5 ms·

Russia Slides into Civil War

54 points by pg_1234 3y ago

pg_1234 3y ago
^ https://archive.ph/BXifE https://archive.ph/BXifE
bell-cot 3y ago
This is interesting. The activity in Russia is looking a bit too widespread and real-world (vs. angry words & token action) for the usual dismissals - "there's been big talk and angry bickering between Prigozhin and the Ministry for a year or more" - to still seem credible. But unless Prigozhin and his friends have somehow managed to correctly judge a psychological "magic moment" (to have huge numbers of Putin's seemingly-loyal people suddenly switch to Prigozhin's side), then this will end horrifically for them. Putin still controls ~99% of the military forces - including all the heavy stuff - if those soldiers stay loyal to him. And from Ukraine's PoV, the whole situation is just FAR too good to be true.
- ineedasername 3y ago
  Prigoshin has been extremely careful in past statements to avoid criticizing Putin directly. He has put the blame on underlings making military decisions. This leaves him latitude to craft a narrative that preserves his ability to come to terms with Putin loyalists at the same time that he shoves Putin aside (lethaly or otherwise) or relegates Putin to the role of a mouthpiece with a gun to his head. Putin can be cast in the mold of a Great Man betrayed by his closest allies as Prigozhin rushed in to help, and even with great reluctance (/s) takes the reigns of power after the purge.
fortani 3y ago
Some good analysis of the situation here: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offens...
- mFixman 3y ago
  That video is so bizarre. Prigozhin is going way beyond the "2014 status-quo was good to protect Donbass Russian-speakers but 2022 invasion was a mistake" story that's common in Russian anti-war campaigners and actually denouncing the last decade of Russian military incursions, of which he was a major player. What is he even trying to do? There's no chance of an actual coup without support from the people or the army, and he's hated by both. His usual dramatic requests for more money and equipment won't work if the first thing you do is denounce the War, and nobody with morality or a conscience would have become the head of a Russian paramilitary group. I'm as confused as anyone reading this. Is all of this an extremely risky bet to get strategic control of the Russian army? In that case it seems to have failed spectacularly.
  - api 3y ago
    My guess is that he caught wind of an attempt on his life or that he was going to be thrown under the bus and blamed for the whole debacle. In that case he would not have much to lose. Maybe he hopes NATO, the US, or someone else will back him. Craziest thing would be for him to try to ally with Ukraine, but Ukraine could only help him by distracting the Russian army. Or maybe he’s made a deal with someone like resource hungry India or China for support in exchange for ensuring that the spice will flow and at a very reasonable price. Russia sits on enough natural gas and metals alone to make it one of the biggest prizes for kleptocrats in the world. See: the resource curse.
gsatic 3y ago
Just wondering why announce a coup attempt sitting so far away from the capital? It feels like a suicide run...unless he has supporters in Moscow. But even then it seems a bit nuts launching it from so far away from the power center.
- belter 3y ago
  The rats are leaving... "Plane used by Belarusian top officials and Lukashenko family lands in Türkiye" - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/24/7408310/ https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/24/7408310/ "Reportedly, Medvedev was evacuated from Moscow region together with his family and assistants." - https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672555268897398786 https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16725552688973987... "More and more private jets with no declared destination or Turkey as destination appear over Moscow." - https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672523999425994752 https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672523999425994752
  - fortani 3y ago
    Even the live address by Putin [1] seems to have been behind a greenscreen or edited screen and if you listen closely, there seems to be an audible din that seems to be from the whirling sounds from a jet plane. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZB3FOqBUxA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZB3FOqBUxA
- fortani 3y ago
  Supposedly this operation has been planned for 2 months: https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200 https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200 Maybe he was relying on his allies eg: General Surovikin. Nevertheless, he is correct to sense that many in the Russian Army are unhappy with how the war is panning out. But he is either miscalculating or misreading the situation, or see this as an existential crisis for himself and Wagner [1] [1] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offens...
  - 3y ago
hsjqllzlfkf 3y ago
Loony right wingers will claim this was planned by the CIA in 3... 2... 1...
- celtoid 3y ago
  I'm so old I used to be called a commie pinko for saying that three letter US intel agencies were involved in foreign coup attempts.
  - hsjqllzlfkf 3y ago
    Just because "have been involved in" doesn't mean "are involved in every instance". That's ok, it's a really common mistake.
- hsjqllzlfkf 3y ago
  Aaaaaaand there you go https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1672610521718177793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1672610521718177793?ref_src... Fuck your downvotes you morons. I was right.
fortani 3y ago
Some good discussions earlier which was unfortunately flagged https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36452290 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36452290 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36457433 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36457433
- almost_usual 3y ago
  Looks like this one was also flagged.
  - fortani 3y ago
    I guess the only solution is to message the mods to unflag these posts: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36456034 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36456034 Something historic is happening right before our eyes, and it doesn't make sense to bury our heads in the sand. Wonder if posts like the outbreak of Covid got flagged too?
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - LastNevadan 3y ago
      Perhaps the Russian FSB has also infiltrated Hacker News?
      - belter 3y ago
        Only answer that makes sense. I wonder that they think about React vs Vue.js
        fortani 3y ago
        Wonder what are their thoughts about nginx or Telegram versus Apache HTTP or Whatsapp? ;)
      - baybal2 3y ago
oliwarner 3y ago
What's going on with the flagging? This is major world news and every story is getting pulled.
- mtmail 3y ago
  It's in the guidelines "If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic"

54 points by pg_1234 3y ago

^ https://archive.ph/BXifE https://archive.ph/BXifE

This is interesting. The activity in Russia is looking a bit too widespread and real-world (vs. angry words & token action) for the usual dismissals - "there's been big talk and angry bickering between Prigozhin and the Ministry for a year or more" - to still seem credible. But unless Prigozhin and his friends have somehow managed to correctly judge a psychological "magic moment" (to have huge numbers of Putin's seemingly-loyal people suddenly switch to Prigozhin's side), then this will end horrifically for them. Putin still controls ~99% of the military forces - including all the heavy stuff - if those soldiers stay loyal to him. And from Ukraine's PoV, the whole situation is just FAR too good to be true.

ineedasername 3y ago
Prigoshin has been extremely careful in past statements to avoid criticizing Putin directly. He has put the blame on underlings making military decisions. This leaves him latitude to craft a narrative that preserves his ability to come to terms with Putin loyalists at the same time that he shoves Putin aside (lethaly or otherwise) or relegates Putin to the role of a mouthpiece with a gun to his head. Putin can be cast in the mold of a Great Man betrayed by his closest allies as Prigozhin rushed in to help, and even with great reluctance (/s) takes the reigns of power after the purge.

fortani 3y ago

Some good analysis of the situation here: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offens...

mFixman 3y ago
That video is so bizarre. Prigozhin is going way beyond the "2014 status-quo was good to protect Donbass Russian-speakers but 2022 invasion was a mistake" story that's common in Russian anti-war campaigners and actually denouncing the last decade of Russian military incursions, of which he was a major player. What is he even trying to do? There's no chance of an actual coup without support from the people or the army, and he's hated by both. His usual dramatic requests for more money and equipment won't work if the first thing you do is denounce the War, and nobody with morality or a conscience would have become the head of a Russian paramilitary group. I'm as confused as anyone reading this. Is all of this an extremely risky bet to get strategic control of the Russian army? In that case it seems to have failed spectacularly.
- api 3y ago
  My guess is that he caught wind of an attempt on his life or that he was going to be thrown under the bus and blamed for the whole debacle. In that case he would not have much to lose. Maybe he hopes NATO, the US, or someone else will back him. Craziest thing would be for him to try to ally with Ukraine, but Ukraine could only help him by distracting the Russian army. Or maybe he’s made a deal with someone like resource hungry India or China for support in exchange for ensuring that the spice will flow and at a very reasonable price. Russia sits on enough natural gas and metals alone to make it one of the biggest prizes for kleptocrats in the world. See: the resource curse.

gsatic 3y ago

Just wondering why announce a coup attempt sitting so far away from the capital? It feels like a suicide run...unless he has supporters in Moscow. But even then it seems a bit nuts launching it from so far away from the power center.

belter 3y ago
The rats are leaving... "Plane used by Belarusian top officials and Lukashenko family lands in Türkiye" - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/24/7408310/ https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/24/7408310/ "Reportedly, Medvedev was evacuated from Moscow region together with his family and assistants." - https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672555268897398786 https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16725552688973987... "More and more private jets with no declared destination or Turkey as destination appear over Moscow." - https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672523999425994752 https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672523999425994752
- fortani 3y ago
  Even the live address by Putin [1] seems to have been behind a greenscreen or edited screen and if you listen closely, there seems to be an audible din that seems to be from the whirling sounds from a jet plane. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZB3FOqBUxA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZB3FOqBUxA
fortani 3y ago
Supposedly this operation has been planned for 2 months: https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200 https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1672541087020339200 Maybe he was relying on his allies eg: General Surovikin. Nevertheless, he is correct to sense that many in the Russian Army are unhappy with how the war is panning out. But he is either miscalculating or misreading the situation, or see this as an existential crisis for himself and Wagner [1] [1] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offens...
- 3y ago

hsjqllzlfkf 3y ago

Loony right wingers will claim this was planned by the CIA in 3... 2... 1...

celtoid 3y ago
I'm so old I used to be called a commie pinko for saying that three letter US intel agencies were involved in foreign coup attempts.
- hsjqllzlfkf 3y ago
  Just because "have been involved in" doesn't mean "are involved in every instance". That's ok, it's a really common mistake.
hsjqllzlfkf 3y ago
Aaaaaaand there you go https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1672610521718177793?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1672610521718177793?ref_src... Fuck your downvotes you morons. I was right.

fortani 3y ago

Some good discussions earlier which was unfortunately flagged https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36452290 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36452290 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36457433 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36457433

almost_usual 3y ago
Looks like this one was also flagged.
- fortani 3y ago
  I guess the only solution is to message the mods to unflag these posts: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36456034 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36456034 Something historic is happening right before our eyes, and it doesn't make sense to bury our heads in the sand. Wonder if posts like the outbreak of Covid got flagged too?
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - LastNevadan 3y ago
    Perhaps the Russian FSB has also infiltrated Hacker News?
    - belter 3y ago
      Only answer that makes sense. I wonder that they think about React vs Vue.js
      - fortani 3y ago
        Wonder what are their thoughts about nginx or Telegram versus Apache HTTP or Whatsapp? ;)
    - baybal2 3y ago

oliwarner 3y ago

What's going on with the flagging? This is major world news and every story is getting pulled.

mtmail 3y ago
It's in the guidelines "If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic"