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If the CIA isn't at least partially behind this then their competence has been greatly exaggerated. I mean toppling regimes is like their whole thing.

microtonal 3y ago
I think that would be extremely risky and therefore unlikely. If the CIA was behind this and this coup fails and it can be proven, it would legitimize the use of nukes following the Russian doctrine. That doesn't mean that Russia would use them, but it would be a significant escalation on the nuclear ladder. Also not something that is really in line with the signalling of the US, which shows acute awareness that everyone loses in a nuclear tit for tat. It's more likely that Prigozhin: wanted to topple military leadership, but Putin chose their side, so he has no other option to go after Putin; sees a window of opportunity to topple Putin and replace him; or is simply paid by a higher bidder.
- andix 3y ago
  I think they have a lot of practice to do work without being seen.
- pessimizer 3y ago
  I'm afraid that Russia could nuke Ukraine just to remove a front and focus all its attention on Wagner.
  - microtonal 3y ago
    I am no expert, but I don't think that is likely. It would isolate Russia from China and India. But even if the leadership only thinks short-term, Biden has made it pretty clear that that the use of nukes in Ukrain would not be acceptable and that there would be a non-nuclear response. The speculation is the US would wipe out the Russian black sea fleet. Putin would open a third front besides Ukraine and Prigozhin. That is probably the last thing he could use at this moment. That said, in such unstable situations pretty much anything can happen. It depends on how rational the actors stay.
andix 3y ago
Ukrainians are extremely committed to their cause, but without foreign intelligence support their situation would've probably been hopeless from the beginning. In it's core this war is NATO against Russia. So the situation in Ukraine is for sure currently one of the main jobs of the CIA.
- hdjjhhvvhga 3y ago
  > In it's core this war is NATO against Russia. No, in its core it is a war of Putin and like minded nationalists longing after Great Russia against the Ukrainian people and their right to exist as an independent country, not being slaves like Lukashenko's Belarus. The whole Europe is helping because they know Putin's victory in Ukraine would mean an existential threat to other territories. And most people just want to live in peace.
pessimizer 3y ago
This is one of the rare cases where I hope that the CIA is behind it. Otherwise, this war could have resulted in destroying a stable, though insular, Russian regime and replacing it with a new maniac. Not that the CIA hasn't empowered people that it then had no control over.
- hdjjhhvvhga 3y ago
  What's funny is that it looks like Putin really has relatively little forces left to defend the inner areas of the country, so if he really wants to fight Prigozhin forces, he at least has to consider using some of the forces deployed to Ukraine. No matter what happens to Russia, this is evidently going to help Ukraine.
  - chasd00 3y ago
    I bet China is staring at Siberia on a map and licking its chops.
- snehk 3y ago
  Are we already at the point where we support insurgents who then - out of nowhere - turn out to be even worse than the previous ruler? History really does repeat itself.
  - hef19898 3y ago
    I think we never really left that point.
orwin 3y ago
CIA competence has always been greatly exagerated. They do play on the conspiracy theories, and on a few mysteries. They are the best at preparing the terrain, and have the advantage of being backed by US elite troops for sabotage and assassination, but each time they were involved in a regime change (or even invasion planning), they were caught.
- moffkalast 3y ago
  Ah yeah that's actually an excellent point, we really only know of the things they do that they're terrible at. As that old saying goes: "When you do things right, people won't be sure that you have done anything at all."

microtonal 3y ago

I think that would be extremely risky and therefore unlikely. If the CIA was behind this and this coup fails and it can be proven, it would legitimize the use of nukes following the Russian doctrine. That doesn't mean that Russia would use them, but it would be a significant escalation on the nuclear ladder. Also not something that is really in line with the signalling of the US, which shows acute awareness that everyone loses in a nuclear tit for tat. It's more likely that Prigozhin: wanted to topple military leadership, but Putin chose their side, so he has no other option to go after Putin; sees a window of opportunity to topple Putin and replace him; or is simply paid by a higher bidder.

andix 3y ago
I think they have a lot of practice to do work without being seen.
pessimizer 3y ago
I'm afraid that Russia could nuke Ukraine just to remove a front and focus all its attention on Wagner.
- microtonal 3y ago
  I am no expert, but I don't think that is likely. It would isolate Russia from China and India. But even if the leadership only thinks short-term, Biden has made it pretty clear that that the use of nukes in Ukrain would not be acceptable and that there would be a non-nuclear response. The speculation is the US would wipe out the Russian black sea fleet. Putin would open a third front besides Ukraine and Prigozhin. That is probably the last thing he could use at this moment. That said, in such unstable situations pretty much anything can happen. It depends on how rational the actors stay.

andix 3y ago

Ukrainians are extremely committed to their cause, but without foreign intelligence support their situation would've probably been hopeless from the beginning. In it's core this war is NATO against Russia. So the situation in Ukraine is for sure currently one of the main jobs of the CIA.

hdjjhhvvhga 3y ago
> In it's core this war is NATO against Russia. No, in its core it is a war of Putin and like minded nationalists longing after Great Russia against the Ukrainian people and their right to exist as an independent country, not being slaves like Lukashenko's Belarus. The whole Europe is helping because they know Putin's victory in Ukraine would mean an existential threat to other territories. And most people just want to live in peace.

pessimizer 3y ago

This is one of the rare cases where I hope that the CIA is behind it. Otherwise, this war could have resulted in destroying a stable, though insular, Russian regime and replacing it with a new maniac. Not that the CIA hasn't empowered people that it then had no control over.

hdjjhhvvhga 3y ago
What's funny is that it looks like Putin really has relatively little forces left to defend the inner areas of the country, so if he really wants to fight Prigozhin forces, he at least has to consider using some of the forces deployed to Ukraine. No matter what happens to Russia, this is evidently going to help Ukraine.
- chasd00 3y ago
  I bet China is staring at Siberia on a map and licking its chops.
snehk 3y ago
Are we already at the point where we support insurgents who then - out of nowhere - turn out to be even worse than the previous ruler? History really does repeat itself.
- hef19898 3y ago
  I think we never really left that point.

orwin 3y ago

CIA competence has always been greatly exagerated. They do play on the conspiracy theories, and on a few mysteries. They are the best at preparing the terrain, and have the advantage of being backed by US elite troops for sabotage and assassination, but each time they were involved in a regime change (or even invasion planning), they were caught.

moffkalast 3y ago
Ah yeah that's actually an excellent point, we really only know of the things they do that they're terrible at. As that old saying goes: "When you do things right, people won't be sure that you have done anything at all."