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You conviniently left out all the good parts of the economy: unemployment is at all-time lows, inflation is down (but still not at 2%), consumer spending is at

You conviniently left out all the good parts of the economy: unemployment is at all-time lows, inflation is down (but still not at 2%), consumer spending is at an all-time high. We obviously could still have a recession in the future but (a) we're not in one right now and (b) the economy has done much, much better than people were expecting this time last year.

TeeMassive 3y ago
Employment numbers are skewed because of people who wouldn't normally work working more to make ends meet and debt keeping on rising and inflation slowing but still unsustainable. Under the hood these numbers are not good.
- douglasisshiny 3y ago
  Can you elaborate, maybe point to a data source on this? I'm not exactly sure what you're trying to say. The prime age labor participation rate isn't out of line with historical trends: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 Edit: Also wanted to throw this in: Average weekly hours of all employees https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP
- shagymoe 3y ago
  And probably also low because every unemployed person drops off the list after 6 months AFAIK.
  - 111111IIIIIII 3y ago
    Yes, but you aren't supposed to know that.
    - lotsofpulp 3y ago
      Oh shit, someone should tell the government to take these webpages down then. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/u6rate https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/u6rate https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab...
      - douglasisshiny 3y ago
        Don't forget about prime age labor participation rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060.
        111111IIIIIII 3y ago
        Definition?
        douglasisshiny 3y ago
        It's the percentage of people aged 25-54 (prime age) who are either employed or unemployed and looking for work. It's considered a good indicator of the health of the labor market.
      - 111111IIIIIII 3y ago
        How insufferable and/or out of touch and/or smartass does one have to be to pretend this qualifies as popularly accessible information? I cannot even imagine...
  - gruez 3y ago
    >And probably also low because every unemployed person drops off the list after 6 months AFAIK. Source? The BLS definition for U3 (ie. the figure that's referenced when people talk about "unemployment") doesn't say anything about 6 months.
    - shagymoe 3y ago
      Here's some lazy ChatGPT info: However, there are certain factors that can lead to individuals falling out of the official unemployment statistic: Discouraged Workers: If individuals become discouraged and stop actively seeking employment, they may no longer be counted as part of the labor force or in the unemployment rate calculation. Underemployed Workers: The unemployment rate may not fully capture those who are working part-time but would prefer full-time employment. These individuals are considered part of the employed category, even if their work hours are insufficient. Marginally Attached and Particular Job Seekers: Some individuals may have searched for employment in the past but have not actively sought employment in the four weeks preceding the survey. They are classified as marginally attached to the labor force and are not considered part of the unemployed category. Involuntary Part-Time Workers: People who are working part-time due to economic reasons, such as inability to find full-time work, are included in the employed category but may not be fully reflected in the unemployment rate.
      - gruez 3y ago
        Right, but none of them mentions 6 months. If you're going to use chatgpt at least give a cursory glance to see whether the response is applicable to the topic at hand. I already know that U3 excludes some jobless people, but I'm asking specifically about the 6 months part.
- SoftTalker 3y ago
  When have people not worked to "make ends meet" unless you are independently wealthy this is just normal life. I don't know where we forgot that.
  - rat9988 3y ago
    While for most people ends won't meet without working, making the ends meet in this context has a bit more specific meaning you glossed over. The difference is subtle but makes the whole difference.
    - temende 3y ago
      Can you please explain the subtle difference in more detail? Do you mean something like people having to work multiple jobs to make ends meet?
      - douglasisshiny 3y ago
        I honestly cannot tell what the person to whom you're responding is saying. But if they suggesting people are working multiple jobs at a higher rate than the historical average, they would, in fact, be incorrect according to fed data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620
scottLobster 3y ago
Unemployment is a lagging indicator for a recession, and credit card debt is also at an all time high. Sure things could stay positive for a while longer, but there's a lot of headwinds on the horizon, more than I've seen in a while, and these headwinds are tangible, concrete, structural things we can put some numbers to, not just vague philosophical notions of "it can't go up forever" and "everything's overvalued". How big an impact it all makes and on what timescale we'll have to just wait and see, but I'm not leveraging up in this environment.
- temende 3y ago
  Yup I agree, there's always the possibility of things turning south. I guess I just have more subjective confidence in the American economy than it sounds like you do.
  - lr4444lr 3y ago
    America is usually the healthiest patient in the hospice, economically speaking.
- gonzaloalvarez 3y ago
  If you say ‘recession’ enough times, you’ll be right at some point. Experts have predicted 22 out of the last 10 recessions…
  - scottLobster 3y ago
    I'm no expert, nor am I a permabear. I could be wrong, but for me it's the difference between "water's warmer than usual, high probability of severe hurricane" a few years ago and "there's a category 4 a few dozen miles off the coast, we're hoping it doesn't directly hit a major population center" today. It's possible the thing turns away completely and heads out to sea, but I wouldn't bet on it
  - throw0101a 3y ago
    > Experts have predicted 22 out of the last 10 recessions… The actual saying was a knock against stock traders: > To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties.[20] * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson#Aphorisms_and_quotations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson#Aphorisms_and_q...
vizzah 3y ago
Europe: Germany - is already in the recession, but DAX is climbing on par with SP500 (or anything what climbs). Obviously, not a good indicator of a rationality in the market, esp. when greed indicators are at the top. Even Lagarde warned about swift market corrections, but market participants apparently think it all is a bluffing =)
- ChuckNorris89 3y ago
  Yeah, Europe is not as economically strong as the US. We still have sky high prices, stagnating wages, and a war on our doorstep. I read a lot of news of economic slowdown in German exports due to several factors. Anecdotally, got laid off in early spring, still trying to land a decent job, but despite the so called labor shortage all I get is shit offers for 2018 money. While I'm sure this benefits some, the fact that the stock market is now up, is little comfort to me.
- temende 3y ago
  The original post was about the US stock market, but I guess should have still clarified that I was talking about a US recession. I don't follow the Europe economy as closely
- nly 3y ago
  The stock market is forward looking and bottoms before the wider economy
WarOnPrivacy 3y ago
> You conviniently left out all the good parts of the economy: unemployment is at all-time lows, inflation is down (but still not at 2%), consumer spending is at an all-time high. On the ground here we were at 3 typical incomes to make basic bills in Jan 2022. As of this month we're solidly at 4 incomes to meet those same bills. Most of that jump occurred this year.
- temende 3y ago
  Do you mind clarifying - do you mean 4 incomes for the same number of people? i.e. are you or people you know taking multiple jobs, is that what "4 incomes" means?
  - WarOnPrivacy 3y ago
    > do you mean 4 incomes for the same number of people? Yes. > are you or people you know taking multiple jobs That would work too, providing there enough hours in the week to work 4 full time jobs. One person earning 4x a typical income would also be able support themselves.
- PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
  In this context, "typical" would normally mean something very close to "median", US household median income is about $71k/year. You're saying you need $280k to meet basic bills? Perhaps by "typical" you meant something closer to "near minimum" ?
  - WarOnPrivacy 3y ago
    I mean typical as in a rate of pay that would be available to the most possible people.
    - PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
      That's a very unusual metric to use for this purpose. Essentially the "mode" of the income distribution. I'm not saying you're wrong to use it, it's just a little strange. The mode of most distributions doesn't tell you much about the distribution as a whole, which might be just fine in this case. OTOH, the median is the number for which half the households in the country earn more and half earn less, and whatever the merits of the mode might be, I still think that's a fairly significant value too.
detourdog 3y ago
higher interest rates are preferable to uncertainty. Higher interest rates can be planned for already has a location in the tax code. I’m staring to see that the recent recovery funding was a cash infusion to mask the rate increase from the 2008 recovery. It is a great opportunity to reset expectations.
111111IIIIIII 3y ago
Additionally, you can say what you want about chattel slavery but it rendered a very strong employment rate.
- Loughla 3y ago
  You're being a bit extreme, but I would like to hear the argument of why unemployment being low is automatically a positive. I think it's more nuanced in the types of employment and pay. But I'm also sure I don't even know where to go to get that data.
  - 111111IIIIIII 3y ago
    That is the point. Having a job does not mean making a living or having any dignity.
  - marcosdumay 3y ago
    Well, people are in a much better negotiation position when their next option is some minimum wage undesirable work, instead of no work at all and being unable to survive.
  - jdminhbg 3y ago
    “Unemployment” is people who are trying to find work divided by themselves + people working. If everyone is living a life of leisure, it will still be low.
    - temende 3y ago
      > If everyone is living a life of leisure Isn't that the sign of a good economy then?
      - jdminhbg 3y ago
        Yes, unemployment is a good statistic in that case because it only measures those who are trying and failing to find a job, not those who don’t want or need one.
option 3y ago
is consumer spending at all-time high adjusted for inflation?
m0llusk 3y ago
atmosphere and oceans pretty much shot to shit, we are so doomed
- cvhashim04 3y ago
  - Doomer
  - m0llusk 3y ago
    Not at all. Recessions are corrections. The overall effect is beneficial. They cannot be avoided, only delayed. Environmental issues often drive recessions which at some level is what we are seeing now. Dealing with recessions and environmental issues should lead to improved circumstances.
tenpies 3y ago
> You conviniently left out all the good parts of the economy: unemployment is at all-time lows, inflation is down (but still not at 2%), consumer spending is at an all-time high. Ah yes, the fruits of Bidenomics! Real wages are stagnant so everyone has to pick up additional work to deal with inflation. In a backdrop of inflation, these are essentialy a drop in wages: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf Inflation is down: sure, from a face-ripping to a merely painful number. More importantly, it took several revisions to the CPI calculation and the lowest SPR levels in decades to make it happen. Also conveniently ignored, food CPI is still at a crushing 6.7% annual rate. If you remove food and energy, CPI inflation is at 5.3%. See: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ Consumer spending is all-time high: indeed. Sky-high! It becomes quite nefarious when you think about the above: inflation of very important things is still high, but wages are not keeping up. How is the American consumer trying to stay afloat? Household debt. That is credit cards and other forms of personal debt has hit an all time high: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc I understand that Biden is trying to paint this as a success, but it's just cherry-picking statistics that hide the disaster the Democrats have created. It's like the Weimar Republic celebrating that the stock market is at all time high and unemployment is 0%.

TeeMassive 3y ago

Employment numbers are skewed because of people who wouldn't normally work working more to make ends meet and debt keeping on rising and inflation slowing but still unsustainable. Under the hood these numbers are not good.

douglasisshiny 3y ago
Can you elaborate, maybe point to a data source on this? I'm not exactly sure what you're trying to say. The prime age labor participation rate isn't out of line with historical trends: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 Edit: Also wanted to throw this in: Average weekly hours of all employees https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP
shagymoe 3y ago
And probably also low because every unemployed person drops off the list after 6 months AFAIK.
- 111111IIIIIII 3y ago
  Yes, but you aren't supposed to know that.
  - lotsofpulp 3y ago
    Oh shit, someone should tell the government to take these webpages down then. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/u6rate https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/u6rate https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-lab...
    - douglasisshiny 3y ago
      Don't forget about prime age labor participation rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060.
      - 111111IIIIIII 3y ago
        Definition?
        douglasisshiny 3y ago
        It's the percentage of people aged 25-54 (prime age) who are either employed or unemployed and looking for work. It's considered a good indicator of the health of the labor market.
    - 111111IIIIIII 3y ago
      How insufferable and/or out of touch and/or smartass does one have to be to pretend this qualifies as popularly accessible information? I cannot even imagine...
- gruez 3y ago
  >And probably also low because every unemployed person drops off the list after 6 months AFAIK. Source? The BLS definition for U3 (ie. the figure that's referenced when people talk about "unemployment") doesn't say anything about 6 months.
  - shagymoe 3y ago
    Here's some lazy ChatGPT info: However, there are certain factors that can lead to individuals falling out of the official unemployment statistic: Discouraged Workers: If individuals become discouraged and stop actively seeking employment, they may no longer be counted as part of the labor force or in the unemployment rate calculation. Underemployed Workers: The unemployment rate may not fully capture those who are working part-time but would prefer full-time employment. These individuals are considered part of the employed category, even if their work hours are insufficient. Marginally Attached and Particular Job Seekers: Some individuals may have searched for employment in the past but have not actively sought employment in the four weeks preceding the survey. They are classified as marginally attached to the labor force and are not considered part of the unemployed category. Involuntary Part-Time Workers: People who are working part-time due to economic reasons, such as inability to find full-time work, are included in the employed category but may not be fully reflected in the unemployment rate.
    - gruez 3y ago
      Right, but none of them mentions 6 months. If you're going to use chatgpt at least give a cursory glance to see whether the response is applicable to the topic at hand. I already know that U3 excludes some jobless people, but I'm asking specifically about the 6 months part.
SoftTalker 3y ago
When have people not worked to "make ends meet" unless you are independently wealthy this is just normal life. I don't know where we forgot that.
- rat9988 3y ago
  While for most people ends won't meet without working, making the ends meet in this context has a bit more specific meaning you glossed over. The difference is subtle but makes the whole difference.
  - temende 3y ago
    Can you please explain the subtle difference in more detail? Do you mean something like people having to work multiple jobs to make ends meet?
    - douglasisshiny 3y ago
      I honestly cannot tell what the person to whom you're responding is saying. But if they suggesting people are working multiple jobs at a higher rate than the historical average, they would, in fact, be incorrect according to fed data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620

scottLobster 3y ago

Unemployment is a lagging indicator for a recession, and credit card debt is also at an all time high. Sure things could stay positive for a while longer, but there's a lot of headwinds on the horizon, more than I've seen in a while, and these headwinds are tangible, concrete, structural things we can put some numbers to, not just vague philosophical notions of "it can't go up forever" and "everything's overvalued". How big an impact it all makes and on what timescale we'll have to just wait and see, but I'm not leveraging up in this environment.

temende 3y ago
Yup I agree, there's always the possibility of things turning south. I guess I just have more subjective confidence in the American economy than it sounds like you do.
- lr4444lr 3y ago
  America is usually the healthiest patient in the hospice, economically speaking.
gonzaloalvarez 3y ago
If you say ‘recession’ enough times, you’ll be right at some point. Experts have predicted 22 out of the last 10 recessions…
- scottLobster 3y ago
  I'm no expert, nor am I a permabear. I could be wrong, but for me it's the difference between "water's warmer than usual, high probability of severe hurricane" a few years ago and "there's a category 4 a few dozen miles off the coast, we're hoping it doesn't directly hit a major population center" today. It's possible the thing turns away completely and heads out to sea, but I wouldn't bet on it
- throw0101a 3y ago
  > Experts have predicted 22 out of the last 10 recessions… The actual saying was a knock against stock traders: > To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties.[20] * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson#Aphorisms_and_quotations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson#Aphorisms_and_q...

vizzah 3y ago

Europe: Germany - is already in the recession, but DAX is climbing on par with SP500 (or anything what climbs). Obviously, not a good indicator of a rationality in the market, esp. when greed indicators are at the top. Even Lagarde warned about swift market corrections, but market participants apparently think it all is a bluffing =)

ChuckNorris89 3y ago
Yeah, Europe is not as economically strong as the US. We still have sky high prices, stagnating wages, and a war on our doorstep. I read a lot of news of economic slowdown in German exports due to several factors. Anecdotally, got laid off in early spring, still trying to land a decent job, but despite the so called labor shortage all I get is shit offers for 2018 money. While I'm sure this benefits some, the fact that the stock market is now up, is little comfort to me.
temende 3y ago
The original post was about the US stock market, but I guess should have still clarified that I was talking about a US recession. I don't follow the Europe economy as closely
nly 3y ago
The stock market is forward looking and bottoms before the wider economy

WarOnPrivacy 3y ago

> You conviniently left out all the good parts of the economy: unemployment is at all-time lows, inflation is down (but still not at 2%), consumer spending is at an all-time high. On the ground here we were at 3 typical incomes to make basic bills in Jan 2022. As of this month we're solidly at 4 incomes to meet those same bills. Most of that jump occurred this year.

temende 3y ago
Do you mind clarifying - do you mean 4 incomes for the same number of people? i.e. are you or people you know taking multiple jobs, is that what "4 incomes" means?
- WarOnPrivacy 3y ago
  > do you mean 4 incomes for the same number of people? Yes. > are you or people you know taking multiple jobs That would work too, providing there enough hours in the week to work 4 full time jobs. One person earning 4x a typical income would also be able support themselves.
PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
In this context, "typical" would normally mean something very close to "median", US household median income is about $71k/year. You're saying you need $280k to meet basic bills? Perhaps by "typical" you meant something closer to "near minimum" ?
- WarOnPrivacy 3y ago
  I mean typical as in a rate of pay that would be available to the most possible people.
  - PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
    That's a very unusual metric to use for this purpose. Essentially the "mode" of the income distribution. I'm not saying you're wrong to use it, it's just a little strange. The mode of most distributions doesn't tell you much about the distribution as a whole, which might be just fine in this case. OTOH, the median is the number for which half the households in the country earn more and half earn less, and whatever the merits of the mode might be, I still think that's a fairly significant value too.

detourdog 3y ago

higher interest rates are preferable to uncertainty. Higher interest rates can be planned for already has a location in the tax code. I’m staring to see that the recent recovery funding was a cash infusion to mask the rate increase from the 2008 recovery. It is a great opportunity to reset expectations.

111111IIIIIII 3y ago

Additionally, you can say what you want about chattel slavery but it rendered a very strong employment rate.

Loughla 3y ago
You're being a bit extreme, but I would like to hear the argument of why unemployment being low is automatically a positive. I think it's more nuanced in the types of employment and pay. But I'm also sure I don't even know where to go to get that data.
- 111111IIIIIII 3y ago
  That is the point. Having a job does not mean making a living or having any dignity.
- marcosdumay 3y ago
  Well, people are in a much better negotiation position when their next option is some minimum wage undesirable work, instead of no work at all and being unable to survive.
- jdminhbg 3y ago
  “Unemployment” is people who are trying to find work divided by themselves + people working. If everyone is living a life of leisure, it will still be low.
  - temende 3y ago
    > If everyone is living a life of leisure Isn't that the sign of a good economy then?
    - jdminhbg 3y ago
      Yes, unemployment is a good statistic in that case because it only measures those who are trying and failing to find a job, not those who don’t want or need one.

option 3y ago

is consumer spending at all-time high adjusted for inflation?

m0llusk 3y ago

atmosphere and oceans pretty much shot to shit, we are so doomed

cvhashim04 3y ago
- Doomer
- m0llusk 3y ago
  Not at all. Recessions are corrections. The overall effect is beneficial. They cannot be avoided, only delayed. Environmental issues often drive recessions which at some level is what we are seeing now. Dealing with recessions and environmental issues should lead to improved circumstances.

tenpies 3y ago

> You conviniently left out all the good parts of the economy: unemployment is at all-time lows, inflation is down (but still not at 2%), consumer spending is at an all-time high. Ah yes, the fruits of Bidenomics! Real wages are stagnant so everyone has to pick up additional work to deal with inflation. In a backdrop of inflation, these are essentialy a drop in wages: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf Inflation is down: sure, from a face-ripping to a merely painful number. More importantly, it took several revisions to the CPI calculation and the lowest SPR levels in decades to make it happen. Also conveniently ignored, food CPI is still at a crushing 6.7% annual rate. If you remove food and energy, CPI inflation is at 5.3%. See: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ Consumer spending is all-time high: indeed. Sky-high! It becomes quite nefarious when you think about the above: inflation of very important things is still high, but wages are not keeping up. How is the American consumer trying to stay afloat? Household debt. That is credit cards and other forms of personal debt has hit an all time high: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc I understand that Biden is trying to paint this as a success, but it's just cherry-picking statistics that hide the disaster the Democrats have created. It's like the Weimar Republic celebrating that the stock market is at all time high and unemployment is 0%.