9 ms·
Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast
- logicchains 3y agoI wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".
- cwillu 3y agoIf I understood correctly, the leader was (originally?) claiming to be attacking an element in the military leadership he felt was responsible for a major friendly fire incident. It appears things have progressed from there, and it's possible or even likely that a coup is and always was the intent, but it's not _certain_.
- jiggywiggy 3y agoYeah he is being smart, positioning himself as pro Russian. Which he probably is. But doesn't not make it a coup. Putin calling him a traitor is a death sentence. If he didn't already plan to, now his only option seems to be to move against Putin. In don't see how they can both stay in power for much longer. One of them has to go.
- rixrax 3y agoThis. Especially now that after Putins speech/plea on national TV[0] for the army to put a stop on the rebellion, Wagner in telegram appears to have stated: “Putin made the wrong choice. ... Soon we will have a new president".[1] [0] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fjBVFL0k_-0 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fjBVFL0k_-0 [1] https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672511322083270659 https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16725113220832706...
- watwut 3y agoHe explicitly claimed he is not against Putin, but against military leadership. So, it is totally not a coup per Prigozhin. It is kind of elementary school level of logic if you ask me, but it is the logic/argument Prigozhin is using.
- jiggywiggy 3y agoYeah interesting to see. His videos are consistently insisting he is just defending and not hostile to Russia. Which is of course how he should position himself. But Putin essentially gave him the death sentence so one or the other has to go.
- ithkuil 3y agoSo by this logic this is just a mutiny? To become a proper coup they would have to replace the government and the president who if I understand correctly is formally the leader of the military. In order to do that they should be marching towards the capital. Since this is what appears to be in progress, is it unreasonable to call it a "possible coup in progress"?
- watwut 3y agoNot sure about mutiny, because he is not a soldier, technically. He is the leader of illegal but tolerated private mercenary company. (Yep Wagner are theoretically illegal per Russian law) I am definitely not blaming anyone for calling it "possible coup" or "coup" or even "an attempt to start civil war". The original intent was to explain that coup in quotation marks is also alright term to use. Edit: every single time I write "wagner are technically illegal in Russia" I get downvoted in HN. It is pattern at this point. So, guys, if that was reason for downvote, yep they are illegal per Russian law.
- bemusedthrow75 3y agoIt's certainly a novel situation. I suppose you could call it a mutiny in the sense that Wagner is being told by the state that it is now explicitly under the command of Shoigu, and Prighozin is refusing, which has led to what is now happening: an attempt to put down a rebellion and a mutiny.
- TheLoafOfBread 3y agoIf January 6th disorganized mob breaching into government building can be considered a coup, then organized military force taking control over 2 major cities in Russia is definitely a coup.
- javimoran 3y agoOne of them attacked a governmental body of a country. The other one still has not. That is why it is in quotation marks.
- bemusedthrow75 3y agoIt's also not entirely clear that Prighozin can get from here to there. Not least because he's a madman. My uninformed read is that what he's enraged about (a Russian strike on a Wagner encampment) actually took place, and he knows he's now a dead man walking anyway, so he's going to see what he can do with the time he has left.
- TheLoafOfBread 3y agoNo, they already announced that they are going after Putin "Putin made the wrong choice, all the worse for him. Soon we will have a new president." https://twitter.com/ChengWeiLai2/status/1672527502223511559#m https://twitter.com/ChengWeiLai2/status/1672527502223511559#...
- bemusedthrow75 3y agoI think Prighozin is as insane as the idiots who thought they could interfere with the count, and I have no idea if he's seriously considering taking out Putin. But let's be clear, the crowd breaking into the Capitol wasn't the entirety of the coup attempt, and even to write that part down as just a disorganised mob is incorrect. What was going on is better understood as an autogolpe -- a self-coup. It had several prongs -- violent, parliamentary (in the congressional sense of the word) and judicial. So, fake electors, lawsuits, attempt to persuade Pence not to count, interfering with results in several states, and the physical insurrection. The aim was to create a scenario where the handover just didn't happen, through all these interlocking parts. But the crowd could only ever have created the circumstances that delayed certification (and might have pulled that off, had Pence got in the car). It was much more co-ordinated than we have yet seen documented in courts, but that time is coming.
- ZiiS 3y agoBecause it depends who wins.
- LeoPanthera 3y ago"So far this is not a coup, as there has been no bid to seize power from the government." https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006880 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006880
- dave4420 3y agoPersonally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now (e.g. the Kremlin, state tv, military depots, Putin / defence minister). Or been killed/arrested himself. This feels more like a civil war. It might not last long of course. We’ll see.
- jcrites 3y agoWagner Group [1] is a mercenary company, by the way, named after German composer Richard Wagner [1]. Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin [2] is reportedly the founder and owner. (Wagner is not a person. Or am I misreading: who does "himself" refer to?) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Wagner https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Wagner [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin
- dave4420 3y agoYes, I’m being sloppy because I’m on my phone and can’t be bothered editing.
- hutzlibu 3y agoI think it reads fine, as in Kremlin did this and that and Wagner did this and that. Wagner just stands for the group.
- jcrites 3y agoI'm responding to the use of the pronoun "himself": > Personally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now ... Or been killed/arrested himself. To anyone who isn't familiar with Wagner Group, that seems to be describing Wagner as an individual person who can be "killed or arrested himself".
- 3y ago
- krona 3y agoBecause its a staged rebellion to end the war while saving the face of the current leadership, and hopefully avoid civil war.
- autoexec 3y agoYou know, if it were, then I'm perfectly fine with that. Whatever makes him feel better so long as the fighting stops.
- hutzlibu 3y agoHow are they saving face? Internal power struggles are a sign of weakness. Putin does not like to appear weak. Now while it certainly has staged elements, the power struggle between Wagner and the regular army is very real. But the outcome hopefully will actually lead to ending the war (blaming it on the Wagner traitors). Or worst case, all out nuclear war.
- 411111111111111 3y agoI can't speak for a Russians perspective of saving face, as I'm an unrelated outsider. Nonetheless, if Russia ceases their aggression after this then it wouldn't have been defeated by Ukraine. You'd basically end up with non-patriots having caused the loss, as such you'll have a group of people to blame.
- danpalmer 3y agoIt’s not a coup it’s a “special paramilitary operation”.
- koonsolo 3y agoAll jokes aside, Prigozhin says it's "not a military coup but a march for justice". Incredible.
- davidguetta 3y agoThe way i see a coup is usually people are in the capital. Here it's the equivalent distance of austria from Paris so there's just no "coup" at all, it's at best a "publicized attempt to stage a coup"...
- sharikous 3y agoThey are still hundreds of miles away from Moscow. In a textbook coup you seize centers of power and media stations as fast as you can but this attempt is on the slow side (certainly the physical size of Russia is helping too). For now it is "only" an armed rebellion, I guess. And depending on how it unfolds it could be a lot of things. I think that this sort of thing is not very frequent in contemporary, or even modern, history, but it is very reminiscent of Roman history.
- woodpanel 3y ago> Swift Forecaster: 42%. Very uncertain about this right now. after the west being duped by him time and again, has there been zero introspection into our own biases? How is anyone believing this?
- woodpanel 3y ago[flagged]
- rixrax 3y agoWill current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.
- lloydatkinson 3y agoAs I understand it Wagner have already taken control of or surrounded various buildings in Moscow
- exizt88 3y agoThis is false. The Wagner column is 500 kms away from Moscow.
- lloydatkinson 3y agoHard to say what the videos in Moscow are of then if that’s the case.
- amaccuish 3y agoThey're likely the "anti-terrorist" measures that have been announced. Not hard to say at all.
- jcrites 3y agoRussian (state) controlled vehicles there for security? Can you link to sources? The (very few) videos that I've seen look like Russian state vehicles.
- watwut 3y agoNot Wagner. They are preparation - response of Russian security services to potential threat.
- simion314 3y agoIt was other city far from Moscow. What I see is civilians are split in 2 camps , young ones that follow social media will probably be in one camp and old people that only follow TV will be in other camp. Let's see what is next. And I see that a few started blaming USA, Israel and nazis for this.
- TekMol 3y agoWhat is the state of decentralized betting platforms where people can place crypto on their predictions? Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions? Everybody with expertise or inside knowledge who sees the probabilities are off would rush in, place bets and "correct" the probabilities while making a profit.
- 55555 3y agoThe people who have legitimate inside information are billionaires and I doubt the market would be that deep. And it's a genuine coup, so the outcome is fundamentally unknowable. But yeah, historically prediction markets are great for stuff like this.
- PartiallyTyped 3y agoAs of 11:05 cest, 2023-06-24, manifold thinks Russia will curb wagner group, and reaching moscow is at 10%. It id considered a serious attempt (95%). Expect a civil war by July 14 (70%).
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- shusaku 3y agoMetaculus has regime change at 16% right now: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-regime-change-by-2024/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10246/russian-coup-or-re...
- jacquesm 3y agoup 3% in one hour
- stavros 3y agoThis sounds like a "length of the emperor's nose" situation.
- foverzar 3y ago
- bsaul 3y agovery confused by the logo, which is the one from the swift programming language. What's the relationship ?
- veave 3y agoIt looks similar but not the same.
- messe 3y agoA swift is a type of bird: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swift_(bird) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swift_(bird)
- bsaul 3y agooh ok, i had no idea..
- 55555 3y agoIt's not the exact same logo. It may just be another representation of a swift (a type of bird).
- tibbydudeza 3y agoThey are in Voronezh now on their way to capture local airfield - regular Russian units backfilled with conscripts (the good ones were all decimated in Ukraine) won't take on Wagner troops on the ground. Air power will be the key.
- oneshtein 3y agoQuote: A modern Russian meme is "to bomb Voronezh". A typical joke went like: "Obama ordered new sanctions on Russia; Putin retaliated by bombing Voronezh". Voronezh, a quaint provincial town south off Moscow, is unremarkable by itself, an Anytown, Russia. Bombing Voronezh is a hyperbola describing the favorite game of Russian ruler, - to punish his citizens for his own mistakes. T
- topspin 3y agoMultiple videos from apartment dwellers in Voronezh of a KH-52 destroying a tank farm. Either Wagner was fueling up there or the Russian military is trying to deny fuel to Wagner, or both.
- topspin 3y agoThis is off the hook. @mysaigin says the AN-24 shoot down is old... oh well. If nothing else Putin's prerogatives just experienced a sudden realignment. Going to be hard to continue prosecuting the Ukraine invasion.
- SSchick 3y agosource?
- geonik 3y agohttps://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672528514547953664?s=20 https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672528514547953664?s=20
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- watwut 3y agoIs that actually confirmed? As in, is there a reason to believe it happened and that it is not some old video from elsewhere resurfacing? (People always post old videos on twitter claiming they relate to current situation.)
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- sph 3y agoThis is just a random guy on Twitter. Can we leave this kind of clickbait emotional reporting to Reddit please?
- consumer451 3y agoEd Nash is a military analyst who has provided factual information in the past. This video includes a translated statement from the leader of Wagner: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIY3OfSU1VY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIY3OfSU1VY Here is a Russian anti-war streamer. This is a much longer and less formal video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIn41Gl6pVU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIn41Gl6pVU
- rpadovani 3y agoI am curious on how this will reflect on the Ukraine invasion: as far as I understand, Wagner was a huge source of soldiers on the front lines. I am sure this coup, however it will ends, is a major source of distraction from the war. Meanwhile, Ukraine is pushing east: will they be able to use this coup to liberate some territories?
- rwmj 3y agoSurely at least part of the regular Russian army will have to be pulled back to defend Moscow.
- topspin 3y agoThe big question, the only question that really matters at this point, is will the Russian military remain loyal? If they don't then it's all over for Putin.
- marak830 3y agoAn additional qiestin would be is : how many experienced groups do they have vs new conscripts with minimal training?
- webmobdev 3y agoIt was inevitable - this is what happens when you allow private armies as a business. Nearly a century ago, when the British government decided to take control of a private army the British empire ultimately collapsed because of the backlash from the corporates who ran it. Putin is right to act swiftly and harshly against this kind of behaviour before they become an actual threat to the nation - Mercenaries, unlike national armies, tend to prioritise money and power. (In fact, the harsh action against them seems to suggest that is exactly how the Russians are looking at it - that this group has been paid to rebel).
- logicchains 3y agoThe reason they had a private army was to do dirty stuff in Africa that would cause an international incident if the Russian military was involved directly. Without Wagner, it'd have been much harder for Russia to force project. The core problem is the poorly managed war; Wagner'd be unlikely to rebel if the war was going well and everyone was satisfied with the Russian leadership.
- webmobdev 3y agoPrivate Armies or Private Military Contractors are desired by governments who want to deflect political accountability, and, to that end, Russian leadership isn't any different to the west on how they've been using them. In the Ukraine conflict, the Wagner group has often been used as cannon fodder. Especially in Bakhmut, where the Ukranians recently lost the bulk of their real soldiers, good soldiers, while the brunt of Russian losses was borne by the Wagner group and not the Russian military. (That is one explanation of why the Wagner group is pissed at Russian military, and, thus, the mutiny). I agree with your perspective that certain aspects of the war weren't managed well by Russia, but disagree that war isn't going well for Russia - they appear to have achieved 80% of their strategic objectives by annexing Crimea and bordering areas of Ukraine, and holding on to it while Ukranian counter-offensives have failed to dislodge the Russians. In fact military experts in both US (Ukraine’s Chances of Victory in 2023 are Vanishingly Small - https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/06/ukraines-chances-of-victory-in-2023-are-vanishingly-small/ https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/06/ukraines-chances-of-vict... ) and India (Final Battle In Russia-Ukraine War? - https://youtu.be/D0oA-Y5eTs4 https://youtu.be/D0oA-Y5eTs4 ) agree that the chances of a Ukraine counter-offensive being successful are quite low.
- brutusborn 3y agoDoes anyone have sources for this stuff? I am seeing a lot of conjecture and not a lot of substance. Is this whole thing based on a couple telegram videos? Is there anything to suggest they aren’t just propaganda deepfakes?
- shusaku 3y agoThe Eastern Border podcast has been my go to for awhile: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/prigozhin-crisis/id1070996136?i=1000618154361 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/prigozhin-crisis/id107... The fog of war over Ukraine does continue to frustrate. You really wish there was live, perfect info sources to keep you in the know, but even ten years from now there are sure to be questions. Edit: just got through the most recent episode and want to warn that it’s a bit crazy conspiratorial, but interesting…
- watwut 3y agoPutin made speech in national TV.
- jussij 3y agoThere are plenty of youtube videos showing Wagner forces control the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don. They can't all be fake.
- diimdeep 3y agoHere is local news agency in Rostov with plenty of media https://t.me/privet_rostov_ru https://t.me/privet_rostov_ru
- hutzlibu 3y agoIt definitely is real, that the head of Wagner, which acted as Putins man of brute shadow force - is now an enemy of Putin. This was coming since a while, since Prigoshin stepped over the line many times and he refused the ultimatum by the Russian Ministry of Defence, to put Wagner Forces tightly under MoD control. And now things are escalating. Everything else is filled with deepfakes, old footage and co But Wagner forces are around 25 000. It is not clear how loyal the bulk of them are towards Prigoshin personally (I have my doubts) but many russian russians share the hate for the MoD. And there is solid evidence, that they control some area.
- sour-taste 3y agoCan someone tell me why Putin let it get this far? It seems pretty foreseeable that when you have two independent militaries in constant conflict with each other, and when the heads of both are publicly insulting and threatening each other that eventually this will boil over. Did he just need Wagner that badly that he tolerated the open insults to his military as long as they were winning battles in Ukraine? Didn't the head of Wagner have close ties to Putin? I guess those are pretty much severed now?
- hutzlibu 3y agoMy estimation: short term it will fail. Long term it will lead to substantial power movement. Most of the young nationalistic russians are Wagner fans and despise the ordinary military, they view as corrupt and incompetent (which might be very true). But they have been the fuel of the war. If Wagner is no more, or just a soulless hulk, this fuel is gone and moral will drop significantly. And the current options for Prigoshin are a) become a marty b) submit to "justice" and public trial (but he knows this will likely not happen, but rather bullet or poison) c) defect to Ukraine He already made clear statements, that the war was wrong from the beginning, there was never a threat from Ukraine and the evil military commanders gave Putin wrong information. This sounds to me like building a bridge. In either case, for the russian empire it is a desaster. And if it becomes a true desaster, there are chances it will become a disaster for everyone, as russian think tanks openly discussed the possibility of "preemptive counter nuclear strike". If they are about to die, they are willing to take everyone with them. Mostly this is surely bluffing, as they made that statement, while they the internal power struggle was already ongoing as a message to the west: "don't exploit our weakness, we still have nukes". But partly I think it is a legit threat of cornered bullies.
- jacquesm 3y ago> defect to Ukraine I don't see that happening.
- hutzlibu 3y agoMe currently neither. But this seems to be his only choice, where he would go on living. I am sure, there are secret negotiations taking place behind the scenes. But he knows, that he will confirm in the eye of the russian public, that he is a traitor then. But officially he already is and his loyal forces can never take Moscow.
- jacquesm 3y agoEither he or Putin will be dead in the next few weeks, my money is on Putin surviving for the time being. But he's going to come out much weaker.
- dagaci 3y agoThis like AOE2, where an enemy quietly cuts through the huge forest and the enemy suddenly appears in your base when most of your army is at the front. Your front is wrecked if you run back, and your game is wrecked if you don’t.
- Lewton 3y ago@dang anything mentioning Wagner group is being flagged off the main page, I could see why some people would react that way when there’s a 20 articles shared about the same thing in an hour, but it’s a bit disturbing that there’s currently zero articles on the front page about this
- sph 3y agoQuit using HN for general news. Go to your favourite news website, they all have a live section about this unfolding event. I could not care less what software engineers have to say on the matter.
- dmarchand90 3y agoThere is precedent for hackernews covering unusually large and important events. Covid, Jan 6th, the start of the Ukraine War. I don't see the problem with some general news of large scale importance, e.g., a hostile mercenary force is a 4 hour drive away from the capital of the state with the largest supply of nuclear weapons Agree we shouldn't lose focus but this seems rare and important enough to be worth discussing. From the guidelines of what is off-topic "Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, or celebrities, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon."
- ModernMech 3y agoSlashdot used to get complaints like this all the time (maybe still does, wouldn't know). They would be followed by a recitation of the Slashdot motto: "News for nerds, stuff that matters. This is a story that matters." Usually shut people up immediately. HN also suffers nerds not wanting to hear about anything except nerd shit, but we don't have a handy shorthand to shut down these tedious complaints.
- sph 3y ago[flagged]
- tomalaci 3y agoBBC seems to be more "Live" with recent events including them taking another city/town [1]. [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142 https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142
- messe 3y agoThe Guardian's Ukraine live blog has good coverage as well: https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/ukraine-live https://www.theguardian.com/world/series/ukraine-live
- Redoubts 3y agoWhat… is this site and what’s with the swiftlang logo
- JeremyNT 3y agoReporting from a traditional media outlet: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wagner-head-suggests-his-mercenaries-headed-moscow-take-army-leadership-2023-06-24/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wagner-head-suggests-hi...
- tmaly 3y agoI find it funny how everyone is suddenly a Russian foreign policy expert. Given the fog of war, I am taking a wait and see approach.
- cmurf 3y agoEspecially where politics is proscribed. No exercise or training allowed but lets go sprint on race day!