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Wagner leader Prigozhin is gambling and betting everything on red (or black?). The problem for the Russian government is that many ordinary pro-war Russians se

by rdtsc 3y ago

Wagner leader Prigozhin is gambling and betting everything on red (or black?). The problem for the Russian government is that many ordinary pro-war Russians see Prigozhin as a hero. If they kill him, he'll become a martyr. For all I care both sides are war criminals and should answer for their atrocities in Ukraine. If they can kill each other without also killing civilians, don't think we should stand in their way too much.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> If they kill him, he'll become a martyr Prigozhin seems to be playing this savvily. Extremely savvily. He isn't directly threatening Putin. There is a face-saving change in which Shoigu et al are executed and Prigozhin and Putin split their cookies. Putin can frame it as discovering they lied to him, and possibly even re-set expectations for the war in Ukraine.
- api 3y ago
  What if the whole thing is about Putin setting up some lower level fall guys for a loss in Ukraine? Prigozhin maybe? Provoke him into doing something crazy, take him out, then claim he is responsible for failure on the front or even that he's a traitor and was working with Ukraine or something.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- ptero 3y ago
  Totally an armchair opinion, but I think Prigozhin is a toast and he knows it. He cannot fight (troops hated, plus ranks decimated in Bakhmut) and cannot hide (no one will take him). He may be just trying to go down with a bang. My 2c.
  - everyone 3y ago
    Wagner are actualy the coup masters, that was like their main job. Wagner's bread and butter before the war was getting control of small countries and especially gold and diamond mines and other valuable resources in Africa. Maybe Prygozhyn reckons russia is about as weak as one of those countries now and he can take it. He has some popular support. Sure russia has the nukes, but they cant use them to stop a coup, are they gonna nuke themselves?
  - treis 3y ago
    Wagner definitely can fight and I think this is a real danger for Putin. The invasion did not go well and he's vulnerable to more hawkish members of the military who wish to escalate the war. It's not guaranteed that units will agree to deploy against other Russians. Not guaranteed that if they deploy they will fight. Not guaranteed that if they fight they will win. Wagner has crossed the Rubicon and now it's do or die for them. They'll fight hard and are probably the most capable individual fighting force in Russia right now. Biggest challenge they face is air strikes. But if they brought SAMs with them or the air force won't bomb things will get dicey quickly.
    - ptero 3y ago
      > Wagner has crossed the Rubicon Prigozhin did, and maybe a few of his top lieutenants, but Wagner is not a uniform structure. Wagner is a mix of: A) Older, experienced soldiers of fortune types. They did tours in Africa and other places and know how to fight. They are not too numerous and they have absolutely no interest in politics, fairness and especially any conflict with regular Russian forces. They are doing the job, they want to get paid, but instead of the paycheck the latest adventure is likely to stamp them with "treason". B) New cannon fodder, hired from poor regions for decent (for their area) money after the invasion. They are not experienced fighters and they suffered greatly in Bakhmut. This is not your coup makers. Putin tells them to come home, they will. C) Prison rabble, taken from prisons often with 10+ year of their sentence remaining. Their contract is that if they survive a 6-month tour they get remaining sentence voided. There are a lot of them. Getting killed in Bakhmut was a part of the contract. But this march gives them nothing. Instead of walking free they will likely end up back in prison, with new scars. If Russian army offers to honor the original contract (freedom for a 6-month tour), they will just as happily fight for it. I do not think there is any desire at Wagner to fight the Russian army. In fact this may be a theater, designed in Kremlin to tighten the screws at home and as a side benefit to snuff out Prigozhin who seems to be getting unhinged lately. But we shall see...
tootie 3y ago
I'll say this, the guy is bold as hell. He's an absolute maniac and probably worse than Putin but he sure isn't afraid of anything. One can only hope he wrecks enough chaos make the war in Ukraine untenable. I'll also say this, Putin played his hand as poorly as humanly possible. He spent decades stockpiling loyalty and political capital with an iron fist and spent it all in less two years and has absolutely nothing to show for it. I think it's time to admit that beneath his steely-eyed, stoic demeanor he isn't half as smart as he's been given credit for.
- 1MachineElf 3y ago
  I'll say one thing - I wish US generals would publicly speak our against our wars and the lies behind them.
  - foogazi 3y ago
    This guy is not speaking out - he was directly recruiting prisoners from jails and profiting mightily It’s just part of the game
  - tootie 3y ago
    This guy is just pushing his own militaristic agenda. Also, he's not a general. He's the head of a mercenary/human trafficking organization. The US equivalent would be Erik Prince who has definitely been working his own agenda also and it isn't more benevolent than the Pentagon.
- api 3y ago
  He watched the US disaster with Iraq and was like “oh yeah? hold my vodka…” He even spread lies about Ukrainian bio weapons (WMDs!) in an echo of the Iraq war buildup BS. Someone should have told him that Iraq was a disaster for the US and is now widely regarded as such by most of DC (whether or not they say it in public).
  - 1270018080 3y ago
    America lost like 4k soldiers over the 8 year war and lost no economic standing. It was expensive and stupid but not really a disaster for us. Russia has lost over 100k in a year and effectively destroyed their economy and place in the world outside of nukes, all for basically no reason.
freitasm 3y ago
That's not the case. He is saying things against the Army but still saying Putin was misguided by Army information. It's more like he's trying to save Putin's by saying "the war was not his [Putin's] fault.
- dragonwriter 3y ago
  Its an attempt to seize power from Putin even if it includes a face-saving way for Putin to surrender and retain nominal position.

by rdtsc 3y ago

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> If they kill him, he'll become a martyr Prigozhin seems to be playing this savvily. Extremely savvily. He isn't directly threatening Putin. There is a face-saving change in which Shoigu et al are executed and Prigozhin and Putin split their cookies. Putin can frame it as discovering they lied to him, and possibly even re-set expectations for the war in Ukraine.

api 3y ago
What if the whole thing is about Putin setting up some lower level fall guys for a loss in Ukraine? Prigozhin maybe? Provoke him into doing something crazy, take him out, then claim he is responsible for failure on the front or even that he's a traitor and was working with Ukraine or something.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
ptero 3y ago
Totally an armchair opinion, but I think Prigozhin is a toast and he knows it. He cannot fight (troops hated, plus ranks decimated in Bakhmut) and cannot hide (no one will take him). He may be just trying to go down with a bang. My 2c.
- everyone 3y ago
  Wagner are actualy the coup masters, that was like their main job. Wagner's bread and butter before the war was getting control of small countries and especially gold and diamond mines and other valuable resources in Africa. Maybe Prygozhyn reckons russia is about as weak as one of those countries now and he can take it. He has some popular support. Sure russia has the nukes, but they cant use them to stop a coup, are they gonna nuke themselves?
- treis 3y ago
  Wagner definitely can fight and I think this is a real danger for Putin. The invasion did not go well and he's vulnerable to more hawkish members of the military who wish to escalate the war. It's not guaranteed that units will agree to deploy against other Russians. Not guaranteed that if they deploy they will fight. Not guaranteed that if they fight they will win. Wagner has crossed the Rubicon and now it's do or die for them. They'll fight hard and are probably the most capable individual fighting force in Russia right now. Biggest challenge they face is air strikes. But if they brought SAMs with them or the air force won't bomb things will get dicey quickly.
  - ptero 3y ago
    > Wagner has crossed the Rubicon Prigozhin did, and maybe a few of his top lieutenants, but Wagner is not a uniform structure. Wagner is a mix of: A) Older, experienced soldiers of fortune types. They did tours in Africa and other places and know how to fight. They are not too numerous and they have absolutely no interest in politics, fairness and especially any conflict with regular Russian forces. They are doing the job, they want to get paid, but instead of the paycheck the latest adventure is likely to stamp them with "treason". B) New cannon fodder, hired from poor regions for decent (for their area) money after the invasion. They are not experienced fighters and they suffered greatly in Bakhmut. This is not your coup makers. Putin tells them to come home, they will. C) Prison rabble, taken from prisons often with 10+ year of their sentence remaining. Their contract is that if they survive a 6-month tour they get remaining sentence voided. There are a lot of them. Getting killed in Bakhmut was a part of the contract. But this march gives them nothing. Instead of walking free they will likely end up back in prison, with new scars. If Russian army offers to honor the original contract (freedom for a 6-month tour), they will just as happily fight for it. I do not think there is any desire at Wagner to fight the Russian army. In fact this may be a theater, designed in Kremlin to tighten the screws at home and as a side benefit to snuff out Prigozhin who seems to be getting unhinged lately. But we shall see...

tootie 3y ago

I'll say this, the guy is bold as hell. He's an absolute maniac and probably worse than Putin but he sure isn't afraid of anything. One can only hope he wrecks enough chaos make the war in Ukraine untenable. I'll also say this, Putin played his hand as poorly as humanly possible. He spent decades stockpiling loyalty and political capital with an iron fist and spent it all in less two years and has absolutely nothing to show for it. I think it's time to admit that beneath his steely-eyed, stoic demeanor he isn't half as smart as he's been given credit for.

1MachineElf 3y ago
I'll say one thing - I wish US generals would publicly speak our against our wars and the lies behind them.
- foogazi 3y ago
  This guy is not speaking out - he was directly recruiting prisoners from jails and profiting mightily It’s just part of the game
- tootie 3y ago
  This guy is just pushing his own militaristic agenda. Also, he's not a general. He's the head of a mercenary/human trafficking organization. The US equivalent would be Erik Prince who has definitely been working his own agenda also and it isn't more benevolent than the Pentagon.
api 3y ago
He watched the US disaster with Iraq and was like “oh yeah? hold my vodka…” He even spread lies about Ukrainian bio weapons (WMDs!) in an echo of the Iraq war buildup BS. Someone should have told him that Iraq was a disaster for the US and is now widely regarded as such by most of DC (whether or not they say it in public).
- 1270018080 3y ago
  America lost like 4k soldiers over the 8 year war and lost no economic standing. It was expensive and stupid but not really a disaster for us. Russia has lost over 100k in a year and effectively destroyed their economy and place in the world outside of nukes, all for basically no reason.

freitasm 3y ago

That's not the case. He is saying things against the Army but still saying Putin was misguided by Army information. It's more like he's trying to save Putin's by saying "the war was not his [Putin's] fault.

dragonwriter 3y ago
Its an attempt to seize power from Putin even if it includes a face-saving way for Putin to surrender and retain nominal position.