms·

This is a great way to put it. The counter to "current generation AI is terrifying" seems to fall along the lines of it not being nearly as close to AGI as the

by tyre 3y ago

This is a great way to put it. The counter to "current generation AI is terrifying" seems to fall along the lines of it not being nearly as close to AGI as the layperson believes. But I don't think that matters. I don't believe that LLMs or image/voice/video generative models need to do much beyond what they can do today in order to wreck civilization level disaster. They don't need to become Skynet, learn to operate drone armies, hack critical infrastructure, or engineer pandemics. LLMs allow dynamic, adaptive, scalable, and targeted propaganda. Already we have seen the effects of social media's reach combined with brute forced content generation. LLMs allow this to happen faster and at a higher fidelity. That could be enough to tip the balance and trigger a world war. I don't think it takes a huge amount of faked primary material (generated phone calls, fuzzy video, etc.) that's massively amplified until it becomes "true enough" to drive a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a Russian tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine, an armed insurrection in the United States. We're close to there already.

YetAnotherNick 3y ago
GPT4 really "doesn't want" be racist against blacks. Like try talking to it, there is(was) no hard filter but I really can't grasp how the bias can go this deep just by finetuning. GPT-4 definitely know all the stereotypes of blacks, but good luck getting it to engage on any. Suppose we finetune it exactly like that but say opposing democracy or freedom or peace or any other thing we value. And let it create the propoganda or convince people for the same by free posting on the net. "As an AI language model" line could easily be removed.
- sitkack 3y ago
  Everything is its own mirror. Found the cure to cancer? Maybe also made a cancer gun at the same time.
JimtheCoder 3y ago
Doesn't this only work if everyone is stupid and believes everything they see/read/hear on the internet? You have to have a little more faith in humanity than that...
- flangola7 3y ago
  With respect: *Have you been living under a rock?*
  - JimtheCoder 3y ago
    No, I have not. I do not judge humanity as a whole based on a very vocal minority...
    - flangola7 3y ago
      I didn't say anything about judging people. I hold no ill will here. But I've ran trust&safety and now cybersecurity for a decade - humans are not cut out for memetic warfare. Humans cannot handle normal but internet-speed incidental misinformation without society eating itself, much less coordinated disinformation. Democracy is eroding all across the globe and that's without generative systems that will make the problem 1000x worse. We evolved to pick berries, not discriminate and identify distant manipulative actors with extensive resources. "You are not immune to propaganda."
- anigbrowl 3y ago
  No. You just need a minority of people. And they don't have to be stupid; they can be equally motivated by mendacity, spreading untruths because its fun or because they will discomfit political opponents. About 30% of humans are willing to suffer some sort of loss or disadvantage in order to inflict a larger one on a counterparty; that might seem irrational, but some people are just mean. You have to have a little more faith in humanity than that... I used to, but then I grew out of it.
anigbrowl 3y ago
I think LLMs are very close to AGI, lacking only the real-time feedback element (easily enough replicated by running them off batteries). I'm also more sanguine about the existential risks because I have somewhat more confidence in the rationality of AGI than I do in that of humans. I don't think it takes a huge amount of faked primary material (generated phone calls, fuzzy video, etc.) that's massively amplified until it becomes "true enough" to drive a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a Russian tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine, an armed insurrection in the United States. This I agree with 100%. Modern information warfare is about constructing reliable viral cascades, and numerous influencers devote themselves to exactly that for various mixes of profit an ideology. Of your 3 scenarios the third seems most likely to me, and is arguably already in progress. The other two are equally plausible, but imho dictatorships tend to centralize control of IW campaigns to such a degree that they lack some of the organic characteristics of grassroots campaign. Incumbent dictators' instinct for demagoguery is often tempered with a desire for dignity and respectability on the world stage, which might be a reason than civil strife and oppression tends to be more naked and ruthless in less developed countries where international credibility matters less.
- sitkack 3y ago
  In other news an LLM mind virus is sweeping across the Midwest, face book has instituted a post delay queue and free Disney+

by tyre 3y ago

YetAnotherNick 3y ago

GPT4 really "doesn't want" be racist against blacks. Like try talking to it, there is(was) no hard filter but I really can't grasp how the bias can go this deep just by finetuning. GPT-4 definitely know all the stereotypes of blacks, but good luck getting it to engage on any. Suppose we finetune it exactly like that but say opposing democracy or freedom or peace or any other thing we value. And let it create the propoganda or convince people for the same by free posting on the net. "As an AI language model" line could easily be removed.

sitkack 3y ago
Everything is its own mirror. Found the cure to cancer? Maybe also made a cancer gun at the same time.

JimtheCoder 3y ago

Doesn't this only work if everyone is stupid and believes everything they see/read/hear on the internet? You have to have a little more faith in humanity than that...

flangola7 3y ago
With respect: *Have you been living under a rock?*
- JimtheCoder 3y ago
  No, I have not. I do not judge humanity as a whole based on a very vocal minority...
  - flangola7 3y ago
    I didn't say anything about judging people. I hold no ill will here. But I've ran trust&safety and now cybersecurity for a decade - humans are not cut out for memetic warfare. Humans cannot handle normal but internet-speed incidental misinformation without society eating itself, much less coordinated disinformation. Democracy is eroding all across the globe and that's without generative systems that will make the problem 1000x worse. We evolved to pick berries, not discriminate and identify distant manipulative actors with extensive resources. "You are not immune to propaganda."
anigbrowl 3y ago
No. You just need a minority of people. And they don't have to be stupid; they can be equally motivated by mendacity, spreading untruths because its fun or because they will discomfit political opponents. About 30% of humans are willing to suffer some sort of loss or disadvantage in order to inflict a larger one on a counterparty; that might seem irrational, but some people are just mean. You have to have a little more faith in humanity than that... I used to, but then I grew out of it.

anigbrowl 3y ago

I think LLMs are very close to AGI, lacking only the real-time feedback element (easily enough replicated by running them off batteries). I'm also more sanguine about the existential risks because I have somewhat more confidence in the rationality of AGI than I do in that of humans. I don't think it takes a huge amount of faked primary material (generated phone calls, fuzzy video, etc.) that's massively amplified until it becomes "true enough" to drive a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a Russian tactical nuclear strike in Ukraine, an armed insurrection in the United States. This I agree with 100%. Modern information warfare is about constructing reliable viral cascades, and numerous influencers devote themselves to exactly that for various mixes of profit an ideology. Of your 3 scenarios the third seems most likely to me, and is arguably already in progress. The other two are equally plausible, but imho dictatorships tend to centralize control of IW campaigns to such a degree that they lack some of the organic characteristics of grassroots campaign. Incumbent dictators' instinct for demagoguery is often tempered with a desire for dignity and respectability on the world stage, which might be a reason than civil strife and oppression tends to be more naked and ruthless in less developed countries where international credibility matters less.

sitkack 3y ago
In other news an LLM mind virus is sweeping across the Midwest, face book has instituted a post delay queue and free Disney+