4 ms·

I spoke to my 70-year-old step-aunt about this yesterday for exactly this reason. She's a self-employed piano teacher with zero technical interest or knowledge,

by weevil 3y ago

I spoke to my 70-year-old step-aunt about this yesterday for exactly this reason. She's a self-employed piano teacher with zero technical interest or knowledge, but a generally astute and clued-up kind of person. She said she's heard a lot about it, but it all sounds like marketing hype, tabloid sensationalism, or open alarmism from people who don't seem to know what they're talking about. She said some of her students had used ChatGPT for creating revision materials for their exams, and that they'd found it useful for that, but she found the assertion that mass unemployment is 6-12 months away 'pure speculation'.

laichzeit0 3y ago
> but she found the assertion that mass unemployment is 6-12 months away 'pure speculation' Who in their right mind has been asserting that?
- weevil 3y ago
  No idea. I've seen some mouths-for-hire on LinkedIn make these sorts of claims, but not seen any in reputable print.
LUmBULtERA 3y ago
I've never met a single person claiming it will cause mass unemployment in 6-12 months. But the impact of ~ChatGPT 10.0 in 5 or 10 years from now? It's a lot more believable given its current state. My anecdote is that everyone is concerned about what it will do in the future gives its current proof of concept.
- weevil 3y ago
  I've heard people make claims about it being 'not far off', but in my experience, these people tend to be making a living from speaking on AI (or previously Blockchain) and don't have any actual technical credentials. I personally think there's a number of reasons why we may be coming up on an AI plateau that we may not get out of for a long time, but that's a different matter.
thaw13579 3y ago
What’s innovative about the LLM chat interface is that it requires no technical expertise to use. Aside from logging in, it’s not much different than sending a text message or email, so most people could experiment with it if they were at all inclined. So when I hear people hold opinions about LLMs who haven’t even tried them out, I assume they are not curious or informed.
swalsh 3y ago
> but she found the assertion that mass unemployment is 6-12 months away 'pure speculation' I've found numerous places to use generative AI in my business. None of the use cases involve laying people off. A large amount of the use cases are adding something new to the business to help us acheive something that wouldn't have been practical if we had to pay a person to do it. The next batch of it, is preloading a humans plate so they can do a quick verification, some small edits, and then off to the customer, allowing the subject matter experts to handle a higher volumes which directly relates to revenue. The 3rd set of use cases involve helping creative employees be more creative. Not a single use case i've evaluated (and there's a bunch) will put anyone out of work. Might give us more room to hire more people frankly. At least in my business, and I supect my business i not unusual. It's like the paperless office. Sure eventually AI might get good enough to replace people, but we'll probably just end up hiring more people in the middle since a person with AI can do so much more revenue generating work.

by weevil 3y ago

laichzeit0 3y ago

> but she found the assertion that mass unemployment is 6-12 months away 'pure speculation' Who in their right mind has been asserting that?

weevil 3y ago
No idea. I've seen some mouths-for-hire on LinkedIn make these sorts of claims, but not seen any in reputable print.

LUmBULtERA 3y ago

I've never met a single person claiming it will cause mass unemployment in 6-12 months. But the impact of ~ChatGPT 10.0 in 5 or 10 years from now? It's a lot more believable given its current state. My anecdote is that everyone is concerned about what it will do in the future gives its current proof of concept.

weevil 3y ago
I've heard people make claims about it being 'not far off', but in my experience, these people tend to be making a living from speaking on AI (or previously Blockchain) and don't have any actual technical credentials. I personally think there's a number of reasons why we may be coming up on an AI plateau that we may not get out of for a long time, but that's a different matter.

thaw13579 3y ago

What’s innovative about the LLM chat interface is that it requires no technical expertise to use. Aside from logging in, it’s not much different than sending a text message or email, so most people could experiment with it if they were at all inclined. So when I hear people hold opinions about LLMs who haven’t even tried them out, I assume they are not curious or informed.

swalsh 3y ago

> but she found the assertion that mass unemployment is 6-12 months away 'pure speculation' I've found numerous places to use generative AI in my business. None of the use cases involve laying people off. A large amount of the use cases are adding something new to the business to help us acheive something that wouldn't have been practical if we had to pay a person to do it. The next batch of it, is preloading a humans plate so they can do a quick verification, some small edits, and then off to the customer, allowing the subject matter experts to handle a higher volumes which directly relates to revenue. The 3rd set of use cases involve helping creative employees be more creative. Not a single use case i've evaluated (and there's a bunch) will put anyone out of work. Might give us more room to hire more people frankly. At least in my business, and I supect my business i not unusual. It's like the paperless office. Sure eventually AI might get good enough to replace people, but we'll probably just end up hiring more people in the middle since a person with AI can do so much more revenue generating work.