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Wagner coup in Russia? Wagner declared war on the Russian army

294 points by _V_ 3y ago

_V_ 3y ago
Also: Russia accuses Wagner chief of urging 'armed mutiny' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66005256 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66005256
rhn_mk1 3y ago
Cloudflarewall?
- 5e92cb50239222b 3y ago
  Try the mirror. https://archive.is/jWcb8 https://archive.is/jWcb8
tibbydudeza 3y ago
FSB has been mobilized in Moscow and security plan "Fortress" has been enacted to safeguard govt buildings in Moscow. I am getting popcorn.
- dlahoda 3y ago
  prove?
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - _V_ 3y ago
    Well either this is the best psyop I have seen in a long time or something is happening: https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1672359193863487491 https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1672359193863487491
    - chrisco255 3y ago
      This is just armored vehicles rolling down a road. No context, no way to validate timestamp, no nothing. Even if it was precautionary stationing of troops, as done when the National Guard is activated, it doesn't mean the country is undergoing a revolution. Sorry.
      - _V_ 3y ago
        Nothing stopping you searching Telegram *shrug emoji* I'm trying to add more info but it is (as one might expect) quite chaotic right now.
    - api 3y ago
      It's the same people who faked the moon landings and the Sandy Hook shooting. /jk Something is clearly happening, but it's hard to tell exactly what. Fog of war and all that.
      - _V_ 3y ago
        Of course - it is unfolding right now. We'll get a better picture later, but for now I'm posting what I can get (along with sources so everyone can follow up/make their mind).
- irjustin 3y ago
  Link me please!!!
- tibbydudeza 3y ago
  https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en
5e92cb50239222b 3y ago
There has been a lot of talk, but no concrete actions yet. No marches anywhere, no clashes between regular armed forces and the PMC, nothing. Some armored vehicles were put on the streets of Moscow and Rostov (which is located near the border with Ukraine), but that's about it. https://t.me/svtvnews/31224 https://t.me/svtvnews/31224 https://t.me/svtvnews/31232 https://t.me/svtvnews/31232
- int_19h 3y ago
  Prigozhin claims that the army hit Wagner bases in Ukraine with rockets, although there doesn't seem to be any confirmation of this so far.
- yakshaving_jgt 3y ago
  This is all unfolding literally right now. It looks like a military base in Moscow is now on fire. Edit… Also reports of fighting between Wagner and russia's national guard on the Rostov-Moscow highway. Wagner are on the move towards Moscow.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > looks like a military base in Moscow is now on fire Source?
    - yakshaving_jgt 3y ago
      Videos are circulating on Telegram.
  - lamontcg 3y ago
    Rostov is 1,000 km from Moscow.
    - yakshaving_jgt 3y ago
      And what?
    - 3y ago
tibbydudeza 3y ago
"The leftovers of Wagners on the outskirts of Bakhmut opened fire on the regular roads of the Russian Federation. Our assault brigades see everything, systematic strikes are now being carried out on the positions of the Russians. You would hear the radio broadcast of these ** now. The impression is that part of the Russian regular troops are killing their own, and it seems that part of the military is supporting Prigozhin. While it is not clear what is finally happening, it is a bloodbath" https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672329674729373696 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672329674729373696
_V_ 3y ago
«We're on our way to Moscow, and anyone who entered our centres will answer for it» - Prigozhin https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672358497067970561 https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16723584970679705...
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  Is this a serious attempt at a military coup? Wagner's command is competent. The recent border incursions show Russia is lightly fortified, possibly Moscow, too. The wild card would appear to be the FSB. Do they tend ultranationalist? Or will they be loyal to Shoigu?
  - _V_ 3y ago
    Too soon to say for real - but something seems to be happening. There is quite a lot of noise from Russia.
  - sidewndr46 3y ago
    My guess is that either the Ministry of Defense or Putin ordered a hit on Prigohzin. It either failed or he got wind of it. The best way to ensure his own safety at this point is a coup.
    - AnimalMuppet 3y ago
      The best way to insure his death is also a coup attempt. If he succeeds, he lives (maybe). If he fails, he definitely dies. He still may think that gives him better odds than not attempting the coup does, under current conditions...
      - _V_ 3y ago
        Well, they can't kill him twice...
      - BasedAnon 3y ago
        At some point the risk of dying between action and inaction becomes similar enough that the value of winning is worth it. Someone who has little to lose is more easily driven to action.
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
Prigozhin gaining power, potentially even over Putin, would be horrible for Russians, but stabilizing for Europe. (See: North Korea.)
- 5e92cb50239222b 3y ago
  You know the guy has been pushing for war economy, closed borders, full mobilization and total war? Stabilizing my ass — if he ever takes power, it's likely to become even worse for everyone involved.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > the guy has been pushing for war economy, closed borders, full mobilization and total war He's also saying the war was a mistake. Prigozhin's base is ultranationalist–that's what's propelling him now. If he succeeds in taking the reins of the state, his base and thus incentives shift. The new rhetoric may reflect him realizing he's closer to that than anyone realized.
- bemusedthrow75 3y ago
  He would stabilise nothing. You realise he's off his rocker, right? The stopped clock has just been momentarily right. There is no situation where it is a good idea that a mercenary army leader whose staff are criminals takes power over a nuclear-armed state.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > would stabilise nothing Do we really expect Putin to manage a peaceful transfer of power? Devil you know, and all that.
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
_V_ 3y ago
Wagner PMC has responded to the pleas of RU generals for them to not to listen to Prigozhin: > Все генералы, которые с трясущимися руками обращаются к музыкантам с призывами остановиться уже фактически подписали себе приговор. Трибунал обязательно будет. Суровикин еще ответит за сдачу Херсона. > (Google Translate) All the generals who, with trembling hands, appeal to the musicians to stop, have actually signed their own sentence. There will be a tribunal. Surovikin will still answer for the surrender of Kherson. https://t.me/apwagner/9116 https://t.me/apwagner/9116
fwungy 3y ago
This is absurd. It makes no sense. I'm calling psyop.
- dzhiurgis 3y ago
  Could be form of surrendering troops from Ukraine without loosing face or “excuse” for tactical nukes or dogwhistle for US spies to aid the revolution
- _V_ 3y ago
  Who knows, too soon. But Prigozhin did seemingly lose to Shoigu earlier when Putin agreed to have all the "external" soldiers to be under the ShoiguúMoD command. So this may very well be the final fight between the two.
- valine 3y ago
  It could be a psyop, but it's far from absurd. Tensions between Yevgeny Prigozhin and Putin have been high. Most notable were the public threats from Wagner to pull out of Bakhmut due to lack of supplies. If anyone has the potential to seize power away from Putin, it's Prigozhin. Prigozhin has an army, one which is vital to Putin's war effort. Do you really think Prigozhin wouldn't turn on Putin given the opportunity?
- int_19h 3y ago
  If this is absurd, why has it been predicted for several months now by the likes of Strelkov?
- bawolff 3y ago
  I wouldn't say none. If you're going to plan a coup, do it well the military is distracted.
  - nurandal 3y ago
    true: but looking at whats being posted on telegram and twitter, it looks like the russian security services (which probably weren't affected by the russian army recruitment draft) still have a lot of people (and brand new shiny jeeps and afvs, despite the shortage of new vehicles in ukraine for them).
akomtu 3y ago
The horror of every tyrant: when one of his commanders realizes that he has more power than his boss.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > when one of his commanders realizes that he has more power than his boss When one of the commanders realizes they're physically between the army and the unguarded palace.
- phkahler 3y ago
  If you aim for the king you better not miss. If this is for real, someone is finished.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
Is there a deal Kyiv can strike with Putin in this moment?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- x3874 3y ago
  [flagged]
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > Moscow striking a deal with the comedian The head of state who's besting them in a war? Yes, that guy.
  - alvarezbjm-hn 3y ago
    Sounds better than sabblerattling with nuclear warheads. Ukraine is still receiving weapons. Agaisnt all odds, the west has recognized they had better at least keep the war in Ukraine, not allow Russia to extend their frontiers.
  - yakshaving_jgt 3y ago
    The terrorist regime in russia is collapsing. Ideally, the terrorist state of russia will be completely formatted, with all those loyal to putin arrested or killed. This is the best prospect for peace on this planet. Are you not happy about this?
- int_19h 3y ago
  Why would they want to? If this does escalate enough, it would make more sense for them to redouble the efforts for their offensive - they still have plenty of reserves that haven't entered the fray yet. And then, if the plan to cut off Crimea succeeds, they could try to negotiate with Russia - on much stronger terms.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
rdtsc 3y ago
Wagner leader Prigozhin is gambling and betting everything on red (or black?). The problem for the Russian government is that many ordinary pro-war Russians see Prigozhin as a hero. If they kill him, he'll become a martyr. For all I care both sides are war criminals and should answer for their atrocities in Ukraine. If they can kill each other without also killing civilians, don't think we should stand in their way too much.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > If they kill him, he'll become a martyr Prigozhin seems to be playing this savvily. Extremely savvily. He isn't directly threatening Putin. There is a face-saving change in which Shoigu et al are executed and Prigozhin and Putin split their cookies. Putin can frame it as discovering they lied to him, and possibly even re-set expectations for the war in Ukraine.
  - api 3y ago
    What if the whole thing is about Putin setting up some lower level fall guys for a loss in Ukraine? Prigozhin maybe? Provoke him into doing something crazy, take him out, then claim he is responsible for failure on the front or even that he's a traitor and was working with Ukraine or something.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
  - ptero 3y ago
    Totally an armchair opinion, but I think Prigozhin is a toast and he knows it. He cannot fight (troops hated, plus ranks decimated in Bakhmut) and cannot hide (no one will take him). He may be just trying to go down with a bang. My 2c.
    - everyone 3y ago
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
Youden 3y ago
Better known source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-boss-says-moscows-war-ukraine-based-lies-2023-06-23/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-boss-...
- 082349872349872 3y ago
  ...and on the other side, even ТАСС has been reporting on it: https://tass.com/russia/1637443 https://tass.com/russia/1637443 Edit: note that the TASS coverage is far more up-to-date in russian than english. (protip: translate.yandex.com) Новость дополняется. https://tass.ru/delo-v-otnoshenii-prigozhina-ob-organizacii-vooruzhennogo-myatezha https://tass.ru/delo-v-otnoshenii-prigozhina-ob-organizacii-...
- baybal2 3y ago
  An unfortunate Russian passport holder, my parents were one of richest people in Russian Far East in the early nineties. Hackernewsers knows well I am extremely anti-Russian. The West massively misunderstands Russia, and how it works on the inside. If you watch CSIS, RAND, Aspen institute, you will see 10 talking heads each talking his own completely different story, and none of them tells more than a Russian highschooler can. Seeing Westerners instinctively reaching for "the best known source" tells why something like this came as a surprise in the first place, while this exact scenario been a watercooler talk for most Russians, both in Ukraine, and Russia itself. Why Western experts driving the conversation on Russia, China, etc are completely blind to things known to every highschooler? The reason is they are all having near zero personal experience outside politics, but Russia has no politics as such. None of them had that visceral back alley survival experience, which shape you for life.
  - mcphage 3y ago
    > Seeing Westerners instinctively reaching for "the best known source" tells why something like this came as a surprise in the first place, while this exact scenario been a watercooler talk for most Russians, both in Ukraine, and Russia itself. > Why Western experts driving the conversation on Russia, China, etc are completely blind to things known to every highschooler? I’m not sure I follow you here. You’re saying that Westerners don’t understand things even known to high schoolers in Russia. I believe you. But then you say it’s because we try and find the best source for our information, and that also seems true. But it also seems like you’re saying that that’s the wrong course of action? It reads like you’re telling us that our sources aren’t good enough, but also complaining that we’re trying to find good sources. At any rate, I don’t happen to know any Russian high schoolers, so I have no way of asking them directly what it is that they talk about at the watercooler. I’d ask you, but that would just be me instinctively reaching for another “best known source”.
goodbyesf 3y ago
[flagged]
uejfiweun 3y ago
Zerohedge, which is basically just a Russian propaganda source, is saying that the Wagner chief is already attempting to walk back his comments. Which kind of makes sense, as a moderately sized PMC has approximately zero chance against the might of a nation. So I'm not really sure that anything is gonna happen here. Hope I'm wrong, though.
- api 3y ago
  Related tangent: I predict that certain political movements in the US and Europe will implode if the Putin regime does. Would love to see if I'm right. Making popcorn.
  - pixl97 3y ago
    Eh whoever takes the reigns next knows the power of those misinformation groups and will keep them around, with some slight purging.
  - bobsoap 3y ago
    I wouldn't be so sure. Prigozhin founded the Internet Research Agency (Russian troll farm) for Putin back in 2013. He's the go-to guy for disinformation.
- ZeroGravitas 3y ago
  Their latest update seems to be following the same storyling as the other sources: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wagner-chief-declares-full-coup-against-russian-defense-ministry https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wagner-chief-declares...
  - uejfiweun 3y ago
    Wow. So this really is a big deal then. First the sub, now this, it's been a big news week.
WhereIsTheTruth 3y ago
What kind of reaction people expect from this hackernews post? Anything that goes against the dogma will get shut down? What's the veracity of this article to begin with? In the age of digital transformation, what are the chances we are reading fake news from the Ukrainian front? They attack each other? well, if they killed some russians and stole their missiles, it's easy to create confusion on the adversary camp, capture a general, train a model and spread fake news with deep fakes etc etc Until we get a proper source, we can only speculate Few days ago reports were saying that the counter offensive was a complete failure, so who to trust? where is the truth?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- tootie 3y ago
  Multiple reports in multiple major outlets are reporting that he is accusing Russia of attacking his troops. I think the coup part is speculative but the accusation is a heavy one and implies that he feels at war with Moscow already. Edit: Quick followup, NY Time has it top of the fold. Russia is accusing Wagner of fomenting a coup and the Kremlin is deploying armor to the streets of Moscow. This isn't definitely happening but it's a credible story.
  - WhereIsTheTruth 3y ago
    After reading the news today, looks like I was right to be cautious, suspicious and to not jump to the conclusion too hastily; don't you think? ;)
- yakshaving_jgt 3y ago
  > Few days ago reports were saying that the counter offensive was a complete failure, so who to trust? where is the truth? Why would leading figures on the russian side lie about their own failures? When war criminal and terrorist Igor Girkin admits that russia has no chance to win, why would he lie?
- alvarezbjm-hn 3y ago
2-718-281-828 3y ago
putin will be dead within 24 hours.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
asats 3y ago
Something is definitely happening, there's lot's of videos of military vehicles on the streets of multiple russian cities and the main tv channel just announced some kind of an emergency broadcast.
ChrisArchitect 3y ago
[dupe] maybe https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36451655 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36451655
_V_ 3y ago
Prigozhin, via AP Wagner channel, calls for Rosgvardia to join him, or "things will go badly": "The most promising politician appeals to the National Guard (Rosgvardia) with an offer that is better not refused. Obeying criminal orders and attempting to interfere with the planned campaign of Justice will end badly for employees who have made the wrong choice." https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672364086812606470 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672364086812606470
- AnimalMuppet 3y ago
  "Criminal"? "Justice"? Prigozhin is using those words? I'd expect he would want everyone to forget that such words existed.
  - iavael 3y ago
    That's poor translation. He is talking about justice as a virtue (справедливость), not as an institution (правосудие).
coolspot 3y ago
Actually, could be very well planned and well timed move by the CIA: Russian army is tied at the front, can’t leave it to protect the government. Wagners are very angry at RU MoD and above for all the betrayals and missteps (art. ammo supply, surrenders, etc.) RU public is tired of the war and disappointed in Putin (but can’t voice that because of laws that say you will go to jail for just showing UA flag).
psychphysic 3y ago
Nobody announces a coup in advance. What's going on? On theory is that if he's arrested and tried in Russia he's mostly ineligible for war crime trial in the future.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > Nobody announces a coup in advance Taking what we're seeing at face value, Prigozhin is credibly threatening to march on Moscow. He isn't announcing anything in advance, he's using public channels to sway leaders to his side.
  - 082349872349872 3y ago
    and the other side is busy closing down public channels: https://tass.ru/obschestvo/18103517 https://tass.ru/obschestvo/18103517 > VKontakte blocked Prigozhin's statement on the basis of the decision of the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation
Triangle9349 3y ago
latest news here: https://t-me.translate.goog/s/Ateobreaking?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp https://t-me.translate.goog/s/Ateobreaking?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr...
reducesuffering 3y ago
The Wagner attempted coup (marching on the Russian MoD) is real, but it won't result in serious regime change, only a weakening of Russian position in Ukraine. Prigozhin admits the reasons for invading Ukraine were bullshit from Russia: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672177488535977984 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672177488535977984 Sad to see how many people supported an invasion and slaughter of so many people because of what the Russian state says about things like NATO. Hope this is a wake up call. If you want to follow the unfolding events, Crowdstrike founder, https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch is a qualified and educated source (predicted invasion 3 months before)
nimos 3y ago
Maybe cover for a Russian withdrawal? Create some internal issue that gives troops a reason to retreat without losing face. Wishful thinking perhaps.
_V_ 3y ago
> оявилась информация, что несколько частей, в том числе 45 бригада, отказались выйти из казарм против Вагнера. Кстати, в ВДВ всегда симпатизировали Пригожину, - ВЧК-ОГПУ > information appeared that several units, including the 45th brigade, refused to leave the barracks against Wagner. By the way, in the Airborne Forces they always sympathized with Prigozhin, - VChK-OGPU https://twitter.com/protest_da/status/1672369669850669064 https://twitter.com/protest_da/status/1672369669850669064
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
mmh0000 3y ago
In times like this Fark[1] is a great resources for tracking all the latest happenings [1] https://www.fark.com/comments/12902150 https://www.fark.com/comments/12902150
- mmh0000 3y ago
  And also: https://www.fark.com/comments/12902024 https://www.fark.com/comments/12902024
_V_ 3y ago
A senior American intelligence official tells me for both Ukraine and U.S. intelligence, it’s a “watch and see if they destroy themselves sort of situation.” They said it was going to be a long night of watching how this develops. Said Wagner is preparing* to mobilize—it’s believed they want to head towards Moscow. Edited original tweet for better context. https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1672377846524772353 https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1672377846524772353
lolc 3y ago
Doesn't read like a good source. Citing the loose cannon does not make a civil war. But yea, Prigozhin has been hinting that he considers civil war an option when he commented on the retreat from Bakhmut: “we will leave on the 10th of May, and we will wait until the Russian people need us, which we believe is going to happen really soon if you look at how our leaders are acting.”[0] From my armchair, it doesn't look like a bunch of mercenaries could meaningfully operate within Russia. They'd need decisive support from branches of the regular army. So the question is whether he has alliances. As long as they haven't revealed themselves, this will stay cold. Or Prigozhin will die real quick. [0] https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-succession-ukraine-war/32425962.html https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-suc...
_V_ 3y ago
Prigozhin announced they have crossed the border and are entering Rostov https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1672380562697330692 https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1672380562697330692 Also: https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1672381234150887425 https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1672381234150887425 Also: https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3805 https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3805
dbsights 3y ago
My guess: its a tactic designed to embolden the enemy and keep them committed to a failing strategy. Bakhmut was a meat grinder, but as long as the hope of victory could be kept alive in the Ukrainian army, they would keep sending their troops to slaughter. So we got all of these videos about chaos & ammo running out on the Russian side. And the Ukrainians obligingly poured manpower into an almost-perfectly-surrounded killbox. Saw how that turned out. I'd bet its the same deal with the current offensive, which has been similarly ruinous for Ukraine.
- lostmsu 3y ago
  It does not make a lot of sense. If I were Ukrainian military, I'd stop fighting and just waited for the enemy to tear itself apart, only then advanced.
  - jemmyw 3y ago
    They'll probably want to keep the pressure on rather than letting the Russians get over it and regroup. The Ukrainians can't know the result of the infighting so keep going and hope the infighting improves their cause.
- everyone 3y ago
  Ukraine was defending in an urban area. They were trading casualties favourably with Russian the entire time.
  - dbsights 3y ago
    Yes, they were defending in an urban area, but I think this matters less than you might expect. Russia's strategy was to saturate the Ukrainians with artillery, and they undoubtedly have superiority in this area. This kind of warfare basically negates the advantages of urban defence. Sure, it took a long time to make progress, but by design it limits the casualties of the attacker. I'd wager that most Ukrainians that died there never even saw a Russian solider. Truthfully, no one really knows how many died (on either side), but Wagner stayed in the field vs 50-odd Ukr. brigades. How do you reconcile that with a favourable casualty ratio?
v8xi 3y ago
Just posting a few of my favorite accounts for following updates on the Russia Ukraine war: https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki https://twitter.com/wartranslated https://twitter.com/wartranslated https://twitter.com/Tendar https://twitter.com/Tendar https://twitter.com/Twiter__Trends https://twitter.com/Twiter__Trends
_V_ 3y ago
New audio statement by Prigozhin (00:03 BST), stating Wagner "crossed state borders in all areas" and is now entering Rostov, promising to "destroy anything standing in their way": "The current situation: today, we were dealt a missile strike. After this strike, helicopters did their work. Then, artillery. The orders were coming from the Head of General Staff to destroy PMC Wagner. After a meeting with the Minister of Defence Shoygu where they made this decision - to destroy the rebellious units, who are ready to defend the motherland, but not their asses. As of now, we’ve crossed the state borders in all areas. Border guards came towards us and hugged our fighters. Now, we’re entering Rostov. Units of the Ministry of Defence, in fact, the conscripts who were thrown to block our path, moved away. We do not fight with children. We do not kill children. Shoygu is killing children by throwing untrained soldiers, conscripts included, into the war. He set up 18-year-old lads against us. They’re like children and grandchildren to us. Therefore, these lads will live and return to their mothers. We only fight with professionals. But if someone stands in our path, we will destroy EVERYTHING in our way. We lend a hand to anyone. No need to spit in this hand. We are moving forward, going to the end. Regarding claims regarding the arrest: this brotherhood, this justice, this honour, this conscience is what we have. But when you make these claims, you haven’t got these feelings. These feelings are destroyed. Thus, you cannot understand anything but betrayal." Audio: https://t.co/eVLNEA708y https://t.co/eVLNEA708y https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672383249656496128 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672383249656496128
_V_ 3y ago
Prigozhin, audio statement at 00:31 BST, stating that Gerasimov "gave an order for planes to bomb moving Wagner columns". It is unclear if these columns exist in reality: "Just now, the Head of General staff gave the order to raise planes and open fire at columns moving through civilian cars, through trucks. He doesn’t care whom to kill. They’ve been killing own civilians for 1,5 years now instead of fighting with the enemy. I want to say thank you to the pilots who, as it just became known, refused to obey criminal orders." Audio: https://t.co/ASUwhevnMw https://t.co/ASUwhevnMw https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672387845749702658 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672387845749702658
lamontcg 3y ago
Might be the most important geopolitical development in 2023, with over 100 points and its still [flagged].
- everyone 3y ago
  Yeah why is that? Im curious, is HN moderated by FSB or something?
_V_ 3y ago
So far there are no confirmations (videos or photos) of Prigozhin's previous statements that Wagner mercenaries have allegedly entered Rostov-on-Don. Local media don't confirm that. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672394495424356352 https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16723944954243563...
rq1 3y ago
Even the US wouldn't allow it... Imagine this idiot with the nuclear button.
- it_citizen 3y ago
  What makes you think he is an idiot?
  - rq1 3y ago
    The Prince.
    - LeonB 3y ago
      As in… “having read Machiavelli’s The Prince, I am aware that a mercenary army is not reliable?” ?? That’s what keeps occurring to me.
      - rq1 3y ago
        As the general sent to butcher a region and then was executed for doing what he was actually asked for. His fate was obvious from he beginning but he went there with such impediment that's quite strange he's stil' breathing.
        LeonB 3y ago
        Ok I understand and I think I agree. My question is how this relates to the words “The Prince” ? Is that a reference to Machiavelli? Or Prince Myshkin from Dostoyevsky or some other Prince? A novel, a poem… I just want to know what in particular the words “the prince” refer to here?
        cbraz 3y ago
        Probably a reference to Erik Prince (the founder of the private military company Blackwater). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_Prince https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_Prince
chasd00 3y ago
not familiar enough to verify this but i guess Wagner is taking the Southern Military District right now? https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1672429121278705666?t=FuXL1J9ks_1pjy_TJso6qQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1672429121278705666?t=...
activiation 3y ago
[flagged]
- dang 3y ago
  https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36453675 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36453675
  - activiation 3y ago
    you are super human.... thanks for the reply
iopq 3y ago
Why is this flagged? It might be the most important thing to happen all year
- SenHeng 3y ago
  Large contingent of 'no politics, not my business' in here.
  - baybal2 3y ago
    [dead]
  - _V_ 3y ago
    That's kind of stupid - politics affect our lives whether we like it or not. Especially these kinds of events where Russia might collapse from within.
    - api 3y ago
      Yes but it’s part of how this site has avoided being sucked into the culture war vortex.
      - _V_ 3y ago
        Even though these events were provoked by the war, they are important even without that connection. Possibility of civil war / regime change in Russa will inevitably hit everyone in the world. Some will get hit more, some less. Some only economically. Nothing to do with a culture war vortex. Burying your head in sand is not necessarily the smartest option although I understand that it is the easiest one.
      - alphabettsy 3y ago
        It’s absolutely hasn’t avoided that though. There are stories about culture war topics almost daily and multiple on the weekends.
        3y ago
Vibgyor5 3y ago
I am in Russia currently. Not Russian but I speak fluent Russian and have acquaintances in affected territories. Update: 19:28 Moscow time. - Situation is normal in cities and oblasts: as in, there seem to be no panic but people are definitely reading the news. - Everyone support the government - although I find Russians to be highly political apathetic (which is one of the major roots of the problems in the country IME). The ones who'd soft corner for Wagner also seem to note that Prigozhin should've picked a better time for this. Wagner posters for recruitment are being removed. In all sense, it has fallen from grace. - Wagner definitely does not have a high proportion of supporters amongst civilians. Within the army's junior ranks (and in Rosgvardiya) there are people that are more sympathetic to it, hence, why they do not explicitly used force against them. Rumors here are that this is one of the reasons why Ahmat forces were sent to Rostov. - Wagner forces themselves seem to have strict instructions not to use show of force against esp. civilians in order to not alienate them. - I'd take Western-news with some salt as well because this is a good time to mix information-war as well. - Moscow is on high alert, people aren't suggested to make too many public movements, and Monday is declared holiday for most public institutions. Many dense places (malls etc.) have been evacuated. I believe this is to ensure that civilians are neither impacted nor used as hostages. - For best/live updates, use Telegram channels (in Russian) or Tass (in Russian, use your BS-sensor accordingly)
- 908B64B197 3y ago
  > I find Russians to be highly political apathetic That's a good survival strategy. You'll see them side with the winner as soon as it becomes obvious who that is.
  - Vibgyor5 3y ago
    Its not. It is indifference which leads to the very few - who can hold the power - to continue holding it unobstructed and play their narrative with propaganda because they themselves know that even if people realize this is BS, they'd still not do anything about it. There is a cumulative "corruption of will" - for the lack of better term - that comes with it. And when there is no will, those who can have their way, will continue to have it.

294 points by _V_ 3y ago

_V_ 3y ago

Also: Russia accuses Wagner chief of urging 'armed mutiny' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66005256 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66005256

rhn_mk1 3y ago

Cloudflarewall?

5e92cb50239222b 3y ago
Try the mirror. https://archive.is/jWcb8 https://archive.is/jWcb8

tibbydudeza 3y ago

FSB has been mobilized in Moscow and security plan "Fortress" has been enacted to safeguard govt buildings in Moscow. I am getting popcorn.

dlahoda 3y ago
prove?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- _V_ 3y ago
  Well either this is the best psyop I have seen in a long time or something is happening: https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1672359193863487491 https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1672359193863487491
  - chrisco255 3y ago
    This is just armored vehicles rolling down a road. No context, no way to validate timestamp, no nothing. Even if it was precautionary stationing of troops, as done when the National Guard is activated, it doesn't mean the country is undergoing a revolution. Sorry.
    - _V_ 3y ago
      Nothing stopping you searching Telegram *shrug emoji* I'm trying to add more info but it is (as one might expect) quite chaotic right now.
  - api 3y ago
    It's the same people who faked the moon landings and the Sandy Hook shooting. /jk Something is clearly happening, but it's hard to tell exactly what. Fog of war and all that.
    - _V_ 3y ago
      Of course - it is unfolding right now. We'll get a better picture later, but for now I'm posting what I can get (along with sources so everyone can follow up/make their mind).
irjustin 3y ago
Link me please!!!
tibbydudeza 3y ago
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en

5e92cb50239222b 3y ago

There has been a lot of talk, but no concrete actions yet. No marches anywhere, no clashes between regular armed forces and the PMC, nothing. Some armored vehicles were put on the streets of Moscow and Rostov (which is located near the border with Ukraine), but that's about it. https://t.me/svtvnews/31224 https://t.me/svtvnews/31224 https://t.me/svtvnews/31232 https://t.me/svtvnews/31232

int_19h 3y ago
Prigozhin claims that the army hit Wagner bases in Ukraine with rockets, although there doesn't seem to be any confirmation of this so far.
yakshaving_jgt 3y ago
This is all unfolding literally right now. It looks like a military base in Moscow is now on fire. Edit… Also reports of fighting between Wagner and russia's national guard on the Rostov-Moscow highway. Wagner are on the move towards Moscow.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > looks like a military base in Moscow is now on fire Source?
  - yakshaving_jgt 3y ago
    Videos are circulating on Telegram.
- lamontcg 3y ago
  Rostov is 1,000 km from Moscow.
  - yakshaving_jgt 3y ago
    And what?
  - 3y ago

tibbydudeza 3y ago

"The leftovers of Wagners on the outskirts of Bakhmut opened fire on the regular roads of the Russian Federation. Our assault brigades see everything, systematic strikes are now being carried out on the positions of the Russians. You would hear the radio broadcast of these ** now. The impression is that part of the Russian regular troops are killing their own, and it seems that part of the military is supporting Prigozhin. While it is not clear what is finally happening, it is a bloodbath" https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672329674729373696 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672329674729373696

_V_ 3y ago

«We're on our way to Moscow, and anyone who entered our centres will answer for it» - Prigozhin https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672358497067970561 https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16723584970679705...

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
Is this a serious attempt at a military coup? Wagner's command is competent. The recent border incursions show Russia is lightly fortified, possibly Moscow, too. The wild card would appear to be the FSB. Do they tend ultranationalist? Or will they be loyal to Shoigu?
- _V_ 3y ago
  Too soon to say for real - but something seems to be happening. There is quite a lot of noise from Russia.
- sidewndr46 3y ago
  My guess is that either the Ministry of Defense or Putin ordered a hit on Prigohzin. It either failed or he got wind of it. The best way to ensure his own safety at this point is a coup.
  - AnimalMuppet 3y ago
    The best way to insure his death is also a coup attempt. If he succeeds, he lives (maybe). If he fails, he definitely dies. He still may think that gives him better odds than not attempting the coup does, under current conditions...
    - _V_ 3y ago
      Well, they can't kill him twice...
    - BasedAnon 3y ago
      At some point the risk of dying between action and inaction becomes similar enough that the value of winning is worth it. Someone who has little to lose is more easily driven to action.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

Prigozhin gaining power, potentially even over Putin, would be horrible for Russians, but stabilizing for Europe. (See: North Korea.)

5e92cb50239222b 3y ago
You know the guy has been pushing for war economy, closed borders, full mobilization and total war? Stabilizing my ass — if he ever takes power, it's likely to become even worse for everyone involved.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > the guy has been pushing for war economy, closed borders, full mobilization and total war He's also saying the war was a mistake. Prigozhin's base is ultranationalist–that's what's propelling him now. If he succeeds in taking the reins of the state, his base and thus incentives shift. The new rhetoric may reflect him realizing he's closer to that than anyone realized.
bemusedthrow75 3y ago
He would stabilise nothing. You realise he's off his rocker, right? The stopped clock has just been momentarily right. There is no situation where it is a good idea that a mercenary army leader whose staff are criminals takes power over a nuclear-armed state.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > would stabilise nothing Do we really expect Putin to manage a peaceful transfer of power? Devil you know, and all that.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]

_V_ 3y ago

Wagner PMC has responded to the pleas of RU generals for them to not to listen to Prigozhin: > Все генералы, которые с трясущимися руками обращаются к музыкантам с призывами остановиться уже фактически подписали себе приговор. Трибунал обязательно будет. Суровикин еще ответит за сдачу Херсона. > (Google Translate) All the generals who, with trembling hands, appeal to the musicians to stop, have actually signed their own sentence. There will be a tribunal. Surovikin will still answer for the surrender of Kherson. https://t.me/apwagner/9116 https://t.me/apwagner/9116

fwungy 3y ago

This is absurd. It makes no sense. I'm calling psyop.

dzhiurgis 3y ago
Could be form of surrendering troops from Ukraine without loosing face or “excuse” for tactical nukes or dogwhistle for US spies to aid the revolution
_V_ 3y ago
Who knows, too soon. But Prigozhin did seemingly lose to Shoigu earlier when Putin agreed to have all the "external" soldiers to be under the ShoiguúMoD command. So this may very well be the final fight between the two.
valine 3y ago
It could be a psyop, but it's far from absurd. Tensions between Yevgeny Prigozhin and Putin have been high. Most notable were the public threats from Wagner to pull out of Bakhmut due to lack of supplies. If anyone has the potential to seize power away from Putin, it's Prigozhin. Prigozhin has an army, one which is vital to Putin's war effort. Do you really think Prigozhin wouldn't turn on Putin given the opportunity?
int_19h 3y ago
If this is absurd, why has it been predicted for several months now by the likes of Strelkov?
bawolff 3y ago
I wouldn't say none. If you're going to plan a coup, do it well the military is distracted.
- nurandal 3y ago
  true: but looking at whats being posted on telegram and twitter, it looks like the russian security services (which probably weren't affected by the russian army recruitment draft) still have a lot of people (and brand new shiny jeeps and afvs, despite the shortage of new vehicles in ukraine for them).

akomtu 3y ago

The horror of every tyrant: when one of his commanders realizes that he has more power than his boss.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> when one of his commanders realizes that he has more power than his boss When one of the commanders realizes they're physically between the army and the unguarded palace.
phkahler 3y ago
If you aim for the king you better not miss. If this is for real, someone is finished.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

Is there a deal Kyiv can strike with Putin in this moment?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
x3874 3y ago
[flagged]
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > Moscow striking a deal with the comedian The head of state who's besting them in a war? Yes, that guy.
- alvarezbjm-hn 3y ago
  Sounds better than sabblerattling with nuclear warheads. Ukraine is still receiving weapons. Agaisnt all odds, the west has recognized they had better at least keep the war in Ukraine, not allow Russia to extend their frontiers.
- yakshaving_jgt 3y ago
  The terrorist regime in russia is collapsing. Ideally, the terrorist state of russia will be completely formatted, with all those loyal to putin arrested or killed. This is the best prospect for peace on this planet. Are you not happy about this?
int_19h 3y ago
Why would they want to? If this does escalate enough, it would make more sense for them to redouble the efforts for their offensive - they still have plenty of reserves that haven't entered the fray yet. And then, if the plan to cut off Crimea succeeds, they could try to negotiate with Russia - on much stronger terms.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago

rdtsc 3y ago

Wagner leader Prigozhin is gambling and betting everything on red (or black?). The problem for the Russian government is that many ordinary pro-war Russians see Prigozhin as a hero. If they kill him, he'll become a martyr. For all I care both sides are war criminals and should answer for their atrocities in Ukraine. If they can kill each other without also killing civilians, don't think we should stand in their way too much.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> If they kill him, he'll become a martyr Prigozhin seems to be playing this savvily. Extremely savvily. He isn't directly threatening Putin. There is a face-saving change in which Shoigu et al are executed and Prigozhin and Putin split their cookies. Putin can frame it as discovering they lied to him, and possibly even re-set expectations for the war in Ukraine.
- api 3y ago
  What if the whole thing is about Putin setting up some lower level fall guys for a loss in Ukraine? Prigozhin maybe? Provoke him into doing something crazy, take him out, then claim he is responsible for failure on the front or even that he's a traitor and was working with Ukraine or something.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- ptero 3y ago
  Totally an armchair opinion, but I think Prigozhin is a toast and he knows it. He cannot fight (troops hated, plus ranks decimated in Bakhmut) and cannot hide (no one will take him). He may be just trying to go down with a bang. My 2c.
  - everyone 3y ago

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

Youden 3y ago

Better known source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-boss-says-moscows-war-ukraine-based-lies-2023-06-23/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-boss-...

082349872349872 3y ago
...and on the other side, even ТАСС has been reporting on it: https://tass.com/russia/1637443 https://tass.com/russia/1637443 Edit: note that the TASS coverage is far more up-to-date in russian than english. (protip: translate.yandex.com) Новость дополняется. https://tass.ru/delo-v-otnoshenii-prigozhina-ob-organizacii-vooruzhennogo-myatezha https://tass.ru/delo-v-otnoshenii-prigozhina-ob-organizacii-...
baybal2 3y ago
An unfortunate Russian passport holder, my parents were one of richest people in Russian Far East in the early nineties. Hackernewsers knows well I am extremely anti-Russian. The West massively misunderstands Russia, and how it works on the inside. If you watch CSIS, RAND, Aspen institute, you will see 10 talking heads each talking his own completely different story, and none of them tells more than a Russian highschooler can. Seeing Westerners instinctively reaching for "the best known source" tells why something like this came as a surprise in the first place, while this exact scenario been a watercooler talk for most Russians, both in Ukraine, and Russia itself. Why Western experts driving the conversation on Russia, China, etc are completely blind to things known to every highschooler? The reason is they are all having near zero personal experience outside politics, but Russia has no politics as such. None of them had that visceral back alley survival experience, which shape you for life.
- mcphage 3y ago
  > Seeing Westerners instinctively reaching for "the best known source" tells why something like this came as a surprise in the first place, while this exact scenario been a watercooler talk for most Russians, both in Ukraine, and Russia itself. > Why Western experts driving the conversation on Russia, China, etc are completely blind to things known to every highschooler? I’m not sure I follow you here. You’re saying that Westerners don’t understand things even known to high schoolers in Russia. I believe you. But then you say it’s because we try and find the best source for our information, and that also seems true. But it also seems like you’re saying that that’s the wrong course of action? It reads like you’re telling us that our sources aren’t good enough, but also complaining that we’re trying to find good sources. At any rate, I don’t happen to know any Russian high schoolers, so I have no way of asking them directly what it is that they talk about at the watercooler. I’d ask you, but that would just be me instinctively reaching for another “best known source”.

goodbyesf 3y ago

[flagged]

uejfiweun 3y ago

Zerohedge, which is basically just a Russian propaganda source, is saying that the Wagner chief is already attempting to walk back his comments. Which kind of makes sense, as a moderately sized PMC has approximately zero chance against the might of a nation. So I'm not really sure that anything is gonna happen here. Hope I'm wrong, though.

api 3y ago
Related tangent: I predict that certain political movements in the US and Europe will implode if the Putin regime does. Would love to see if I'm right. Making popcorn.
- pixl97 3y ago
  Eh whoever takes the reigns next knows the power of those misinformation groups and will keep them around, with some slight purging.
- bobsoap 3y ago
  I wouldn't be so sure. Prigozhin founded the Internet Research Agency (Russian troll farm) for Putin back in 2013. He's the go-to guy for disinformation.
ZeroGravitas 3y ago
Their latest update seems to be following the same storyling as the other sources: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wagner-chief-declares-full-coup-against-russian-defense-ministry https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wagner-chief-declares...
- uejfiweun 3y ago
  Wow. So this really is a big deal then. First the sub, now this, it's been a big news week.

WhereIsTheTruth 3y ago

What kind of reaction people expect from this hackernews post? Anything that goes against the dogma will get shut down? What's the veracity of this article to begin with? In the age of digital transformation, what are the chances we are reading fake news from the Ukrainian front? They attack each other? well, if they killed some russians and stole their missiles, it's easy to create confusion on the adversary camp, capture a general, train a model and spread fake news with deep fakes etc etc Until we get a proper source, we can only speculate Few days ago reports were saying that the counter offensive was a complete failure, so who to trust? where is the truth?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
tootie 3y ago
Multiple reports in multiple major outlets are reporting that he is accusing Russia of attacking his troops. I think the coup part is speculative but the accusation is a heavy one and implies that he feels at war with Moscow already. Edit: Quick followup, NY Time has it top of the fold. Russia is accusing Wagner of fomenting a coup and the Kremlin is deploying armor to the streets of Moscow. This isn't definitely happening but it's a credible story.
- WhereIsTheTruth 3y ago
  After reading the news today, looks like I was right to be cautious, suspicious and to not jump to the conclusion too hastily; don't you think? ;)
yakshaving_jgt 3y ago
> Few days ago reports were saying that the counter offensive was a complete failure, so who to trust? where is the truth? Why would leading figures on the russian side lie about their own failures? When war criminal and terrorist Igor Girkin admits that russia has no chance to win, why would he lie?
alvarezbjm-hn 3y ago

2-718-281-828 3y ago

putin will be dead within 24 hours.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]

asats 3y ago

Something is definitely happening, there's lot's of videos of military vehicles on the streets of multiple russian cities and the main tv channel just announced some kind of an emergency broadcast.

ChrisArchitect 3y ago

[dupe] maybe https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36451655 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36451655

_V_ 3y ago

Prigozhin, via AP Wagner channel, calls for Rosgvardia to join him, or "things will go badly": "The most promising politician appeals to the National Guard (Rosgvardia) with an offer that is better not refused. Obeying criminal orders and attempting to interfere with the planned campaign of Justice will end badly for employees who have made the wrong choice." https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672364086812606470 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672364086812606470

AnimalMuppet 3y ago
"Criminal"? "Justice"? Prigozhin is using those words? I'd expect he would want everyone to forget that such words existed.
- iavael 3y ago
  That's poor translation. He is talking about justice as a virtue (справедливость), not as an institution (правосудие).

coolspot 3y ago

Actually, could be very well planned and well timed move by the CIA: Russian army is tied at the front, can’t leave it to protect the government. Wagners are very angry at RU MoD and above for all the betrayals and missteps (art. ammo supply, surrenders, etc.) RU public is tired of the war and disappointed in Putin (but can’t voice that because of laws that say you will go to jail for just showing UA flag).

psychphysic 3y ago

Nobody announces a coup in advance. What's going on? On theory is that if he's arrested and tried in Russia he's mostly ineligible for war crime trial in the future.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> Nobody announces a coup in advance Taking what we're seeing at face value, Prigozhin is credibly threatening to march on Moscow. He isn't announcing anything in advance, he's using public channels to sway leaders to his side.
- 082349872349872 3y ago
  and the other side is busy closing down public channels: https://tass.ru/obschestvo/18103517 https://tass.ru/obschestvo/18103517 > VKontakte blocked Prigozhin's statement on the basis of the decision of the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation

Triangle9349 3y ago

latest news here: https://t-me.translate.goog/s/Ateobreaking?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp https://t-me.translate.goog/s/Ateobreaking?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr...

reducesuffering 3y ago

The Wagner attempted coup (marching on the Russian MoD) is real, but it won't result in serious regime change, only a weakening of Russian position in Ukraine. Prigozhin admits the reasons for invading Ukraine were bullshit from Russia: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672177488535977984 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672177488535977984 Sad to see how many people supported an invasion and slaughter of so many people because of what the Russian state says about things like NATO. Hope this is a wake up call. If you want to follow the unfolding events, Crowdstrike founder, https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch is a qualified and educated source (predicted invasion 3 months before)

nimos 3y ago

Maybe cover for a Russian withdrawal? Create some internal issue that gives troops a reason to retreat without losing face. Wishful thinking perhaps.

_V_ 3y ago

> оявилась информация, что несколько частей, в том числе 45 бригада, отказались выйти из казарм против Вагнера. Кстати, в ВДВ всегда симпатизировали Пригожину, - ВЧК-ОГПУ > information appeared that several units, including the 45th brigade, refused to leave the barracks against Wagner. By the way, in the Airborne Forces they always sympathized with Prigozhin, - VChK-OGPU https://twitter.com/protest_da/status/1672369669850669064 https://twitter.com/protest_da/status/1672369669850669064

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

mmh0000 3y ago

In times like this Fark[1] is a great resources for tracking all the latest happenings [1] https://www.fark.com/comments/12902150 https://www.fark.com/comments/12902150

mmh0000 3y ago
And also: https://www.fark.com/comments/12902024 https://www.fark.com/comments/12902024

_V_ 3y ago

A senior American intelligence official tells me for both Ukraine and U.S. intelligence, it’s a “watch and see if they destroy themselves sort of situation.” They said it was going to be a long night of watching how this develops. Said Wagner is preparing* to mobilize—it’s believed they want to head towards Moscow. Edited original tweet for better context. https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1672377846524772353 https://twitter.com/JimLaPorta/status/1672377846524772353

lolc 3y ago

Doesn't read like a good source. Citing the loose cannon does not make a civil war. But yea, Prigozhin has been hinting that he considers civil war an option when he commented on the retreat from Bakhmut: “we will leave on the 10th of May, and we will wait until the Russian people need us, which we believe is going to happen really soon if you look at how our leaders are acting.”[0] From my armchair, it doesn't look like a bunch of mercenaries could meaningfully operate within Russia. They'd need decisive support from branches of the regular army. So the question is whether he has alliances. As long as they haven't revealed themselves, this will stay cold. Or Prigozhin will die real quick. [0] https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-succession-ukraine-war/32425962.html https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-suc...

_V_ 3y ago

Prigozhin announced they have crossed the border and are entering Rostov https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1672380562697330692 https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1672380562697330692 Also: https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1672381234150887425 https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1672381234150887425 Also: https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3805 https://t.me/Prigozhin_hat/3805

dbsights 3y ago

My guess: its a tactic designed to embolden the enemy and keep them committed to a failing strategy. Bakhmut was a meat grinder, but as long as the hope of victory could be kept alive in the Ukrainian army, they would keep sending their troops to slaughter. So we got all of these videos about chaos & ammo running out on the Russian side. And the Ukrainians obligingly poured manpower into an almost-perfectly-surrounded killbox. Saw how that turned out. I'd bet its the same deal with the current offensive, which has been similarly ruinous for Ukraine.

lostmsu 3y ago
It does not make a lot of sense. If I were Ukrainian military, I'd stop fighting and just waited for the enemy to tear itself apart, only then advanced.
- jemmyw 3y ago
  They'll probably want to keep the pressure on rather than letting the Russians get over it and regroup. The Ukrainians can't know the result of the infighting so keep going and hope the infighting improves their cause.
everyone 3y ago
Ukraine was defending in an urban area. They were trading casualties favourably with Russian the entire time.
- dbsights 3y ago
  Yes, they were defending in an urban area, but I think this matters less than you might expect. Russia's strategy was to saturate the Ukrainians with artillery, and they undoubtedly have superiority in this area. This kind of warfare basically negates the advantages of urban defence. Sure, it took a long time to make progress, but by design it limits the casualties of the attacker. I'd wager that most Ukrainians that died there never even saw a Russian solider. Truthfully, no one really knows how many died (on either side), but Wagner stayed in the field vs 50-odd Ukr. brigades. How do you reconcile that with a favourable casualty ratio?

v8xi 3y ago

Just posting a few of my favorite accounts for following updates on the Russia Ukraine war: https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki https://twitter.com/wartranslated https://twitter.com/wartranslated https://twitter.com/Tendar https://twitter.com/Tendar https://twitter.com/Twiter__Trends https://twitter.com/Twiter__Trends

_V_ 3y ago

New audio statement by Prigozhin (00:03 BST), stating Wagner "crossed state borders in all areas" and is now entering Rostov, promising to "destroy anything standing in their way": "The current situation: today, we were dealt a missile strike. After this strike, helicopters did their work. Then, artillery. The orders were coming from the Head of General Staff to destroy PMC Wagner. After a meeting with the Minister of Defence Shoygu where they made this decision - to destroy the rebellious units, who are ready to defend the motherland, but not their asses. As of now, we’ve crossed the state borders in all areas. Border guards came towards us and hugged our fighters. Now, we’re entering Rostov. Units of the Ministry of Defence, in fact, the conscripts who were thrown to block our path, moved away. We do not fight with children. We do not kill children. Shoygu is killing children by throwing untrained soldiers, conscripts included, into the war. He set up 18-year-old lads against us. They’re like children and grandchildren to us. Therefore, these lads will live and return to their mothers. We only fight with professionals. But if someone stands in our path, we will destroy EVERYTHING in our way. We lend a hand to anyone. No need to spit in this hand. We are moving forward, going to the end. Regarding claims regarding the arrest: this brotherhood, this justice, this honour, this conscience is what we have. But when you make these claims, you haven’t got these feelings. These feelings are destroyed. Thus, you cannot understand anything but betrayal." Audio: https://t.co/eVLNEA708y https://t.co/eVLNEA708y https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672383249656496128 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672383249656496128

_V_ 3y ago

Prigozhin, audio statement at 00:31 BST, stating that Gerasimov "gave an order for planes to bomb moving Wagner columns". It is unclear if these columns exist in reality: "Just now, the Head of General staff gave the order to raise planes and open fire at columns moving through civilian cars, through trucks. He doesn’t care whom to kill. They’ve been killing own civilians for 1,5 years now instead of fighting with the enemy. I want to say thank you to the pilots who, as it just became known, refused to obey criminal orders." Audio: https://t.co/ASUwhevnMw https://t.co/ASUwhevnMw https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672387845749702658 https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672387845749702658

lamontcg 3y ago

Might be the most important geopolitical development in 2023, with over 100 points and its still [flagged].

everyone 3y ago
Yeah why is that? Im curious, is HN moderated by FSB or something?

_V_ 3y ago

So far there are no confirmations (videos or photos) of Prigozhin's previous statements that Wagner mercenaries have allegedly entered Rostov-on-Don. Local media don't confirm that. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672394495424356352 https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/16723944954243563...

rq1 3y ago

Even the US wouldn't allow it... Imagine this idiot with the nuclear button.

it_citizen 3y ago
What makes you think he is an idiot?
- rq1 3y ago
  The Prince.
  - LeonB 3y ago
    As in… “having read Machiavelli’s The Prince, I am aware that a mercenary army is not reliable?” ?? That’s what keeps occurring to me.
    - rq1 3y ago
      As the general sent to butcher a region and then was executed for doing what he was actually asked for. His fate was obvious from he beginning but he went there with such impediment that's quite strange he's stil' breathing.
      - LeonB 3y ago
        Ok I understand and I think I agree. My question is how this relates to the words “The Prince” ? Is that a reference to Machiavelli? Or Prince Myshkin from Dostoyevsky or some other Prince? A novel, a poem… I just want to know what in particular the words “the prince” refer to here?
        cbraz 3y ago
        Probably a reference to Erik Prince (the founder of the private military company Blackwater). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_Prince https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_Prince

chasd00 3y ago

not familiar enough to verify this but i guess Wagner is taking the Southern Military District right now? https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1672429121278705666?t=FuXL1J9ks_1pjy_TJso6qQ&s=19 https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1672429121278705666?t=...

activiation 3y ago

[flagged]

dang 3y ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36453675 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36453675
- activiation 3y ago
  you are super human.... thanks for the reply

iopq 3y ago

Why is this flagged? It might be the most important thing to happen all year

SenHeng 3y ago
Large contingent of 'no politics, not my business' in here.
- baybal2 3y ago
  [dead]
- _V_ 3y ago
  That's kind of stupid - politics affect our lives whether we like it or not. Especially these kinds of events where Russia might collapse from within.
  - api 3y ago
    Yes but it’s part of how this site has avoided being sucked into the culture war vortex.
    - _V_ 3y ago
      Even though these events were provoked by the war, they are important even without that connection. Possibility of civil war / regime change in Russa will inevitably hit everyone in the world. Some will get hit more, some less. Some only economically. Nothing to do with a culture war vortex. Burying your head in sand is not necessarily the smartest option although I understand that it is the easiest one.
    - alphabettsy 3y ago
      It’s absolutely hasn’t avoided that though. There are stories about culture war topics almost daily and multiple on the weekends.
      - 3y ago

Vibgyor5 3y ago

I am in Russia currently. Not Russian but I speak fluent Russian and have acquaintances in affected territories. Update: 19:28 Moscow time. - Situation is normal in cities and oblasts: as in, there seem to be no panic but people are definitely reading the news. - Everyone support the government - although I find Russians to be highly political apathetic (which is one of the major roots of the problems in the country IME). The ones who'd soft corner for Wagner also seem to note that Prigozhin should've picked a better time for this. Wagner posters for recruitment are being removed. In all sense, it has fallen from grace. - Wagner definitely does not have a high proportion of supporters amongst civilians. Within the army's junior ranks (and in Rosgvardiya) there are people that are more sympathetic to it, hence, why they do not explicitly used force against them. Rumors here are that this is one of the reasons why Ahmat forces were sent to Rostov. - Wagner forces themselves seem to have strict instructions not to use show of force against esp. civilians in order to not alienate them. - I'd take Western-news with some salt as well because this is a good time to mix information-war as well. - Moscow is on high alert, people aren't suggested to make too many public movements, and Monday is declared holiday for most public institutions. Many dense places (malls etc.) have been evacuated. I believe this is to ensure that civilians are neither impacted nor used as hostages. - For best/live updates, use Telegram channels (in Russian) or Tass (in Russian, use your BS-sensor accordingly)

908B64B197 3y ago
> I find Russians to be highly political apathetic That's a good survival strategy. You'll see them side with the winner as soon as it becomes obvious who that is.
- Vibgyor5 3y ago
  Its not. It is indifference which leads to the very few - who can hold the power - to continue holding it unobstructed and play their narrative with propaganda because they themselves know that even if people realize this is BS, they'd still not do anything about it. There is a cumulative "corruption of will" - for the lack of better term - that comes with it. And when there is no will, those who can have their way, will continue to have it.