4 ms·

You seriously think the US can't get a few mercenaries inside Russia if they wanted to? Especially in this case... I am reasonably sure more or less neutral for

by chx 3y ago

You seriously think the US can't get a few mercenaries inside Russia if they wanted to? Especially in this case... I am reasonably sure more or less neutral forces like the Middle East states or India would rather frown at disrupting TSMC and wouldn't be against a little underhanded action to take a few civilians out. It's not like you are doing a coup or such, you just need to accident a few civilians.

sampa 3y ago
you confuse Russia with some middle-east/asia countries those hollywood stories about mercs acting as in cia/jason-bourne movie in reality won't fly in Russia
- all2 3y ago
  You're describing a standard CIA black op. And if they aren't going after a Russian government asset, I'd wager there would be less likelihood of catching heat, especially if the one's doing the work are native Russians looking to make a quick buck.
  - Melting_Harps 3y ago
    > You're describing a standard CIA black op. And if they aren't going after a Russian government asset, I'd wager there would be less likelihood of catching heat, especially if the one's doing the work are native Russians looking to make a quick buck. Black OPs are not necessary, and would likely be too messy, what is more effective is flooding weapons into a border nation (like Ukraine) currently at conflict with Russia and then tapping into the local dissenting populace (aptly justified) and allowing them to infiltrate a porous border. While I'm not stupid enough to think that the CIA aren't above such things, the truth is just like with Cuba/Castro they cannot resort to such tactics anymore: land invasions end up like Afghanistan and Iraq, Stuxnet leads to further instability for almost no gain (blame Israel/Mossad) and this seems more like what they did in the Iran-contra situation mixed in with operation fast and furious. This allows for nearly absolute plausible deniability, while also letting Russia know it's not beyond the West's touch. The Pentagon/DoD supplying the weapons is just the right amount of overt message that gets the pint across. Geopolitics and War are absolutely disgusting, but at least their is a logic behind it instead of Red scare BS they were once so headlong to follow; what I ultimately fear is the path these psychopaths are likely to lead us as a Species down if this doesn't end soon.
    - MichaelZuo 3y ago
      Just by typing this out it reveals ignorance regarding this topic. The people who actually know how it's settled in Moscow and D.C. don't write replies on HN.
- Melting_Harps 3y ago
  > those hollywood stories about mercs acting as in cia/jason-bourne movie in reality won't fly in Russia Hollywood fantasies not withstanding, partisans have been operational in Russia and Belarus since at least the war began. In fact the counter offensive heavily relies on the use of Partisan [0] for sabotage, intel, and counter intelligence and likely will remain until the War ends, and possibly longer. I think this will end in the end o the greater Russian Federation, last weekend it got close to showing what it will take: there too many warring factions with oligarchs, personal interest and access to private paramilitaries/mercenaries (Wagner being the most obvious) will not allow their standing as the effective ruling class be let go because they no longer support Putin and will back anyone who keeps them in their lofty positions--the collapse of the Soviet Union proved that many times over. In short, a corrupt Mafia petrol-state has many enemies in and out of it's borders; to think their aren't people ready and willing to kill for vengeance is the real sense of fiction here. Hell, throughout the war their have been many examples of these 'Bourne' types, before the rounding up of fighting age men during the mobilization last year that led to millions of men fleeing Russia, recruitment centers were set ablaze in defiance to the war. What gets me is if everyone knows this is the inevitable outcome, wouldn't the most logical thing to do is to back Nadya from Pussy riot or Alexi's forced escape and subsequent political aspirations or campaign. (I don't personally care who governs what will likely be a smaller Russia so long as they're contained, and their nuclear weapons are static). 0: https://archive.is/YfOfQ https://archive.is/YfOfQ
  - sampa 3y ago
    let me just tell you that you're in way over your head ps no offence and I don't expect you to change your opinion or how you view the world
    - Melting_Harps 3y ago
      > let me just tell you that you're in way over your head >> Just by typing this out it reveals ignorance regarding this topic. The people who actually know how it's settled in Moscow and D.C. don't write replies on HN. Funny, I was is in Ukraine in the Fall of '21 and I felt and knew Russia was going to invade by November, which was when Belarus and Poland were in a proxy war and I had to return into the EU during that debacle and saw how Hungary was locking it's borders. By contrast no one was mentioning the possibility of Russia invading at that time, despite having put 75k troops in the Spring on the Ukrainian border in Belarus being a major contributor, with any real seriousness. I'm well aware of what I don't know on these matters, but unlike most of you I have been involved in this matter since the Maidan Revolution. The creation of Uniterd24 was the manifestation of the technology WE in the Bitcoin community built, while you FAANG lackeys patted yourself on the back in creating a digital panopticon. Let me remind you: we are not the same thing, so I'm not offended. I'm just aghast of how little you people grasp of the World and what is possible with allocating human capital to more noble causes. But since it isn't lucrative or even looked down as it is here (see my post history for examples of this laughable arrogance), if this weren't the case then maybe your opinion would have some value to me. Just to be clear: I'm not a shot-caller, nor do I consider myself one as I'm an anarchist for a reason and detest the nature of politics/geopolitics to my very core; however, it's clear that COVID and this war has shown the horrendous nature of sleeping with despots these last 3 decades has and is mired with long term consequences for short term (but lucrative gains) for corporations and politicians. Until you know what it feels like to see Fukushima and then seeing these moronic mobiks digging up trenches in Chernobyl and living in dread as they start shelling Zaporizhzhia while living on mainland Europe I will just never see any value in your opinions either.
baybal2 3y ago
[dead]
sapiogram 3y ago
> You seriously think the US can't get a few mercenaries inside Russia if they wanted to? This would be unbelievably risky... The mercenary might get caught afterwards, before, or just be a Russian double agent from the start. And if any of that happens, you'd give Putin a massive refueling on his bonfire of anti-western propaganda.
- marcosdumay 3y ago
  That never stopped any of those shady foreign-power agencies... but anyway, why do you think Putin needs actual facts to refuel his bonfire?
- pessimizer 3y ago
  > The mercenary might get caught afterwards, before, or just be a Russian double agent from the start. If you're going to make things up, it might be an entirely successful poisoning done by the girlfriend of the head of the gang, days after her mom's bills for cancer treatment were entirely paid off. Then, a rumor goes around that she killed him to get to a secret account, and the evidence is that her mom's bills were paid off mysteriously. Days later, she's found dead in an alley; people assume that she was a victim of another member of the gang - even the other members of the gang assume it, although no one is talking. Meanwhile, it was an agent that had been placed as a clerk at a local tax office, on his lunch break. If we're making things up.
- LawTalkingGuy 3y ago
  You wouldn't hire some ex US special forces person hiding in Russia in deep cover, like a movie. You'd hire local thugs who works as enforcers for a gang to simply grab these guys and shove them in a van and deliver them to a warehouse. These are cash-motivated criminals not ideological or patriotic fanatics. I imagine the interrogation would be like "You know why we captured you, right? Yes. Login and disable your entire network and live or we brutalize you until you do and then kill you. Ok." Especially if this was at a government level (ie, not private "loss prevention") you'd be able to tap the intel network for local criminals and things to hold over their heads to motivate them.
  - 3y ago

by chx 3y ago

sampa 3y ago

you confuse Russia with some middle-east/asia countries those hollywood stories about mercs acting as in cia/jason-bourne movie in reality won't fly in Russia

all2 3y ago
You're describing a standard CIA black op. And if they aren't going after a Russian government asset, I'd wager there would be less likelihood of catching heat, especially if the one's doing the work are native Russians looking to make a quick buck.
- Melting_Harps 3y ago
  > You're describing a standard CIA black op. And if they aren't going after a Russian government asset, I'd wager there would be less likelihood of catching heat, especially if the one's doing the work are native Russians looking to make a quick buck. Black OPs are not necessary, and would likely be too messy, what is more effective is flooding weapons into a border nation (like Ukraine) currently at conflict with Russia and then tapping into the local dissenting populace (aptly justified) and allowing them to infiltrate a porous border. While I'm not stupid enough to think that the CIA aren't above such things, the truth is just like with Cuba/Castro they cannot resort to such tactics anymore: land invasions end up like Afghanistan and Iraq, Stuxnet leads to further instability for almost no gain (blame Israel/Mossad) and this seems more like what they did in the Iran-contra situation mixed in with operation fast and furious. This allows for nearly absolute plausible deniability, while also letting Russia know it's not beyond the West's touch. The Pentagon/DoD supplying the weapons is just the right amount of overt message that gets the pint across. Geopolitics and War are absolutely disgusting, but at least their is a logic behind it instead of Red scare BS they were once so headlong to follow; what I ultimately fear is the path these psychopaths are likely to lead us as a Species down if this doesn't end soon.
  - MichaelZuo 3y ago
    Just by typing this out it reveals ignorance regarding this topic. The people who actually know how it's settled in Moscow and D.C. don't write replies on HN.
Melting_Harps 3y ago
> those hollywood stories about mercs acting as in cia/jason-bourne movie in reality won't fly in Russia Hollywood fantasies not withstanding, partisans have been operational in Russia and Belarus since at least the war began. In fact the counter offensive heavily relies on the use of Partisan [0] for sabotage, intel, and counter intelligence and likely will remain until the War ends, and possibly longer. I think this will end in the end o the greater Russian Federation, last weekend it got close to showing what it will take: there too many warring factions with oligarchs, personal interest and access to private paramilitaries/mercenaries (Wagner being the most obvious) will not allow their standing as the effective ruling class be let go because they no longer support Putin and will back anyone who keeps them in their lofty positions--the collapse of the Soviet Union proved that many times over. In short, a corrupt Mafia petrol-state has many enemies in and out of it's borders; to think their aren't people ready and willing to kill for vengeance is the real sense of fiction here. Hell, throughout the war their have been many examples of these 'Bourne' types, before the rounding up of fighting age men during the mobilization last year that led to millions of men fleeing Russia, recruitment centers were set ablaze in defiance to the war. What gets me is if everyone knows this is the inevitable outcome, wouldn't the most logical thing to do is to back Nadya from Pussy riot or Alexi's forced escape and subsequent political aspirations or campaign. (I don't personally care who governs what will likely be a smaller Russia so long as they're contained, and their nuclear weapons are static). 0: https://archive.is/YfOfQ https://archive.is/YfOfQ
- sampa 3y ago
  let me just tell you that you're in way over your head ps no offence and I don't expect you to change your opinion or how you view the world
  - Melting_Harps 3y ago
    > let me just tell you that you're in way over your head >> Just by typing this out it reveals ignorance regarding this topic. The people who actually know how it's settled in Moscow and D.C. don't write replies on HN. Funny, I was is in Ukraine in the Fall of '21 and I felt and knew Russia was going to invade by November, which was when Belarus and Poland were in a proxy war and I had to return into the EU during that debacle and saw how Hungary was locking it's borders. By contrast no one was mentioning the possibility of Russia invading at that time, despite having put 75k troops in the Spring on the Ukrainian border in Belarus being a major contributor, with any real seriousness. I'm well aware of what I don't know on these matters, but unlike most of you I have been involved in this matter since the Maidan Revolution. The creation of Uniterd24 was the manifestation of the technology WE in the Bitcoin community built, while you FAANG lackeys patted yourself on the back in creating a digital panopticon. Let me remind you: we are not the same thing, so I'm not offended. I'm just aghast of how little you people grasp of the World and what is possible with allocating human capital to more noble causes. But since it isn't lucrative or even looked down as it is here (see my post history for examples of this laughable arrogance), if this weren't the case then maybe your opinion would have some value to me. Just to be clear: I'm not a shot-caller, nor do I consider myself one as I'm an anarchist for a reason and detest the nature of politics/geopolitics to my very core; however, it's clear that COVID and this war has shown the horrendous nature of sleeping with despots these last 3 decades has and is mired with long term consequences for short term (but lucrative gains) for corporations and politicians. Until you know what it feels like to see Fukushima and then seeing these moronic mobiks digging up trenches in Chernobyl and living in dread as they start shelling Zaporizhzhia while living on mainland Europe I will just never see any value in your opinions either.

baybal2 3y ago

[dead]

sapiogram 3y ago

> You seriously think the US can't get a few mercenaries inside Russia if they wanted to? This would be unbelievably risky... The mercenary might get caught afterwards, before, or just be a Russian double agent from the start. And if any of that happens, you'd give Putin a massive refueling on his bonfire of anti-western propaganda.

marcosdumay 3y ago
That never stopped any of those shady foreign-power agencies... but anyway, why do you think Putin needs actual facts to refuel his bonfire?
pessimizer 3y ago
> The mercenary might get caught afterwards, before, or just be a Russian double agent from the start. If you're going to make things up, it might be an entirely successful poisoning done by the girlfriend of the head of the gang, days after her mom's bills for cancer treatment were entirely paid off. Then, a rumor goes around that she killed him to get to a secret account, and the evidence is that her mom's bills were paid off mysteriously. Days later, she's found dead in an alley; people assume that she was a victim of another member of the gang - even the other members of the gang assume it, although no one is talking. Meanwhile, it was an agent that had been placed as a clerk at a local tax office, on his lunch break. If we're making things up.
LawTalkingGuy 3y ago
You wouldn't hire some ex US special forces person hiding in Russia in deep cover, like a movie. You'd hire local thugs who works as enforcers for a gang to simply grab these guys and shove them in a van and deliver them to a warehouse. These are cash-motivated criminals not ideological or patriotic fanatics. I imagine the interrogation would be like "You know why we captured you, right? Yes. Login and disable your entire network and live or we brutalize you until you do and then kill you. Ok." Especially if this was at a government level (ie, not private "loss prevention") you'd be able to tap the intel network for local criminals and things to hold over their heads to motivate them.
- 3y ago