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Self driving cars have been only a few years out for how long now? So much money has been dumped into them and it’s not unreasonable to imagine that they may ne

by ThrowAway1922A 3y ago

Self driving cars have been only a few years out for how long now? So much money has been dumped into them and it’s not unreasonable to imagine that they may never be “good enough”. Frankly with higher interest rates and reduced investment, it’s easier to imagine research being scaled back than true self driving cars becoming generally available.

AlotOfReading 3y ago
You can hail a ride in a self-driving vehicle in multiple cities, with any of several companies. Yeah, there's more refinement necessary, but autonomous vehicles are a long way from "perpetually 5 years away" syndrome.
- pipo234 3y ago
  Multiple promising experiments show that it's technically possible. That's an important step, but still mostly shows this is theoretically working until you can show me a profitable company that replaced human drivers without huge VC subsidies.
  - AlotOfReading 3y ago
    I feel like the term "self driving car" is solely about the technical performance. The financials of whether they make sense as commercial vehicles or if the companies running them are profitable are entirely separate matters. To put it another way, a computer that only the 5 richest kings in Europe can afford is still a computer.
    - pipo234 3y ago
      Okay, that makes sense. Men on moon was 5 years away in 1964. I might argue that today men on the moon are over 50 years away, in the sense that currently there's no-one there. Guess it's a half-full / half-empty, discussion. Technically, humans can walk the moon, but moon walking isn't actually a thing. With self-driving cars, I'd argue mixed bag. Yes, it's already possible (with caveats), but "no" it's also at least five years away. When can I have it? When would it make sense for an existing cab company to jump ship? I mean, fire the drivers and replace old fleet with commodity self driving cars. Personally I'm not so interested in what kings, millionaires, governments can achieve unless it's either a stunning scientific achievement or somehow relevant improvement to society.
pipo234 3y ago
Maybe we should have tried self driving trains first?
- kjkjadksj 3y ago
  Already exists
  - pipo234 3y ago
    Existence is an important first step. I'd argue it's still at least five years away from replacing my daily commute, though. So, were the train experiments successful? If so, what is stopping it from replacing regular trains? From a distance, trains should be simpler: it's just a horizontal elevator. So why are there still mostly regular trains? I think answering that will likely help explain why self-driving cars won't be a thing in at least another 10-20 years.
- tonymillion 3y ago
  There's a lot of driverless train systems in the world, from "automatic driving with an operator on board" (Londons DLR system for example) to fully automatic "driver/operator-less system" (i.e. very probably every time you've taken a sky tram at an airport) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_driver-less_train_systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_driver-less_train_syst...
  - pipo234 3y ago
    Yes, we've seen that it can be done. Technically. But by and far the majority of trains are still human operated. Even though the traffic rules are very straight forward ("get out of my way, or...") and the guidance systems, robotics, CC surveillance, scheduling and logistics are 99% there in (for example) major parts of continental Europe. So why are train services in Germany, Netherlands, France frequently canceled for lack of train drivers? I honoustly don't know the answer but I wager that return on investment plays a significant role. And I think the self-driving car rationale isn't all that different, except for the easy venture billions of the last decade(s).

AlotOfReading 3y ago

You can hail a ride in a self-driving vehicle in multiple cities, with any of several companies. Yeah, there's more refinement necessary, but autonomous vehicles are a long way from "perpetually 5 years away" syndrome.

pipo234 3y ago
Multiple promising experiments show that it's technically possible. That's an important step, but still mostly shows this is theoretically working until you can show me a profitable company that replaced human drivers without huge VC subsidies.
- AlotOfReading 3y ago
  I feel like the term "self driving car" is solely about the technical performance. The financials of whether they make sense as commercial vehicles or if the companies running them are profitable are entirely separate matters. To put it another way, a computer that only the 5 richest kings in Europe can afford is still a computer.
  - pipo234 3y ago
    Okay, that makes sense. Men on moon was 5 years away in 1964. I might argue that today men on the moon are over 50 years away, in the sense that currently there's no-one there. Guess it's a half-full / half-empty, discussion. Technically, humans can walk the moon, but moon walking isn't actually a thing. With self-driving cars, I'd argue mixed bag. Yes, it's already possible (with caveats), but "no" it's also at least five years away. When can I have it? When would it make sense for an existing cab company to jump ship? I mean, fire the drivers and replace old fleet with commodity self driving cars. Personally I'm not so interested in what kings, millionaires, governments can achieve unless it's either a stunning scientific achievement or somehow relevant improvement to society.

pipo234 3y ago

Maybe we should have tried self driving trains first?

kjkjadksj 3y ago
Already exists
- pipo234 3y ago
  Existence is an important first step. I'd argue it's still at least five years away from replacing my daily commute, though. So, were the train experiments successful? If so, what is stopping it from replacing regular trains? From a distance, trains should be simpler: it's just a horizontal elevator. So why are there still mostly regular trains? I think answering that will likely help explain why self-driving cars won't be a thing in at least another 10-20 years.
tonymillion 3y ago
There's a lot of driverless train systems in the world, from "automatic driving with an operator on board" (Londons DLR system for example) to fully automatic "driver/operator-less system" (i.e. very probably every time you've taken a sky tram at an airport) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_driver-less_train_systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_driver-less_train_syst...
- pipo234 3y ago
  Yes, we've seen that it can be done. Technically. But by and far the majority of trains are still human operated. Even though the traffic rules are very straight forward ("get out of my way, or...") and the guidance systems, robotics, CC surveillance, scheduling and logistics are 99% there in (for example) major parts of continental Europe. So why are train services in Germany, Netherlands, France frequently canceled for lack of train drivers? I honoustly don't know the answer but I wager that return on investment plays a significant role. And I think the self-driving car rationale isn't all that different, except for the easy venture billions of the last decade(s).