4 ms·

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebe

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

cwillu 3y ago
If I understood correctly, the leader was (originally?) claiming to be attacking an element in the military leadership he felt was responsible for a major friendly fire incident. It appears things have progressed from there, and it's possible or even likely that a coup is and always was the intent, but it's not _certain_.
- jiggywiggy 3y ago
  Yeah he is being smart, positioning himself as pro Russian. Which he probably is. But doesn't not make it a coup. Putin calling him a traitor is a death sentence. If he didn't already plan to, now his only option seems to be to move against Putin. In don't see how they can both stay in power for much longer. One of them has to go.
rixrax 3y ago
This. Especially now that after Putins speech/plea on national TV[0] for the army to put a stop on the rebellion, Wagner in telegram appears to have stated: “Putin made the wrong choice. ... Soon we will have a new president".[1] [0] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fjBVFL0k_-0 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fjBVFL0k_-0 [1] https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672511322083270659 https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16725113220832706...
watwut 3y ago
He explicitly claimed he is not against Putin, but against military leadership. So, it is totally not a coup per Prigozhin. It is kind of elementary school level of logic if you ask me, but it is the logic/argument Prigozhin is using.
- jiggywiggy 3y ago
  Yeah interesting to see. His videos are consistently insisting he is just defending and not hostile to Russia. Which is of course how he should position himself. But Putin essentially gave him the death sentence so one or the other has to go.
- ithkuil 3y ago
  So by this logic this is just a mutiny? To become a proper coup they would have to replace the government and the president who if I understand correctly is formally the leader of the military. In order to do that they should be marching towards the capital. Since this is what appears to be in progress, is it unreasonable to call it a "possible coup in progress"?
  - watwut 3y ago
    Not sure about mutiny, because he is not a soldier, technically. He is the leader of illegal but tolerated private mercenary company. (Yep Wagner are theoretically illegal per Russian law) I am definitely not blaming anyone for calling it "possible coup" or "coup" or even "an attempt to start civil war". The original intent was to explain that coup in quotation marks is also alright term to use. Edit: every single time I write "wagner are technically illegal in Russia" I get downvoted in HN. It is pattern at this point. So, guys, if that was reason for downvote, yep they are illegal per Russian law.
    - bemusedthrow75 3y ago
      It's certainly a novel situation. I suppose you could call it a mutiny in the sense that Wagner is being told by the state that it is now explicitly under the command of Shoigu, and Prighozin is refusing, which has led to what is now happening: an attempt to put down a rebellion and a mutiny.
- jussij 3y ago
  That was Prigozhin originally position. He offered support to the president and the government, just not Shoigu. But things might have changed since that first statement, because since then Putin has now come out on Russian TV denouncing the uprising and calling it high treason. So, it would appear things are starting to escalate.
TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
If January 6th disorganized mob breaching into government building can be considered a coup, then organized military force taking control over 2 major cities in Russia is definitely a coup.
- javimoran 3y ago
  One of them attacked a governmental body of a country. The other one still has not. That is why it is in quotation marks.
  - bemusedthrow75 3y ago
    It's also not entirely clear that Prighozin can get from here to there. Not least because he's a madman. My uninformed read is that what he's enraged about (a Russian strike on a Wagner encampment) actually took place, and he knows he's now a dead man walking anyway, so he's going to see what he can do with the time he has left.
  - TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
    No, they already announced that they are going after Putin "Putin made the wrong choice, all the worse for him. Soon we will have a new president." https://twitter.com/ChengWeiLai2/status/1672527502223511559#m https://twitter.com/ChengWeiLai2/status/1672527502223511559#...
- bemusedthrow75 3y ago
  I think Prighozin is as insane as the idiots who thought they could interfere with the count, and I have no idea if he's seriously considering taking out Putin. But let's be clear, the crowd breaking into the Capitol wasn't the entirety of the coup attempt, and even to write that part down as just a disorganised mob is incorrect. What was going on is better understood as an autogolpe -- a self-coup. It had several prongs -- violent, parliamentary (in the congressional sense of the word) and judicial. So, fake electors, lawsuits, attempt to persuade Pence not to count, interfering with results in several states, and the physical insurrection. The aim was to create a scenario where the handover just didn't happen, through all these interlocking parts. But the crowd could only ever have created the circumstances that delayed certification (and might have pulled that off, had Pence got in the car). It was much more co-ordinated than we have yet seen documented in courts, but that time is coming.
ZiiS 3y ago
Because it depends who wins.
LeoPanthera 3y ago
"So far this is not a coup, as there has been no bid to seize power from the government." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006880 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006880
dave4420 3y ago
Personally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now (e.g. the Kremlin, state tv, military depots, Putin / defence minister). Or been killed/arrested himself. This feels more like a civil war. It might not last long of course. We’ll see.
- jcrites 3y ago
  Wagner Group [1] is a mercenary company, by the way, named after German composer Richard Wagner [1]. Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin [2] is reportedly the founder and owner. (Wagner is not a person. Or am I misreading: who does "himself" refer to?) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Wagner https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Wagner [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin
  - dave4420 3y ago
    Yes, I’m being sloppy because I’m on my phone and can’t be bothered editing.
    - hutzlibu 3y ago
      I think it reads fine, as in Kremlin did this and that and Wagner did this and that. Wagner just stands for the group.
      - jcrites 3y ago
        I'm responding to the use of the pronoun "himself": > Personally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now ... Or been killed/arrested himself. To anyone who isn't familiar with Wagner Group, that seems to be describing Wagner as an individual person who can be "killed or arrested himself".
        3y ago
krona 3y ago
Because its a staged rebellion to end the war while saving the face of the current leadership, and hopefully avoid civil war.
- autoexec 3y ago
  You know, if it were, then I'm perfectly fine with that. Whatever makes him feel better so long as the fighting stops.
- hutzlibu 3y ago
  How are they saving face? Internal power struggles are a sign of weakness. Putin does not like to appear weak. Now while it certainly has staged elements, the power struggle between Wagner and the regular army is very real. But the outcome hopefully will actually lead to ending the war (blaming it on the Wagner traitors). Or worst case, all out nuclear war.
  - 411111111111111 3y ago
    I can't speak for a Russians perspective of saving face, as I'm an unrelated outsider. Nonetheless, if Russia ceases their aggression after this then it wouldn't have been defeated by Ukraine. You'd basically end up with non-patriots having caused the loss, as such you'll have a group of people to blame.
danpalmer 3y ago
It’s not a coup it’s a “special paramilitary operation”.
- koonsolo 3y ago
  All jokes aside, Prigozhin says it's "not a military coup but a march for justice". Incredible.
davidguetta 3y ago
The way i see a coup is usually people are in the capital. Here it's the equivalent distance of austria from Paris so there's just no "coup" at all, it's at best a "publicized attempt to stage a coup"...
sharikous 3y ago
They are still hundreds of miles away from Moscow. In a textbook coup you seize centers of power and media stations as fast as you can but this attempt is on the slow side (certainly the physical size of Russia is helping too). For now it is "only" an armed rebellion, I guess. And depending on how it unfolds it could be a lot of things. I think that this sort of thing is not very frequent in contemporary, or even modern, history, but it is very reminiscent of Roman history.

cwillu 3y ago

If I understood correctly, the leader was (originally?) claiming to be attacking an element in the military leadership he felt was responsible for a major friendly fire incident. It appears things have progressed from there, and it's possible or even likely that a coup is and always was the intent, but it's not _certain_.

jiggywiggy 3y ago
Yeah he is being smart, positioning himself as pro Russian. Which he probably is. But doesn't not make it a coup. Putin calling him a traitor is a death sentence. If he didn't already plan to, now his only option seems to be to move against Putin. In don't see how they can both stay in power for much longer. One of them has to go.

rixrax 3y ago

This. Especially now that after Putins speech/plea on national TV[0] for the army to put a stop on the rebellion, Wagner in telegram appears to have stated: “Putin made the wrong choice. ... Soon we will have a new president".[1] [0] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fjBVFL0k_-0 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fjBVFL0k_-0 [1] https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672511322083270659 https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16725113220832706...

watwut 3y ago

He explicitly claimed he is not against Putin, but against military leadership. So, it is totally not a coup per Prigozhin. It is kind of elementary school level of logic if you ask me, but it is the logic/argument Prigozhin is using.

jiggywiggy 3y ago
Yeah interesting to see. His videos are consistently insisting he is just defending and not hostile to Russia. Which is of course how he should position himself. But Putin essentially gave him the death sentence so one or the other has to go.
ithkuil 3y ago
So by this logic this is just a mutiny? To become a proper coup they would have to replace the government and the president who if I understand correctly is formally the leader of the military. In order to do that they should be marching towards the capital. Since this is what appears to be in progress, is it unreasonable to call it a "possible coup in progress"?
- watwut 3y ago
  Not sure about mutiny, because he is not a soldier, technically. He is the leader of illegal but tolerated private mercenary company. (Yep Wagner are theoretically illegal per Russian law) I am definitely not blaming anyone for calling it "possible coup" or "coup" or even "an attempt to start civil war". The original intent was to explain that coup in quotation marks is also alright term to use. Edit: every single time I write "wagner are technically illegal in Russia" I get downvoted in HN. It is pattern at this point. So, guys, if that was reason for downvote, yep they are illegal per Russian law.
  - bemusedthrow75 3y ago
    It's certainly a novel situation. I suppose you could call it a mutiny in the sense that Wagner is being told by the state that it is now explicitly under the command of Shoigu, and Prighozin is refusing, which has led to what is now happening: an attempt to put down a rebellion and a mutiny.
jussij 3y ago
That was Prigozhin originally position. He offered support to the president and the government, just not Shoigu. But things might have changed since that first statement, because since then Putin has now come out on Russian TV denouncing the uprising and calling it high treason. So, it would appear things are starting to escalate.

TheLoafOfBread 3y ago

If January 6th disorganized mob breaching into government building can be considered a coup, then organized military force taking control over 2 major cities in Russia is definitely a coup.

javimoran 3y ago
One of them attacked a governmental body of a country. The other one still has not. That is why it is in quotation marks.
- bemusedthrow75 3y ago
  It's also not entirely clear that Prighozin can get from here to there. Not least because he's a madman. My uninformed read is that what he's enraged about (a Russian strike on a Wagner encampment) actually took place, and he knows he's now a dead man walking anyway, so he's going to see what he can do with the time he has left.
- TheLoafOfBread 3y ago
  No, they already announced that they are going after Putin "Putin made the wrong choice, all the worse for him. Soon we will have a new president." https://twitter.com/ChengWeiLai2/status/1672527502223511559#m https://twitter.com/ChengWeiLai2/status/1672527502223511559#...
bemusedthrow75 3y ago
I think Prighozin is as insane as the idiots who thought they could interfere with the count, and I have no idea if he's seriously considering taking out Putin. But let's be clear, the crowd breaking into the Capitol wasn't the entirety of the coup attempt, and even to write that part down as just a disorganised mob is incorrect. What was going on is better understood as an autogolpe -- a self-coup. It had several prongs -- violent, parliamentary (in the congressional sense of the word) and judicial. So, fake electors, lawsuits, attempt to persuade Pence not to count, interfering with results in several states, and the physical insurrection. The aim was to create a scenario where the handover just didn't happen, through all these interlocking parts. But the crowd could only ever have created the circumstances that delayed certification (and might have pulled that off, had Pence got in the car). It was much more co-ordinated than we have yet seen documented in courts, but that time is coming.

ZiiS 3y ago

Because it depends who wins.

LeoPanthera 3y ago

"So far this is not a coup, as there has been no bid to seize power from the government." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006880 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006880

dave4420 3y ago

Personally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now (e.g. the Kremlin, state tv, military depots, Putin / defence minister). Or been killed/arrested himself. This feels more like a civil war. It might not last long of course. We’ll see.

jcrites 3y ago
Wagner Group [1] is a mercenary company, by the way, named after German composer Richard Wagner [1]. Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin [2] is reportedly the founder and owner. (Wagner is not a person. Or am I misreading: who does "himself" refer to?) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Wagner https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Wagner [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin
- dave4420 3y ago
  Yes, I’m being sloppy because I’m on my phone and can’t be bothered editing.
  - hutzlibu 3y ago
    I think it reads fine, as in Kremlin did this and that and Wagner did this and that. Wagner just stands for the group.
    - jcrites 3y ago
      I'm responding to the use of the pronoun "himself": > Personally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now ... Or been killed/arrested himself. To anyone who isn't familiar with Wagner Group, that seems to be describing Wagner as an individual person who can be "killed or arrested himself".
      - 3y ago

krona 3y ago

Because its a staged rebellion to end the war while saving the face of the current leadership, and hopefully avoid civil war.

autoexec 3y ago
You know, if it were, then I'm perfectly fine with that. Whatever makes him feel better so long as the fighting stops.
hutzlibu 3y ago
How are they saving face? Internal power struggles are a sign of weakness. Putin does not like to appear weak. Now while it certainly has staged elements, the power struggle between Wagner and the regular army is very real. But the outcome hopefully will actually lead to ending the war (blaming it on the Wagner traitors). Or worst case, all out nuclear war.
- 411111111111111 3y ago
  I can't speak for a Russians perspective of saving face, as I'm an unrelated outsider. Nonetheless, if Russia ceases their aggression after this then it wouldn't have been defeated by Ukraine. You'd basically end up with non-patriots having caused the loss, as such you'll have a group of people to blame.

danpalmer 3y ago

It’s not a coup it’s a “special paramilitary operation”.

koonsolo 3y ago
All jokes aside, Prigozhin says it's "not a military coup but a march for justice". Incredible.

davidguetta 3y ago

The way i see a coup is usually people are in the capital. Here it's the equivalent distance of austria from Paris so there's just no "coup" at all, it's at best a "publicized attempt to stage a coup"...

sharikous 3y ago

They are still hundreds of miles away from Moscow. In a textbook coup you seize centers of power and media stations as fast as you can but this attempt is on the slow side (certainly the physical size of Russia is helping too). For now it is "only" an armed rebellion, I guess. And depending on how it unfolds it could be a lot of things. I think that this sort of thing is not very frequent in contemporary, or even modern, history, but it is very reminiscent of Roman history.