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There's a lot of anticipation of huge economic gains to come, from 2024. I wouldn't be surprised if banks are being pitched to people of certain circles as the

There's a lot of anticipation of huge economic gains to come, from 2024. I wouldn't be surprised if banks are being pitched to people of certain circles as the new business real estate... If they design their program right, there's likely very little downside risk and huge risk of missing out on all that capital inflow. Plus I guess, read the fine print...

IAmGraydon 3y ago
They know there has been an inflection point and rates will be in the double digits in a decade. They get your cash at only 4.75% and will be able to make a massive low risk return by investing in treasuries or lending the money.
- zie 3y ago
  How do they and you know this, when even the Federal Reserve doesn't have a clue? Also, 100 yrs and a decade are ridiculously different time frames. So even if they and you know this, it hardly matters. Duration risk is real though.
  - IAmGraydon 3y ago
    > How do they and you know this, when even the Federal Reserve doesn't have a clue? I think the Fed does know this. I’m not going to go into the nuts and bolts of my hypothesis, but the basis is that continually dropping rates for 40 years has been equivalent to putting the economy on stimulants and it started causing things to break starting in 2000 and continuing to today. It has forced an inflection point in the Fed’s policy, and rates will likely trend upward for at least the next few decades to stabilize things. If they decide to drop back to zero, expect even more fundamental breakage including further spiraling inflation as well as social unrest due to a larger wealth gap and further political polarization. At the moment, Jerome Powell is truly the most powerful man in the world.
    - zie 3y ago
      The fed has always had this power, it's why there are a group of people involved and not just Jerome Powell. I agree the Fed tries to know this, but I disagree that the Fed actually knows this, because they don't. If they did, they could have fixed our inflation mess earlier, but they didn't.
  - AdamN 3y ago
    If they're unsuccessful they can declare bankruptcy and let the FDIC fund cover the gap. If they're successful they get big $$$!

IAmGraydon 3y ago

They know there has been an inflection point and rates will be in the double digits in a decade. They get your cash at only 4.75% and will be able to make a massive low risk return by investing in treasuries or lending the money.

zie 3y ago
How do they and you know this, when even the Federal Reserve doesn't have a clue? Also, 100 yrs and a decade are ridiculously different time frames. So even if they and you know this, it hardly matters. Duration risk is real though.
- IAmGraydon 3y ago
  > How do they and you know this, when even the Federal Reserve doesn't have a clue? I think the Fed does know this. I’m not going to go into the nuts and bolts of my hypothesis, but the basis is that continually dropping rates for 40 years has been equivalent to putting the economy on stimulants and it started causing things to break starting in 2000 and continuing to today. It has forced an inflection point in the Fed’s policy, and rates will likely trend upward for at least the next few decades to stabilize things. If they decide to drop back to zero, expect even more fundamental breakage including further spiraling inflation as well as social unrest due to a larger wealth gap and further political polarization. At the moment, Jerome Powell is truly the most powerful man in the world.
  - zie 3y ago
    The fed has always had this power, it's why there are a group of people involved and not just Jerome Powell. I agree the Fed tries to know this, but I disagree that the Fed actually knows this, because they don't. If they did, they could have fixed our inflation mess earlier, but they didn't.
- AdamN 3y ago
  If they're unsuccessful they can declare bankruptcy and let the FDIC fund cover the gap. If they're successful they get big $$$!