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So next up: will they be able to reach profitability servicing SF and Phoenix. So far, highly small scale subsidized pilot projects. The hardware is more expen

So next up: will they be able to reach profitability servicing SF and Phoenix. So far, highly small scale subsidized pilot projects. The hardware is more expensive than regular cabs. The software has cost billions, an may cost billions more. Operationally, energy use should be marginally higher. Hourly cab-driver wages: gone. Insurance and write off — we'll see, but if the software is any good this should be considerably lower. I guess it comes down to the big unknown: will it work at scale. Can we find enough cities with great weather, where enough people will use it? What will happen when the price goes up? What is a fair, sustainable price? Will that be higher than human-driven car?

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
Then ice thing about software is that you can copy it at least, even if it’s expensive. LIDAR prices are coming down at a steady rate, although Tesla is still trying to go the vision only route. > I guess it comes down to the big unknown: will it work at scale. Can we find enough cities with great weather, where enough people will use it? What will happen when the price goes up? What is a fair, sustainable price? Will that be higher than human-driven car? If we assume the technology won’t improve any longer, this is true. But I don’t think that is a very safe assumption. Everything seems to point to the question being when rather than if.
- pipo234 3y ago
  Another five years away it is, then ;-)
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    There will be progress in 5 years, will it be enough? Who knows, it’s something to play the stock market with if you are into that.
TulliusCicero 3y ago
Who says they need great weather? People said the same shit about Phoenix: "ohhhhhh, but what about the cities that don't have extremely wide streets and almost no pedestrians???" Now that they're in SF, the goalposts immediately move. Weather will be gradually solved, just like other technical aspects.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago

Then ice thing about software is that you can copy it at least, even if it’s expensive. LIDAR prices are coming down at a steady rate, although Tesla is still trying to go the vision only route. > I guess it comes down to the big unknown: will it work at scale. Can we find enough cities with great weather, where enough people will use it? What will happen when the price goes up? What is a fair, sustainable price? Will that be higher than human-driven car? If we assume the technology won’t improve any longer, this is true. But I don’t think that is a very safe assumption. Everything seems to point to the question being when rather than if.

pipo234 3y ago
Another five years away it is, then ;-)
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  There will be progress in 5 years, will it be enough? Who knows, it’s something to play the stock market with if you are into that.

TulliusCicero 3y ago

Who says they need great weather? People said the same shit about Phoenix: "ohhhhhh, but what about the cities that don't have extremely wide streets and almost no pedestrians???" Now that they're in SF, the goalposts immediately move. Weather will be gradually solved, just like other technical aspects.