6 ms·

China to Restrict Exports of Metals Critical to Chip Production

36 points by moose_man 3y ago

borissk 3y ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxpKcbg30e4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxpKcbg30e4
hunglee2 3y ago
will this slow down the US innovation rate?
- adrian_b 3y ago
  It will not slow innovation directly, but it may have indirect effects. There are companies which develop leading edge products that depend on lasers, LEDs or gallium nitride power transistors. If China really cuts the exports of gallium and germanium, then such companies might have to reduce the volume of their production and to raise prices, which would lead to lower sales. Lower sales would cause lower profits, so maybe less money will be spent on research. Gallium and germanium are widespread, but their extraction processes are extremely expensive. A shortage would rise their prices, which would stimulate the creation of new mines and refining plants. However, that would require a few years. China has just been hit by a new wave of US sanctions that will make difficult for them to continue the production of some semiconductor devices, but they should also be able to become self sufficient in a few years.
  - imtringued 3y ago
    As far as we know these companies won't refuse to produce in China and hand over IP.
    - genmud 3y ago
      They will if the US threatens them with sanctions or requires export licenses and they see their value in the US market being greater than the CN market. ASML is a really good example.
    - DiogenesKynikos 3y ago
      That's not generally a requirement of operating in China. It's much more of a trope than actual reality. Many, many large foreign companies have operated in China for decades, without losing their IP.
- kylehotchkiss 3y ago
  I could see china restricting even more in the future which could cause some effects in chip prices which is when we’d start seeing price increases or availability issues. This Black Friday might be a good opportunity to upgrade any older tech around the house as the deals could be the best in a while/for a while with the drop off in shipping prices earlier this year and the financial issues some retailers have had. Who knows, next year we could see price bumps on a lot of tech because TSMC’s output has to reduce for whatever reason
kaycebasques 3y ago
> China is the world’s leading producer of gallium and germanium, which play a role in producing a number of types of compound semiconductors. Compound semiconductors combine multiple elements to improve transmission speed and efficiency. I have never heard of compound semiconductors before. This page [1] seems to have a decent summary: > Compound semiconductors are semiconductors that are made from two or more elements... Most compound semiconductors are from combinations of elements from GroupIII and GroupV of the Periodic Table of the Elements (GaAs, GaP, InP and others). Other compound semiconductors are made from Groups II and VI (CdTe, ZnSe and others). It is also possible to use different elements from within the same group (IV)... In the past, compound semiconductors were not used in the widespread commercial applications and high production volumes typical for silicon. These crystals are more difficult to grow than silicon. The number of defects in the crystal is higher, and the cost of making the crystal is higher. Compound semiconductors also tend to be more fragile... In recent years, however, the cost of manufacturing compound semiconductors has come down. It is still much higher than silicon, but at the same time, the special properties of these crystals have become more important for certain applications. Because of their fundamental material properties, compound semiconductors can do things that simply aren't possible with silicon. Exactly what kinds of applications can compound semis do that silicon semis cannot? [1] https://global-sei.com/sc/com_semi_e/ https://global-sei.com/sc/com_semi_e/
- gpapilion 3y ago
  GaAs is used in various diode production from what I recall.
- sidewndr46 3y ago
  high speed digital circuits rely on silicon for semiconductors. There are plenty of other semiconductors in use, just not for the same thing. Not even for digital circuits in many cases.
- dirtyid 3y ago
  Next gen AESA radars looking using GaN is probably one of the larger military applications.
- 3y ago
gpapilion 3y ago
https://archive.ph/O4hiM https://archive.ph/O4hiM
kylehotchkiss 3y ago
I had been worried about geopolitical issues impacting some form of chipmaking in the next several years and tried to upgrade all my gadgets to M2+ in the past year. Glad I completed the task! This might just be a few months of supply chain issues that could resonate for a while.
rasz 3y ago
Repeat of rare earth metals. The only reason we buy those from China is because its cheaper than running production in environmentally conscious countries.

36 points by moose_man 3y ago

borissk 3y ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxpKcbg30e4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxpKcbg30e4

hunglee2 3y ago

will this slow down the US innovation rate?

adrian_b 3y ago
It will not slow innovation directly, but it may have indirect effects. There are companies which develop leading edge products that depend on lasers, LEDs or gallium nitride power transistors. If China really cuts the exports of gallium and germanium, then such companies might have to reduce the volume of their production and to raise prices, which would lead to lower sales. Lower sales would cause lower profits, so maybe less money will be spent on research. Gallium and germanium are widespread, but their extraction processes are extremely expensive. A shortage would rise their prices, which would stimulate the creation of new mines and refining plants. However, that would require a few years. China has just been hit by a new wave of US sanctions that will make difficult for them to continue the production of some semiconductor devices, but they should also be able to become self sufficient in a few years.
- imtringued 3y ago
  As far as we know these companies won't refuse to produce in China and hand over IP.
  - genmud 3y ago
    They will if the US threatens them with sanctions or requires export licenses and they see their value in the US market being greater than the CN market. ASML is a really good example.
  - DiogenesKynikos 3y ago
    That's not generally a requirement of operating in China. It's much more of a trope than actual reality. Many, many large foreign companies have operated in China for decades, without losing their IP.
kylehotchkiss 3y ago
I could see china restricting even more in the future which could cause some effects in chip prices which is when we’d start seeing price increases or availability issues. This Black Friday might be a good opportunity to upgrade any older tech around the house as the deals could be the best in a while/for a while with the drop off in shipping prices earlier this year and the financial issues some retailers have had. Who knows, next year we could see price bumps on a lot of tech because TSMC’s output has to reduce for whatever reason

kaycebasques 3y ago

> China is the world’s leading producer of gallium and germanium, which play a role in producing a number of types of compound semiconductors. Compound semiconductors combine multiple elements to improve transmission speed and efficiency. I have never heard of compound semiconductors before. This page [1] seems to have a decent summary: > Compound semiconductors are semiconductors that are made from two or more elements... Most compound semiconductors are from combinations of elements from GroupIII and GroupV of the Periodic Table of the Elements (GaAs, GaP, InP and others). Other compound semiconductors are made from Groups II and VI (CdTe, ZnSe and others). It is also possible to use different elements from within the same group (IV)... In the past, compound semiconductors were not used in the widespread commercial applications and high production volumes typical for silicon. These crystals are more difficult to grow than silicon. The number of defects in the crystal is higher, and the cost of making the crystal is higher. Compound semiconductors also tend to be more fragile... In recent years, however, the cost of manufacturing compound semiconductors has come down. It is still much higher than silicon, but at the same time, the special properties of these crystals have become more important for certain applications. Because of their fundamental material properties, compound semiconductors can do things that simply aren't possible with silicon. Exactly what kinds of applications can compound semis do that silicon semis cannot? [1] https://global-sei.com/sc/com_semi_e/ https://global-sei.com/sc/com_semi_e/

gpapilion 3y ago
GaAs is used in various diode production from what I recall.
sidewndr46 3y ago
high speed digital circuits rely on silicon for semiconductors. There are plenty of other semiconductors in use, just not for the same thing. Not even for digital circuits in many cases.
dirtyid 3y ago
Next gen AESA radars looking using GaN is probably one of the larger military applications.
3y ago

gpapilion 3y ago

https://archive.ph/O4hiM https://archive.ph/O4hiM

kylehotchkiss 3y ago

I had been worried about geopolitical issues impacting some form of chipmaking in the next several years and tried to upgrade all my gadgets to M2+ in the past year. Glad I completed the task! This might just be a few months of supply chain issues that could resonate for a while.

rasz 3y ago

Repeat of rare earth metals. The only reason we buy those from China is because its cheaper than running production in environmentally conscious countries.