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The market cap tells you what you need to know. Is there a way in which Tesla can grow the total vehicle market, expand alone into adjacent protected, high valu

by svnt 3y ago

The market cap tells you what you need to know. Is there a way in which Tesla can grow the total vehicle market, expand alone into adjacent protected, high value markets, or reasonably exceed Toyota’s market share? If not, they’re over valued. They are still valued on $300k per car future numbers from when they were supposed to be renting cars with AI drivers in 2020, and the exuberance and “playing with house money” crowd has just kept the music going.

yazaddaruvala 3y ago
If Tesla were a car company. However, Tesla is also a fuel-station company. You could just as easily value it against BP or Shell to get better market cap representation.
- tw04 3y ago
  Not unless they start building power plants. Right now they’re just a gas station owner selling someone else’s oil. I’m aware of the solar roof thing and it’s more of a press release than a product.
  - svnt 3y ago
    It’s the attempt to fulfill the story they’ve been selling since the beginning, which is exactly the EV-company-but-with-sticky-SaaS-revenue you’d expect from SV. A problem when you try to span those markets is you lose access to support from other major companies because you open up too many competitive fronts. A further problem is when you try to reproduce a model (oil companies) that is dependent on finding and securing resources when almost everyone has a sufficient and unending oil-well-equivalent permanently incident on their roof.
  - yazaddaruvala 3y ago
    Power plant: https://electrek.co/2022/08/18/teslas-virtual-power-plant-first-event-helping-grid-future/ https://electrek.co/2022/08/18/teslas-virtual-power-plant-fi... Here is a grid storage project: https://electrek.co/2022/03/22/tesla-megapack-selected-big-new-300-mwh-energy-storage-project-renewable-energy-australia/ https://electrek.co/2022/03/22/tesla-megapack-selected-big-n...
    - tw04 3y ago
      >Power plant: https://electrek.co/2022/08/18/teslas-virtual-power-plant-fi https://electrek.co/2022/08/18/teslas-virtual-power-plant-fi... That's not a power plant... they are producing 0 electricity. They are allowing powerwall OWNERS to act as a grid-scale BATTERY. A battery != a power plant and produces nothing even remotely resembling a real power plant in recurring revenue. >Here is a grid storage project: https://electrek.co/2022/03/22/tesla-megapack-selected-big-n https://electrek.co/2022/03/22/tesla-megapack-selected-big-n... Again, they are producing 0 electricity, they are selling a battery to someone else to use. Let me know when Tesla starts building their own solar farms or nuclear power plants and using it to power their supercharger network. That will be the only way it's at all comparable to Shell.
      - yazaddaruvala 3y ago
        If you don’t consider power price arbitration a “power plant” when even the US Department of Energy does, then I’m not sure how to bridge our gap. Meanwhile, here is a Tesla subsidiary project https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-08/tesla-is-plugging-a-secret-mega-battery-into-the-texas-grid https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-08/tesla-is-... Tesla is also constantly vertically integrating. The writing is on the wall. If you’d rather not see it, then ok, that is your prerogative.
        tw04 3y ago
        >If you don’t consider power price arbitration a “power plant” when even the US Department of Energy does, then I’m not sure how to bridge our gap. Except they don't, they specifically call it out as a "virtual power plant" because it doesn't produce power, and isn't regulated by the rules of a power plant that actually generates power. >Meanwhile, here is a Tesla subsidiary project https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-08/tesla-is- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-08/tesla-is-... So again, a battery, not a power plant, not actually producing any power. And at a cost that will be dramatically undercut by the wave of cheap LifePo4 batteries that make significantly more sense for grid storage and are slowly trickling into the US now that patents have expired. >Tesla is also constantly vertically integrating. The writing is on the wall. If you’d rather not see it, then ok, that is your prerogative. The "constant vertical integration" the Tesla fanboys constantly screech about is just a lot of marketing around doing exactly what every other auto company has done in the past. The fact they're finding secondary uses for their battery tech is great. But across the board, outside of EV's, they produce a vastly inferior product. The powerwall is an inferior product to countless existing home battery solutions. Their "solar roof" was literally a bailout of his cousin and is vastly inferior to existing solar panel options, and grossly overpriced. What's their total install base? 1,000 houses? Have they even hit that with the "solar shingles", not the bait and switch overpriced solar panel options? I can't even tie a Tesla charger into my utility provider's night and weekend plan, I have to use a chargepoint or enel charger. So tell me all about this massive lead they've got.
voisin 3y ago
> The market cap tells you what you need to know. At the very least, compare enterprise value (market cap + debt - cash & equivalents), so that you are comparing leverage agnostic values.
- svnt 3y ago
  It is a more complete number to use. Unfortunately, debt (and equivalents, and even cash depending on its location) aren’t always or even often a simple addition or subtraction.
DoesntMatter22 3y ago
What sort of a mega pack business does Toyota have? What are the long term prospects for their Robot? What tech is Toyota going to sell to other car companies to make money? Why is Toyota investing in hydrogen when it makes no sense? What is Toyota going to do about it's massive debt. These are some of the reasons Tesla is valued at what it is and Toyota is what IT is. Toyota has nothing exciting on the horizon that is going to dramatically change things for them. Not to mention they make a pittance per car compared to Tesla.
- _hypx 3y ago
  Hydrogen is a fundamental superior technology compared to batteries. If anything, Toyota is decades ahead of Tesla. Everything Tesla is aiming to do is just a pale imitation of what Toyota is already achieving.
  - kelnos 3y ago
    And yet I've seen at most a handful of hydrogen-powered cars since they've been available commercially, and I've only once seen a refueling station for them. Superior technology -- assuming it is; I have no idea -- often doesn't win.
    - _hypx 3y ago
      The problem with that thinking is that BEVs are guaranteed to be more expensive in the long run. A hydrogen car is basically an EV minus the most expensive part. That is going to be a decisive advantage.
  - mensetmanusman 3y ago
    It's not fundamentally superior due to the challenge of storing hydrogen at high densities. It's superior in some cases where you have an existing pipeline network.
    - _hypx 3y ago
      Hydrogen storage has a higher density than li-ion batteries.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
FireBeyond 3y ago
> or reasonably exceed Toyota’s market share Hah, if only Toyota... At one point, Tesla was worth more than: Toyota, Volkwagen Group, Hyundai/Kia, General Motors, Ford, Nissan, Honda, Fiat Chrysler, Renault, Suzuki, Daimler, BMW, Mazda and Mitsubishi combined. (Plus several Chinese manufacturers: SAID, Geely, Changan, Dongfeng).

by svnt 3y ago

yazaddaruvala 3y ago

If Tesla were a car company. However, Tesla is also a fuel-station company. You could just as easily value it against BP or Shell to get better market cap representation.

tw04 3y ago
Not unless they start building power plants. Right now they’re just a gas station owner selling someone else’s oil. I’m aware of the solar roof thing and it’s more of a press release than a product.
- svnt 3y ago
  It’s the attempt to fulfill the story they’ve been selling since the beginning, which is exactly the EV-company-but-with-sticky-SaaS-revenue you’d expect from SV. A problem when you try to span those markets is you lose access to support from other major companies because you open up too many competitive fronts. A further problem is when you try to reproduce a model (oil companies) that is dependent on finding and securing resources when almost everyone has a sufficient and unending oil-well-equivalent permanently incident on their roof.
- yazaddaruvala 3y ago
  Power plant: https://electrek.co/2022/08/18/teslas-virtual-power-plant-first-event-helping-grid-future/ https://electrek.co/2022/08/18/teslas-virtual-power-plant-fi... Here is a grid storage project: https://electrek.co/2022/03/22/tesla-megapack-selected-big-new-300-mwh-energy-storage-project-renewable-energy-australia/ https://electrek.co/2022/03/22/tesla-megapack-selected-big-n...
  - tw04 3y ago
    >Power plant: https://electrek.co/2022/08/18/teslas-virtual-power-plant-fi https://electrek.co/2022/08/18/teslas-virtual-power-plant-fi... That's not a power plant... they are producing 0 electricity. They are allowing powerwall OWNERS to act as a grid-scale BATTERY. A battery != a power plant and produces nothing even remotely resembling a real power plant in recurring revenue. >Here is a grid storage project: https://electrek.co/2022/03/22/tesla-megapack-selected-big-n https://electrek.co/2022/03/22/tesla-megapack-selected-big-n... Again, they are producing 0 electricity, they are selling a battery to someone else to use. Let me know when Tesla starts building their own solar farms or nuclear power plants and using it to power their supercharger network. That will be the only way it's at all comparable to Shell.
    - yazaddaruvala 3y ago
      If you don’t consider power price arbitration a “power plant” when even the US Department of Energy does, then I’m not sure how to bridge our gap. Meanwhile, here is a Tesla subsidiary project https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-08/tesla-is-plugging-a-secret-mega-battery-into-the-texas-grid https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-08/tesla-is-... Tesla is also constantly vertically integrating. The writing is on the wall. If you’d rather not see it, then ok, that is your prerogative.
      - tw04 3y ago
        >If you don’t consider power price arbitration a “power plant” when even the US Department of Energy does, then I’m not sure how to bridge our gap. Except they don't, they specifically call it out as a "virtual power plant" because it doesn't produce power, and isn't regulated by the rules of a power plant that actually generates power. >Meanwhile, here is a Tesla subsidiary project https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-08/tesla-is- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-03-08/tesla-is-... So again, a battery, not a power plant, not actually producing any power. And at a cost that will be dramatically undercut by the wave of cheap LifePo4 batteries that make significantly more sense for grid storage and are slowly trickling into the US now that patents have expired. >Tesla is also constantly vertically integrating. The writing is on the wall. If you’d rather not see it, then ok, that is your prerogative. The "constant vertical integration" the Tesla fanboys constantly screech about is just a lot of marketing around doing exactly what every other auto company has done in the past. The fact they're finding secondary uses for their battery tech is great. But across the board, outside of EV's, they produce a vastly inferior product. The powerwall is an inferior product to countless existing home battery solutions. Their "solar roof" was literally a bailout of his cousin and is vastly inferior to existing solar panel options, and grossly overpriced. What's their total install base? 1,000 houses? Have they even hit that with the "solar shingles", not the bait and switch overpriced solar panel options? I can't even tie a Tesla charger into my utility provider's night and weekend plan, I have to use a chargepoint or enel charger. So tell me all about this massive lead they've got.

voisin 3y ago

> The market cap tells you what you need to know. At the very least, compare enterprise value (market cap + debt - cash & equivalents), so that you are comparing leverage agnostic values.

svnt 3y ago
It is a more complete number to use. Unfortunately, debt (and equivalents, and even cash depending on its location) aren’t always or even often a simple addition or subtraction.

DoesntMatter22 3y ago

What sort of a mega pack business does Toyota have? What are the long term prospects for their Robot? What tech is Toyota going to sell to other car companies to make money? Why is Toyota investing in hydrogen when it makes no sense? What is Toyota going to do about it's massive debt. These are some of the reasons Tesla is valued at what it is and Toyota is what IT is. Toyota has nothing exciting on the horizon that is going to dramatically change things for them. Not to mention they make a pittance per car compared to Tesla.

_hypx 3y ago
Hydrogen is a fundamental superior technology compared to batteries. If anything, Toyota is decades ahead of Tesla. Everything Tesla is aiming to do is just a pale imitation of what Toyota is already achieving.
- kelnos 3y ago
  And yet I've seen at most a handful of hydrogen-powered cars since they've been available commercially, and I've only once seen a refueling station for them. Superior technology -- assuming it is; I have no idea -- often doesn't win.
  - _hypx 3y ago
    The problem with that thinking is that BEVs are guaranteed to be more expensive in the long run. A hydrogen car is basically an EV minus the most expensive part. That is going to be a decisive advantage.
- mensetmanusman 3y ago
  It's not fundamentally superior due to the challenge of storing hydrogen at high densities. It's superior in some cases where you have an existing pipeline network.
  - _hypx 3y ago
    Hydrogen storage has a higher density than li-ion batteries.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

FireBeyond 3y ago

> or reasonably exceed Toyota’s market share Hah, if only Toyota... At one point, Tesla was worth more than: Toyota, Volkwagen Group, Hyundai/Kia, General Motors, Ford, Nissan, Honda, Fiat Chrysler, Renault, Suzuki, Daimler, BMW, Mazda and Mitsubishi combined. (Plus several Chinese manufacturers: SAID, Geely, Changan, Dongfeng).