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I am very pessimistic about the future of VR beyond it being super nice for niche cases. But I think there’s something fundamentally good about: 1) Apple takin

I am very pessimistic about the future of VR beyond it being super nice for niche cases. But I think there’s something fundamentally good about: 1) Apple taking a stab at it, because it’s the kind of thing where UX really matters and Apple does UX well. 2) Apple not being trapped in the “if we can’t sell a billion of them then why even bother?” mindset that so many other companies get trapped in, often because they’re not bursting at the seams with cash, talent, and runway.

placatedmayhem 3y ago
> 2) Apple not being trapped in the “if we can’t sell a billion of them then why even bother?” mindset that so many other companies get trapped in, often because they’re not bursting at the seams with cash, talent, and runway. I feel like the iPhone mini being only two years long is a strong counterpoint to this. There's a small hope for an iPhone 15 mini, but with no 14 mini, it's a long shot. It accounted for 6% of all iPhone sales in it's first quarter, after a delayed and rocky launch.[1] There is a small but somewhat vocal minority that want smaller screens, which Linus Tech Tips' sub-channel Mac Address covered recently. [2] [1] https://www.tomsguide.com/news/iphone-12-mini-sales-a-disaster-heres-the-proof https://www.tomsguide.com/news/iphone-12-mini-sales-a-disast... [2] https://youtu.be/BjhiYa0KsSM https://youtu.be/BjhiYa0KsSM
- Waterluvian 3y ago
  A smaller iPhone isn’t exactly an exploratory venture into a new market. And loud minorities don’t make a market.
  - nukeman 3y ago
    Loud minorities can form a market, if they are willing to put their money where their mouth is. But too often they don’t (cf. the “brown manual diesel wagon” from the car world. Enthusiasts say they want one, but when a manufacturer puts one out, they don’t buy enough of them).
    - scarface_74 3y ago
      “Revealed preference”
- BuckRogers 3y ago
  Maybe. But as we’ve seen (https://www.imore.com/iphone/lackluster-iphone-14-plus-sales-prove-the-iphone-mini-should-make-a-comeback https://www.imore.com/iphone/lackluster-iphone-14-plus-sales...), the Minis did outpace the non-Pro 14s. Obviously as the 14s sit on the market if they will outsell the minis. It’s just a matter of essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy of being available and the latest SKU. But the velocity was not there. So expect Apple to react accordingly. I’d like for them to settle on set sizes. Hands aren’t evolving every year, they need to stop screwing around. I use an iPhone 12 mini that I ordered on launch day and love it. Finally a worthy successor to the 5S/SE1.
- scarface_74 3y ago
  There was such a little difference between the 13 and 14 low end models, there was really no purpose for a “14 mini”. If you want a mini phone, you could buy the 13. Apple also doesn’t update the SE every year.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
  Why can does apple need a new mini every year, or even every 2 years? The 13 mini bought today will probably still do everything that 90% of customers need it to do for another 5 years. Even the SE which is 3 years old now can probably do most things for another 5 years. Also, the 12 mini was released 6 months after the 2020 SE, and the 2020 SE was released ~4 years after the previous SE. it stands to reason that many people who wanted a smaller phone jumped on the 2020 SE, and then had no reason to buy a 12 mini. Also, the 12 mini battery life sucked. The 13 mini is perfectly usable though.
detourdog 3y ago
I agree. My guess is that they are at fork in production ramp. They need to choose between high production high risk or low production low risk. If they are 100% certain this is the final form factor they would take one path. If they think we need to get this out in the world and see how it is useful they would take the other.
cubefox 3y ago
> 2) Apple not being trapped in the “if we can’t sell a billion of them then why even bother?” mindset that so many other companies get trapped in It seems to be the opposite with folding phones. A lot of Android manufacturers releasing them, despite low sales numbers, while Apple apparently thinks: if we can’t sell a billion of them then why even bother?
- PNewling 3y ago
  This is a good counterpoint to what was posed above. That being said I feel like this is almost the obverse, they have a product that sells well so they don't need to follow each trend that comes out. So they can pick and choose which way they run with things.
- thebruce87m 3y ago
  Apple are at the “the technology isn’t quite there yet” phase. When they enter the market you’ll know you’ll probably get something semi reliable.
  - rchaud 3y ago
    I'm typing this on a foldable phone right now, which is plenty reliable. One of the enduring myths about Apple's late entry into product sectors is the idea that they're waiting to "get it right". The first iPhone was a joke, it took them until the 3GS to get it right.
    - haswell 3y ago
      > One of the enduring myths about Apple's late entry into product sectors is the idea that they're waiting to "get it right". The first iPhone was a joke, it took them until the 3GS to get it right. I don't agree that this is a myth. If you look at the first generation iPhone in a vacuum, it was limited, perhaps (but I think there are plenty of arguments that the first gen iPhone was pushing envelopes - name one other phone that had a fully functioning web browser at the time, and pinch/zoom felt magical), but nitpicks about functionality aside, I don't think this framing makes sense for other reasons. A product line is not just its initial release. It is a process, an organizational discipline, a manufacturing and logistics pipeline, an ongoing upgrade cycle, an ongoing engagement with customers, an understanding of the market, etc. When the first generation phone was released, plans for the 3GS were already well under way. The 1st gen phone was a necessary step to get you that 3GS. When operating at Apple's scale, at least a decade of roadmap if not more was already planned in depth. The 3GS was not a reaction to the success of the 1, it is the real product Apple envisioned and planned to ship before we even knew the iPhone would exist. If the 3GS got it right, so did the gen 1, in a certain sense. And as an aside, I have to say I really liked my 1st gen iPhone compared to everything else I'd had up to that point, and I was a gadget junkie who had owned quite a few of the other "hot" phones at the time.
robbyking 3y ago
I agree about VR, but I'm really excited for advancements in AR! I'm a really avid mountain biker, road cyclist and snowboarder, and I'd love some basic telemetry displayed in the goggles or glasses I'm already wearing. Nothing kills a ride faster than having to stop to pull out your phone to see if you missed a turn or to figure out which unmarked trail you're supposed to take. (Not to mention all of the information we current have to look down at our cycling computers to see: HR, watts, cadence, etc.)
- mcpackieh 3y ago
  Seems like existing helmet HUD technology should be sufficient for some basic telemetry.
- jmye 3y ago
  As a trail runner, same - I really look forward to a future where decent glasses can show route details/programmable workout info/etc. and I can leave the watch at home. Less crap to carry + more info readily available would be awesome! I know that's not the problem Apple's solving here, but I'm hopeful that anything they can do to push AR will filter down quickly.
  - robbyking 3y ago
    Absolutely! I feel like VR is still in its Napster phase.
JohnFen 3y ago
> Apple does UX well. I hear people say this often enough to question my own sanity, because I don't find Apple's UX to be very good at all. I find it confusing and it makes things difficult to figure out.
- soco 3y ago
  If you are using Apple products since decades of course you are used to it - except some complaints between major releases. If you just come from any other corner, oh well...
  - immanentize 3y ago
    I'm pretty sure they still force auto arrange of the icons on the home screen. It's probably invisible to most Apple users but it's a bit puzzling to anybody coming from anywhere else.
- ilinx 3y ago
  Could you provide an example of the sort of thing you’re talking about? Because I’m the type of person the other commenter was talking about (I’ve been in the Apple ecosystem for a very long time), and I feel I’m too close to it to have a reasonably objective viewpoint on it one way or the other.
  - claytongulick 3y ago
    Window management on OSX.
  - ffgjgf1 3y ago
    It’s getting harder and harder to see the good UX under a layer of bugs and minor issues Apple can’t be bothered to fix (mainly talking about macOS)
  - JohnFen 3y ago
    Sure. iPhones and the Apple desktop OS. In both of them, I am lost as to how to accomplish anything but the most common stuff. The design of the OSes is such that it's not obvious how to do anything, and they provide very little guidance. You have to already know how to do what it is you're trying to do. This is even worse on Apple smartphones, because a lot of stuff is done using mystery gestures that you have to already have memorized. Skeuomorphism used to provide a small amount of relief, but since that's gone out of fashion, it eliminated even those clues. In short, I find Apple's user interfaces to be very opaque. In fairness to Apple, this is also true of Android, Windows, and Gnome. But in the case of Android, it feels intuitive to me simply because I've internalized how to do the stuff that it gives no hint as to how to do.
soligern 3y ago
VR with extremely light eyewear coupled with extremely high resolution where real life is indistinguishable is essentially being able to pick your reality. I don’t think there’s any doubt that this wouldn’t be a niche thing.
- layer8 3y ago
  It’s not clear we will reach that before we will reach direct brain interfaces.

placatedmayhem 3y ago

> 2) Apple not being trapped in the “if we can’t sell a billion of them then why even bother?” mindset that so many other companies get trapped in, often because they’re not bursting at the seams with cash, talent, and runway. I feel like the iPhone mini being only two years long is a strong counterpoint to this. There's a small hope for an iPhone 15 mini, but with no 14 mini, it's a long shot. It accounted for 6% of all iPhone sales in it's first quarter, after a delayed and rocky launch.[1] There is a small but somewhat vocal minority that want smaller screens, which Linus Tech Tips' sub-channel Mac Address covered recently. [2] [1] https://www.tomsguide.com/news/iphone-12-mini-sales-a-disaster-heres-the-proof https://www.tomsguide.com/news/iphone-12-mini-sales-a-disast... [2] https://youtu.be/BjhiYa0KsSM https://youtu.be/BjhiYa0KsSM

Waterluvian 3y ago
A smaller iPhone isn’t exactly an exploratory venture into a new market. And loud minorities don’t make a market.
- nukeman 3y ago
  Loud minorities can form a market, if they are willing to put their money where their mouth is. But too often they don’t (cf. the “brown manual diesel wagon” from the car world. Enthusiasts say they want one, but when a manufacturer puts one out, they don’t buy enough of them).
  - scarface_74 3y ago
    “Revealed preference”
BuckRogers 3y ago
Maybe. But as we’ve seen (https://www.imore.com/iphone/lackluster-iphone-14-plus-sales-prove-the-iphone-mini-should-make-a-comeback https://www.imore.com/iphone/lackluster-iphone-14-plus-sales...), the Minis did outpace the non-Pro 14s. Obviously as the 14s sit on the market if they will outsell the minis. It’s just a matter of essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy of being available and the latest SKU. But the velocity was not there. So expect Apple to react accordingly. I’d like for them to settle on set sizes. Hands aren’t evolving every year, they need to stop screwing around. I use an iPhone 12 mini that I ordered on launch day and love it. Finally a worthy successor to the 5S/SE1.
scarface_74 3y ago
There was such a little difference between the 13 and 14 low end models, there was really no purpose for a “14 mini”. If you want a mini phone, you could buy the 13. Apple also doesn’t update the SE every year.
lotsofpulp 3y ago
Why can does apple need a new mini every year, or even every 2 years? The 13 mini bought today will probably still do everything that 90% of customers need it to do for another 5 years. Even the SE which is 3 years old now can probably do most things for another 5 years. Also, the 12 mini was released 6 months after the 2020 SE, and the 2020 SE was released ~4 years after the previous SE. it stands to reason that many people who wanted a smaller phone jumped on the 2020 SE, and then had no reason to buy a 12 mini. Also, the 12 mini battery life sucked. The 13 mini is perfectly usable though.

detourdog 3y ago

I agree. My guess is that they are at fork in production ramp. They need to choose between high production high risk or low production low risk. If they are 100% certain this is the final form factor they would take one path. If they think we need to get this out in the world and see how it is useful they would take the other.

cubefox 3y ago

> 2) Apple not being trapped in the “if we can’t sell a billion of them then why even bother?” mindset that so many other companies get trapped in It seems to be the opposite with folding phones. A lot of Android manufacturers releasing them, despite low sales numbers, while Apple apparently thinks: if we can’t sell a billion of them then why even bother?

PNewling 3y ago
This is a good counterpoint to what was posed above. That being said I feel like this is almost the obverse, they have a product that sells well so they don't need to follow each trend that comes out. So they can pick and choose which way they run with things.
thebruce87m 3y ago
Apple are at the “the technology isn’t quite there yet” phase. When they enter the market you’ll know you’ll probably get something semi reliable.
- rchaud 3y ago
  I'm typing this on a foldable phone right now, which is plenty reliable. One of the enduring myths about Apple's late entry into product sectors is the idea that they're waiting to "get it right". The first iPhone was a joke, it took them until the 3GS to get it right.
  - haswell 3y ago
    > One of the enduring myths about Apple's late entry into product sectors is the idea that they're waiting to "get it right". The first iPhone was a joke, it took them until the 3GS to get it right. I don't agree that this is a myth. If you look at the first generation iPhone in a vacuum, it was limited, perhaps (but I think there are plenty of arguments that the first gen iPhone was pushing envelopes - name one other phone that had a fully functioning web browser at the time, and pinch/zoom felt magical), but nitpicks about functionality aside, I don't think this framing makes sense for other reasons. A product line is not just its initial release. It is a process, an organizational discipline, a manufacturing and logistics pipeline, an ongoing upgrade cycle, an ongoing engagement with customers, an understanding of the market, etc. When the first generation phone was released, plans for the 3GS were already well under way. The 1st gen phone was a necessary step to get you that 3GS. When operating at Apple's scale, at least a decade of roadmap if not more was already planned in depth. The 3GS was not a reaction to the success of the 1, it is the real product Apple envisioned and planned to ship before we even knew the iPhone would exist. If the 3GS got it right, so did the gen 1, in a certain sense. And as an aside, I have to say I really liked my 1st gen iPhone compared to everything else I'd had up to that point, and I was a gadget junkie who had owned quite a few of the other "hot" phones at the time.

robbyking 3y ago

I agree about VR, but I'm really excited for advancements in AR! I'm a really avid mountain biker, road cyclist and snowboarder, and I'd love some basic telemetry displayed in the goggles or glasses I'm already wearing. Nothing kills a ride faster than having to stop to pull out your phone to see if you missed a turn or to figure out which unmarked trail you're supposed to take. (Not to mention all of the information we current have to look down at our cycling computers to see: HR, watts, cadence, etc.)

mcpackieh 3y ago
Seems like existing helmet HUD technology should be sufficient for some basic telemetry.
jmye 3y ago
As a trail runner, same - I really look forward to a future where decent glasses can show route details/programmable workout info/etc. and I can leave the watch at home. Less crap to carry + more info readily available would be awesome! I know that's not the problem Apple's solving here, but I'm hopeful that anything they can do to push AR will filter down quickly.
- robbyking 3y ago
  Absolutely! I feel like VR is still in its Napster phase.

JohnFen 3y ago

> Apple does UX well. I hear people say this often enough to question my own sanity, because I don't find Apple's UX to be very good at all. I find it confusing and it makes things difficult to figure out.

soco 3y ago
If you are using Apple products since decades of course you are used to it - except some complaints between major releases. If you just come from any other corner, oh well...
- immanentize 3y ago
  I'm pretty sure they still force auto arrange of the icons on the home screen. It's probably invisible to most Apple users but it's a bit puzzling to anybody coming from anywhere else.
ilinx 3y ago
Could you provide an example of the sort of thing you’re talking about? Because I’m the type of person the other commenter was talking about (I’ve been in the Apple ecosystem for a very long time), and I feel I’m too close to it to have a reasonably objective viewpoint on it one way or the other.
- claytongulick 3y ago
  Window management on OSX.
- ffgjgf1 3y ago
  It’s getting harder and harder to see the good UX under a layer of bugs and minor issues Apple can’t be bothered to fix (mainly talking about macOS)
- JohnFen 3y ago
  Sure. iPhones and the Apple desktop OS. In both of them, I am lost as to how to accomplish anything but the most common stuff. The design of the OSes is such that it's not obvious how to do anything, and they provide very little guidance. You have to already know how to do what it is you're trying to do. This is even worse on Apple smartphones, because a lot of stuff is done using mystery gestures that you have to already have memorized. Skeuomorphism used to provide a small amount of relief, but since that's gone out of fashion, it eliminated even those clues. In short, I find Apple's user interfaces to be very opaque. In fairness to Apple, this is also true of Android, Windows, and Gnome. But in the case of Android, it feels intuitive to me simply because I've internalized how to do the stuff that it gives no hint as to how to do.

soligern 3y ago

VR with extremely light eyewear coupled with extremely high resolution where real life is indistinguishable is essentially being able to pick your reality. I don’t think there’s any doubt that this wouldn’t be a niche thing.

layer8 3y ago
It’s not clear we will reach that before we will reach direct brain interfaces.