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You could say the same about Elon Musk or Nokola Tesla or many others. Just sounds like pure survivorship bias to me. "This crazy innovator died so clearly futu

You could say the same about Elon Musk or Nokola Tesla or many others. Just sounds like pure survivorship bias to me. "This crazy innovator died so clearly future innovators should listen to the experts!".

retrac 3y ago
Well, Musk is an interesting example. I don't see him strapping himself to one of his rockets until he is darn sure it's not going to blow up.
- mikece 3y ago
  He did send one of his cars into space, but that was an unmanned attempt...
  - areoform 3y ago
    That was a simulated payload for a test flight. SpaceX actually has an extensive testing, certification, and quality assurance process. A lot of it is driven by NASA and a lot of it may seem like "regulations," but NASA created those regulations because of the number of people who have died along the way.
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      If anything was proven by SpaceX in that context then it is that there are still many lessons to be learned. https://www.compositesworld.com/articles/spacex-announces-copvs-role-in-sept-rocket-explosion https://www.compositesworld.com/articles/spacex-announces-co...
  - wkat4242 3y ago
    He was never going to see that car again anyway, successful or not :)
rootusrootus 3y ago
That's a good point, an analogy with Elon and FSD sort of works.
mgarfias 3y ago
Nah, Nikola tesla was working with something unknown and strange at the time. There wasn’t a hundred years worth of engineering work behind the field. SpaceX’s “new thing” was recovering the first stage, which made subsequent launches cheaper. We have a LOT of engineering experience behind carbon fiber structures. Sometimes, you listen.
- sitkack 3y ago
  Musk wasn't the one to propose VTVL for SpaceX, he originally wanted parachutes.
Goronmon 3y ago
Just sounds like pure survivorship bias to me. I think you are using it in the exactly opposite way. "Crazy innovator succeeds and makes it rich! Future innovators don't need to listen to experts!" is the "survivor" in this situation. The number of "innovators" to failed/died/etc will be much higher than the ones who are successful.
Chris2048 3y ago
AFAIK Musk hasn't stepped inside one of his own test rockets?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
kllrnohj 3y ago
> You could say the same about Elon Musk Elon Musk's successful companies were all him just taking credit for what the experts he bought produced. How is that in any way related to what OceanGate did? People doubted that Elon's companies could deliver on their goals, but they didn't really doubt the fundamental safety or engineering practices behind them. It's not like for the Model 3 Tesla just decided that suddenly cardboard was a great way to contain a battery pack. And SpaceX has absolutely been doing test flights "by the book" like the generations of rockets before them?
- smileysteve 3y ago
  > like the generations of rockets before them? But still risky; as clear from the recent rocket explosion; stage landing mishaps, space shuttles before them (the reason why SpaceX has a client in the US is because shuttles weren't reliable enough to continue) Hopefully SpaceX is listening to pressure hull tests and Nasa now pays attention to ambient temperatures and orings.
dehrmann 3y ago
Hasn't Musk's Autopilot killed more people than this sub?
mempko 3y ago
Musk is not an inventor. It's more apt to compare Musk to Edison instead of Tesla. Of someone who paid others to invent. Though not a fair comparison to Edison since even Edison invented things on his own. Remember, Musk has an education in economics.

retrac 3y ago

Well, Musk is an interesting example. I don't see him strapping himself to one of his rockets until he is darn sure it's not going to blow up.

mikece 3y ago
He did send one of his cars into space, but that was an unmanned attempt...
- areoform 3y ago
  That was a simulated payload for a test flight. SpaceX actually has an extensive testing, certification, and quality assurance process. A lot of it is driven by NASA and a lot of it may seem like "regulations," but NASA created those regulations because of the number of people who have died along the way.
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    If anything was proven by SpaceX in that context then it is that there are still many lessons to be learned. https://www.compositesworld.com/articles/spacex-announces-copvs-role-in-sept-rocket-explosion https://www.compositesworld.com/articles/spacex-announces-co...
- wkat4242 3y ago
  He was never going to see that car again anyway, successful or not :)

rootusrootus 3y ago

That's a good point, an analogy with Elon and FSD sort of works.

mgarfias 3y ago

Nah, Nikola tesla was working with something unknown and strange at the time. There wasn’t a hundred years worth of engineering work behind the field. SpaceX’s “new thing” was recovering the first stage, which made subsequent launches cheaper. We have a LOT of engineering experience behind carbon fiber structures. Sometimes, you listen.

sitkack 3y ago
Musk wasn't the one to propose VTVL for SpaceX, he originally wanted parachutes.

Goronmon 3y ago

Just sounds like pure survivorship bias to me. I think you are using it in the exactly opposite way. "Crazy innovator succeeds and makes it rich! Future innovators don't need to listen to experts!" is the "survivor" in this situation. The number of "innovators" to failed/died/etc will be much higher than the ones who are successful.

Chris2048 3y ago

AFAIK Musk hasn't stepped inside one of his own test rockets?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

kllrnohj 3y ago

> You could say the same about Elon Musk Elon Musk's successful companies were all him just taking credit for what the experts he bought produced. How is that in any way related to what OceanGate did? People doubted that Elon's companies could deliver on their goals, but they didn't really doubt the fundamental safety or engineering practices behind them. It's not like for the Model 3 Tesla just decided that suddenly cardboard was a great way to contain a battery pack. And SpaceX has absolutely been doing test flights "by the book" like the generations of rockets before them?

smileysteve 3y ago
> like the generations of rockets before them? But still risky; as clear from the recent rocket explosion; stage landing mishaps, space shuttles before them (the reason why SpaceX has a client in the US is because shuttles weren't reliable enough to continue) Hopefully SpaceX is listening to pressure hull tests and Nasa now pays attention to ambient temperatures and orings.

dehrmann 3y ago

Hasn't Musk's Autopilot killed more people than this sub?

mempko 3y ago

Musk is not an inventor. It's more apt to compare Musk to Edison instead of Tesla. Of someone who paid others to invent. Though not a fair comparison to Edison since even Edison invented things on his own. Remember, Musk has an education in economics.