5 ms·

Or put another way -- power utilities and grid failing to keep up with consumer demand.

ceejayoz 3y ago
Not necessarily for lack of trying. > The power grid is also grappling with supply chain and worker shortage problems that have cause some power facilities to delay or cancel maintenance aimed at getting the system primed for summer. Specifically, NERC warned that low inventories of replacement transformers could derail efforts to restart power facilities following hurricanes and severe storms.
- maerF0x0 3y ago
  > “The intermittent nature of wind power (wind turbines only generate electricity if the wind is blowing, and how much electricity they generate depends on how windy it is) present operational challenges for grid operators,” analysts from the US Energy Information Administration wrote in a report on Monday. “Low wind and high demand periods could result in energy emergencies.” > Wind plays a central role in meeting demand in Texas as well as the two power grid regions that cover most of the central part of the United States. Drought conditions and low levels of major reservoirs could also hurt hydro power generation. > NERC also flagged concerns about new environmental rules that restrict power plant emissions, warning these regulations will limit the operation of coal-fired generators in 23 states, including Nevada, Utah and states along the Gulf Coast, mid-Atlantic and Midwest. This is the first summer since the implementation of the EPA’s Good Neighbor Plan, which aims to reduce cross-state smog from power plants and other industrial sites. This is pretty clearly regulation/environmentalist caused. Not that we shouldn't pursue a climate friendly grid, but we're not there yet and forcing the timeline is causing creaks and issues.
  - lovich 3y ago
    Would we ever move if we weren’t forced or would we just get to a different emergency after putting off necessary changes? My point being is that the other option wasn’t to do a gradual, planned rollout, given the political realities
    - ajsnigrutin 3y ago
      We could still go nuclear, which gives power 24/7 no matter if it's windy, sunny, cloudy or raining. But nope...
      - bryanlarsen 3y ago
        Nuclear is great for steady state power demand, but isn't a good match for peaky power demands, like air conditioning demand during heat waves.
        ajsnigrutin 3y ago
        You can use the excess power (during low loads at night) to generate hydrogen fuel, pump water uphill to use hydro during the day, etc.
        bryanlarsen 3y ago
        If you've got a way of storing power, why would you use expensive nuclear power rather than cheap renewable power?
        deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - lovich 3y ago
        Again, political realities don’t allow for nuclear in the US. The best that could get accomplished is that we start regulating how much pollution you spit out like in the above referenced “Good Neighbor” plan because all but the craziest libertarian types at least begrudgingly acknowledge that you shouldn’t be able to throw trash on someone else’s lawn
        ajsnigrutin 3y ago
        I mean.... daily blackouts vs nuclear... which kind of a politician would you want to be? Yes, some people are stupid, a lot of "the greens" included here, but choosing unreliable and unstable power sources while demanding more power use (ban on ICE cars, ban on burning stuff for heat and cooking, etc.), is well.. stupid too.
  - NathanKP 3y ago
    Saying that this is regulation / environmentalist caused is only looking at half of the picture. You could just as easily say that this is caused by greed and the desire for more profits. Wind power is extremely cheap (almost half the cost per megawatt hour compared to fossil fuel). So utilities are actually making more money when they sell their customers wind power. Where is the profit margin going? Not back into the infrastructure, that's for sure. In every major outage the true cause is utility companies not investing back into making sure that their infrastructure is resilient. That includes resiliency against wind power going offline, such as building battery storage, gravity power storage, etc.
    - maerF0x0 3y ago
      Yes, and regulation prevents them for charging the true cost for peak/constrained energy demand (except in texas where you can get a $16,752 for running your lights) Naturally theres a wide spectrum of options between fixed prices and dynamic pricing that leads to shocking results.
    - nradov 3y ago
      Your comment is completely unrealistic. The battery supply chain doesn't produce enough for grid scale storage. It will be many years until that is practical. Gravity power storage holds promise, but outside of a few limited pumped hydroelectric facilities it remains unproven.
      - ceejayoz 3y ago
        > The battery supply chain doesn't produce enough for grid scale storage. It didn't produce enough for widespread smartphone adoption, either. Until it was needed.
        nradov 3y ago
        You've got to be kidding. The quantities needed for grid scale storage are orders of magnitude larger than smartphones. We are up against fundamental supply chain limits. Production can be ramped up but that will be a slow process.
  - floatrock 3y ago
    So let's treat this like the environmental emergency it is and put some real resources and effort behind it. Growing up I was told we were the best at building things when we really want to. We can "force the timeline" on the machinery and infrastructure that we control, or nature will force the timeline on the environmental factors we can't control. All the extreme weather is showing the latter is already happening.
  - jcranmer 3y ago
    No, it's not. This is regulated industry insiders complaining about the impact of regulations on them--of course they're going to forecast doom and gloom. Actually reading the details of the report, I don't think the power plant emissions regulations is actually a major impact; it seems that the lower efficiencies of power plants during extreme heat waves is having more of an impact on potential shortfalls rather than emissions cutoff. Except maybe for Texas, but Texas in general looks extremely screwed regardless.
  - digdugdirk 3y ago
    Everything is caused by regulation in one way or another. But your statements don't represent the reality of the report that was released: https://www.nerc.com/news/Headlines%20DL/2023%20SOR%20announcement%20final.pdf https://www.nerc.com/news/Headlines%20DL/2023%20SOR%20announ... Links to detailed analyses can be found in the link above. Key notes: "... overall, the North American bulk power system (BPS) remains highly reliable and resilient. However, extreme weather events continue to pose the greatest risk to its reliability and stability" "Today’s BPS transmission system is continuing to show improvements in reliability and resilience, despite more common and extreme weather trends. However, higher overall outage rates for coal and gas generation, as well as some utility-scale solar generation not operating as necessary for reliability, indicate that there is still significant work to be accomplished" "In 2022, conventional generation experienced its highest level of unavailability (8.5%) overall since NERC began gathering GADS data in 2013 as measured by the weighted equivalent forced outage rate. Figure 3 shows consistently increasing outage rates for coal over the observed five years, correlating with higher numbers of startups and maintenance outages." Yes, there are issues to contend with when implementing new power sources. But those issues are nothing compared to the lack of investment in infrastructure more generally.
- ajsnigrutin 3y ago
  > worker shortage Are there no workers? Or no money? So a lack of educated people (electricians, electrical engineers) in the country? Or do those people get paid more to flip burgers and do other stuff?
  - smileysteve 3y ago
    There are no workers for the the desired amount of money (and a lack in the trades). The US has - The Baby Boomers reaching Medicare + Social Security eligibility age. - An Intransitive stance on immigration, leading to fewer workers, and especially an inability to hire trained workers - Migrated from trades education ~30 years ago in favor of college preparatory - Historically low unemployment (likely from the other factors) - A very difficult to navigate minimum wage, costs of goods trap; where the dog food store near me is hiring at $15/hr; while a nearby alterations place was looking for a trained head seamstress for $10/hr, and grocery chains and Amazon are offering $30/hr warehouse jobs, while waitresses make $2.25 with little enforcement on tipped wages.
    - maerF0x0 3y ago
      Boomers are going to have to suck it up and pay more taxes, or leave at which point we should exit tax them. They soaked up all the opportunities, and voted themselves no taxes, and promised themselves trillions of dollars their grandkids productivity. It's time to start hunting and punishing those who pay illegal immigrants less than minimum wage (I dont think we should bother trying to fight illegal immigration against the immigrants, punish the citizens who are breaking their local laws ie paying too little) >Historically low unemployment (likely from the other factors) I actually think this is more about the historically low amount of folks participating in the economy. A lot of these bureau stats only consider folks who want a job. But what is also really eye opening is the percent of the population who does some work. That number is hitting 40yr lows, and approaching numbers seen in 50/60s when it was far less common for women to work. Why does this matter? Imagine society has N hours of labor required to keep it functioning? If fewer people are willing to work, then the remaining worker pool must do more hours of work (or become far more productive).
- dylan604 3y ago
  >Not necessarily for lack of trying. Personally, I would disagree. The utility companies have had notice for quite some time that they are have very real capacity issues. However, the cost of bringing new generation on line is not worth it to them. They would rather keep things as is, and then ask customers to cut back, or issue rolling outages if they don't. Take the infamous Texas freeze as example where the utilities were recommended to take steps to protect against freezes, but they decided it was not worth the expense. There's a difference between equipment and generating capabilities. Failed transformers are an issue, but it's not new. Not being able to meet demand is also not new, but it's only going to continue to be an increasing problem
ajsnigrutin 3y ago
Yep, and regulators demanding even more demand with their policies (eg. ban on ICE cars coming soon, random bans on non-electric heating, cooking, etc.). edit: sure, downvote, but mandated increased demand without infrastructure first is a recipe for failure.
- black6 3y ago
  You are not wrong. Mandated shifts away from carbon-based energy systems always seem to fail to take into account the inherent increased demand on the power grid.

Not necessarily for lack of trying. > The power grid is also grappling with supply chain and worker shortage problems that have cause some power facilities to delay or cancel maintenance aimed at getting the system primed for summer. Specifically, NERC warned that low inventories of replacement transformers could derail efforts to restart power facilities following hurricanes and severe storms.

maerF0x0 3y ago
> “The intermittent nature of wind power (wind turbines only generate electricity if the wind is blowing, and how much electricity they generate depends on how windy it is) present operational challenges for grid operators,” analysts from the US Energy Information Administration wrote in a report on Monday. “Low wind and high demand periods could result in energy emergencies.” > Wind plays a central role in meeting demand in Texas as well as the two power grid regions that cover most of the central part of the United States. Drought conditions and low levels of major reservoirs could also hurt hydro power generation. > NERC also flagged concerns about new environmental rules that restrict power plant emissions, warning these regulations will limit the operation of coal-fired generators in 23 states, including Nevada, Utah and states along the Gulf Coast, mid-Atlantic and Midwest. This is the first summer since the implementation of the EPA’s Good Neighbor Plan, which aims to reduce cross-state smog from power plants and other industrial sites. This is pretty clearly regulation/environmentalist caused. Not that we shouldn't pursue a climate friendly grid, but we're not there yet and forcing the timeline is causing creaks and issues.
- lovich 3y ago
  Would we ever move if we weren’t forced or would we just get to a different emergency after putting off necessary changes? My point being is that the other option wasn’t to do a gradual, planned rollout, given the political realities
  - ajsnigrutin 3y ago
    We could still go nuclear, which gives power 24/7 no matter if it's windy, sunny, cloudy or raining. But nope...
    - bryanlarsen 3y ago
      Nuclear is great for steady state power demand, but isn't a good match for peaky power demands, like air conditioning demand during heat waves.
      - ajsnigrutin 3y ago
        You can use the excess power (during low loads at night) to generate hydrogen fuel, pump water uphill to use hydro during the day, etc.
        bryanlarsen 3y ago
        If you've got a way of storing power, why would you use expensive nuclear power rather than cheap renewable power?
        deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
    - lovich 3y ago
      Again, political realities don’t allow for nuclear in the US. The best that could get accomplished is that we start regulating how much pollution you spit out like in the above referenced “Good Neighbor” plan because all but the craziest libertarian types at least begrudgingly acknowledge that you shouldn’t be able to throw trash on someone else’s lawn
      - ajsnigrutin 3y ago
        I mean.... daily blackouts vs nuclear... which kind of a politician would you want to be? Yes, some people are stupid, a lot of "the greens" included here, but choosing unreliable and unstable power sources while demanding more power use (ban on ICE cars, ban on burning stuff for heat and cooking, etc.), is well.. stupid too.
- NathanKP 3y ago
  Saying that this is regulation / environmentalist caused is only looking at half of the picture. You could just as easily say that this is caused by greed and the desire for more profits. Wind power is extremely cheap (almost half the cost per megawatt hour compared to fossil fuel). So utilities are actually making more money when they sell their customers wind power. Where is the profit margin going? Not back into the infrastructure, that's for sure. In every major outage the true cause is utility companies not investing back into making sure that their infrastructure is resilient. That includes resiliency against wind power going offline, such as building battery storage, gravity power storage, etc.
  - maerF0x0 3y ago
    Yes, and regulation prevents them for charging the true cost for peak/constrained energy demand (except in texas where you can get a $16,752 for running your lights) Naturally theres a wide spectrum of options between fixed prices and dynamic pricing that leads to shocking results.
  - nradov 3y ago
    Your comment is completely unrealistic. The battery supply chain doesn't produce enough for grid scale storage. It will be many years until that is practical. Gravity power storage holds promise, but outside of a few limited pumped hydroelectric facilities it remains unproven.
    - ceejayoz 3y ago
      > The battery supply chain doesn't produce enough for grid scale storage. It didn't produce enough for widespread smartphone adoption, either. Until it was needed.
      - nradov 3y ago
        You've got to be kidding. The quantities needed for grid scale storage are orders of magnitude larger than smartphones. We are up against fundamental supply chain limits. Production can be ramped up but that will be a slow process.
- floatrock 3y ago
  So let's treat this like the environmental emergency it is and put some real resources and effort behind it. Growing up I was told we were the best at building things when we really want to. We can "force the timeline" on the machinery and infrastructure that we control, or nature will force the timeline on the environmental factors we can't control. All the extreme weather is showing the latter is already happening.
- jcranmer 3y ago
  No, it's not. This is regulated industry insiders complaining about the impact of regulations on them--of course they're going to forecast doom and gloom. Actually reading the details of the report, I don't think the power plant emissions regulations is actually a major impact; it seems that the lower efficiencies of power plants during extreme heat waves is having more of an impact on potential shortfalls rather than emissions cutoff. Except maybe for Texas, but Texas in general looks extremely screwed regardless.
- digdugdirk 3y ago
  Everything is caused by regulation in one way or another. But your statements don't represent the reality of the report that was released: https://www.nerc.com/news/Headlines%20DL/2023%20SOR%20announcement%20final.pdf https://www.nerc.com/news/Headlines%20DL/2023%20SOR%20announ... Links to detailed analyses can be found in the link above. Key notes: "... overall, the North American bulk power system (BPS) remains highly reliable and resilient. However, extreme weather events continue to pose the greatest risk to its reliability and stability" "Today’s BPS transmission system is continuing to show improvements in reliability and resilience, despite more common and extreme weather trends. However, higher overall outage rates for coal and gas generation, as well as some utility-scale solar generation not operating as necessary for reliability, indicate that there is still significant work to be accomplished" "In 2022, conventional generation experienced its highest level of unavailability (8.5%) overall since NERC began gathering GADS data in 2013 as measured by the weighted equivalent forced outage rate. Figure 3 shows consistently increasing outage rates for coal over the observed five years, correlating with higher numbers of startups and maintenance outages." Yes, there are issues to contend with when implementing new power sources. But those issues are nothing compared to the lack of investment in infrastructure more generally.
ajsnigrutin 3y ago
> worker shortage Are there no workers? Or no money? So a lack of educated people (electricians, electrical engineers) in the country? Or do those people get paid more to flip burgers and do other stuff?
- smileysteve 3y ago
  There are no workers for the the desired amount of money (and a lack in the trades). The US has - The Baby Boomers reaching Medicare + Social Security eligibility age. - An Intransitive stance on immigration, leading to fewer workers, and especially an inability to hire trained workers - Migrated from trades education ~30 years ago in favor of college preparatory - Historically low unemployment (likely from the other factors) - A very difficult to navigate minimum wage, costs of goods trap; where the dog food store near me is hiring at $15/hr; while a nearby alterations place was looking for a trained head seamstress for $10/hr, and grocery chains and Amazon are offering $30/hr warehouse jobs, while waitresses make $2.25 with little enforcement on tipped wages.
  - maerF0x0 3y ago
    Boomers are going to have to suck it up and pay more taxes, or leave at which point we should exit tax them. They soaked up all the opportunities, and voted themselves no taxes, and promised themselves trillions of dollars their grandkids productivity. It's time to start hunting and punishing those who pay illegal immigrants less than minimum wage (I dont think we should bother trying to fight illegal immigration against the immigrants, punish the citizens who are breaking their local laws ie paying too little) >Historically low unemployment (likely from the other factors) I actually think this is more about the historically low amount of folks participating in the economy. A lot of these bureau stats only consider folks who want a job. But what is also really eye opening is the percent of the population who does some work. That number is hitting 40yr lows, and approaching numbers seen in 50/60s when it was far less common for women to work. Why does this matter? Imagine society has N hours of labor required to keep it functioning? If fewer people are willing to work, then the remaining worker pool must do more hours of work (or become far more productive).
dylan604 3y ago
>Not necessarily for lack of trying. Personally, I would disagree. The utility companies have had notice for quite some time that they are have very real capacity issues. However, the cost of bringing new generation on line is not worth it to them. They would rather keep things as is, and then ask customers to cut back, or issue rolling outages if they don't. Take the infamous Texas freeze as example where the utilities were recommended to take steps to protect against freezes, but they decided it was not worth the expense. There's a difference between equipment and generating capabilities. Failed transformers are an issue, but it's not new. Not being able to meet demand is also not new, but it's only going to continue to be an increasing problem

ajsnigrutin 3y ago

Yep, and regulators demanding even more demand with their policies (eg. ban on ICE cars coming soon, random bans on non-electric heating, cooking, etc.). edit: sure, downvote, but mandated increased demand without infrastructure first is a recipe for failure.

black6 3y ago
You are not wrong. Mandated shifts away from carbon-based energy systems always seem to fail to take into account the inherent increased demand on the power grid.