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The main problem I see with developing for VisionOS is the lack of reach. I expect that after the initial novelty the user base will be reduced further. The cl

The main problem I see with developing for VisionOS is the lack of reach. I expect that after the initial novelty the user base will be reduced further. The closed development ecosystem of Apple is alluring because it offers access to its iOS devices. But what makes it worth the effort to learn a new SDK, or even buy a MacOs device to develop for it, for just a few thousands of devices?

pesfandiar 3y ago
The user base may be small but they'll be unusually wealthy.
- robwwilliams 3y ago
  At some reputational risk—- Is the Vision Pro actually that expensive at $3500? A high/end LG OLED G3 77 inch TV @ $4,300 A Dell XPS laptop @ $4,000 A 2005 Honda Civic with 225,000 miles @ $3800 NBA season tickets mid-“club” level seats @ $4300 (does not include parking, dinner, transportation) A Barcalounger power reclining loveseat @ $3120 An 11 x 18.5 ft outdoor storage shed made out of plastic and genuine steel frame @ $5274 You might need that Honda if you are barely scrapping by, but if you are like many HN readers then you know damn well that most of what you really needed was taken care of a long time ago. Disposable income is disposable how you see fit. I see fit to buy a Vision Pro after a short test-drive. And I expect to be amazed.
  - readyplayernull 3y ago
    One word: 2-hours-battery
    - andsoitis 3y ago
      Why do you think 2 hours battery life for this form factor is a debilitating constraint?
      - readyplayernull 3y ago
        It won't be a casual device that you want to put on/off to check the news while saving battery, so it's not a contender for the smartphone. Two hours is not enough for daily work, so it won't replace the computer. Meaning this is a routine device that you use once or twice per day then forget about it.
        FractalHQ 3y ago
        I use my laptop everyday and leave it connected to power. Battery power is nice but rarely used.
        readyplayernull 3y ago
        But we don't walk around with the laptop while working, headsets need to be wireless.
    - creativenolo 3y ago
      Can’t you plug in it? My Windows laptop gives me about 45 mins tops. My Quest is never charged when I go to use it. It only gets charged when I use it.
  - Turskarama 3y ago
    About half of the items you posted are not really comparable for a lot of reasons: A high/end LG OLED G3 77 inch TV @ $4,300: Buy one of them to watch shows with your entire family. Want do do that with the Vision? You're either taking turns or forking out $14k for 4 of them. A Dell XPS laptop @ $4,000: Can be used for many more things than the vision pro seems to be capable of. This is a work device, if you bought the vision pro could you _get rid of_ your work PC or would you need to have it anyway? A 2005 Honda Civic with 225,000 miles @ $3800: I challenge you to trade in your car for a VR headset. Go on, tell us how much better your life is afterwards. NBA season tickets mid-“club” level seats @ $4300 (does not include parking, dinner, transportation) A Barcalounger power reclining loveseat @ $3120 These two are actually comparable in that they're ultimately unnecessary luxury items. An 11 x 18.5 ft outdoor storage shed made out of plastic and genuine steel frame @ $5274: I'll just keep my lawnmower inside next to the shelf I keep my Vision Pro on. These comparisons are ridiculous, I notice you didn't bother mentioning how cheap the Vision Pro is next to a house?
- pavlov 3y ago
  When the iPhone App Store launched there was an app called “I Am Rich” which was a picture of a ruby that cost $999. It sold many copies. Sadly I bet Apple won’t allow it this time around.
  - zakki 3y ago
    Maybe they’ll allow it if it is an immersion app. *I’m thinking of a comic that picturing Donald Duck’s uncle swimming in a pool of gold coins
  - dag11 3y ago
    > many copies Specifically 8 copies -- which I absolutely agree counts as "many copies" for what it was!
    - frereubu 3y ago
      Two of which were refunded... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Rich#Purchases https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Rich#Purchases
m3kw9 3y ago
You mean 10 million devices that’s the estimate Apple puts. This isn’t Play date or go fund me project
- makeitdouble 3y ago
  Apple's marketing department telling us they'll be selling a lot if of little help to be honest.
  - m3kw9 3y ago
    Lmao, and your estimate is gonna.. hurt it? I think they sell At least 5 mil. 7 or less is a 1st gen failure but they will have a 2nd gen that should fix the issues. AR is the future
  - andsoitis 3y ago
    > Apple's marketing department telling us they'll be selling a lot if of little help to be honest. Since it requires manufacturing scale (these things aren't going to be hand-built by a blacksmith in Germany) I would bet it isn't merely marketing smoke & mirrors.
    - makeitdouble 3y ago
      Rumors set the numbers at less than 200,000 per quarter, and that's the maker running full capacity, which at this point is pretty optimistic. https://www.thelec.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=4559 https://www.thelec.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=4559
code_runner 3y ago
I’m personally really torn on this. I don’t think the user base will reduce though… especially if people spent that sort of money.
- XorNot 3y ago
  If you can afford it, you can also afford to let it sit on the shelf gathering dust though. Which is what my Vive does these days.
TexanFeller 3y ago
Apple customers are one of the few consumer segments that don't mind paying for software. Apple captures a huge chunk of app revenue, massively outsized compared to their user base and far more than Android. One of the big reasons I don't try Android anymore is the last time I did so many of the apps were adware with no option to buy an ad-free version - I guess they don't bother because Android customers statistically won't pay.
filoleg 3y ago
> But what makes it worth the effort to learn a new SDK, or even buy a MacOs device to develop for it, for just a few thousands of devices? It is the same type of a bet when deciding to start a tire company or a car mechanic shop shortly after the first cars ever were introduced on the roads. You don't bet on the exisitng base, you bet on that base expanding extremely wildly, and you want to secure your position early. Also, I fully expect to be positively surprised by the sales of VisionPro. Keep in mind, we live in a world where one of the fairly popular flagship android phones (Galaxy Fold) sells retail for close to $2k. And it is still fundamentally a smartphone, it just folds and has a couple nice features due to it that others don't. But none of it is practically groundbreaking. I would be honestly even more surprised, if Apple wouldn't manage to bring a sub-$2k version of their AR device in the following few years.
- Turskarama 3y ago
  An interesting comparison, given how few people actually buy the fold despite the fact that it fully replaces any other phone you might have. If the Vision Pro replaces the phone in your pocket then maybe it's worth the price. Have fun putting it on in the coffee shop to take a call.
- ramesh31 3y ago
  >It is the same type of a bet when deciding to start a tire company or a car mechanic shop shortly after the first cars ever were introduced on the roads. You don't bet on the exisitng base, you bet on that base expanding extremely wildly, and you want to secure your position early. A lot of people (and billions of VC) made that bet in 2016 with the first wave of headsets. It didn't pan out, and they got burned (myself included). Here's hoping Apple is in this for the long haul, as they are basically the last hope for consumer VR reaching mainstream adoption.
  - rafark 3y ago
    This is Apple though. It is very likely that this will be a successful product. How many windows mobile/Symbian devs were burned before the iPhone came out? If you can, you should totally give it a shot.
grouchomarx 3y ago
They said the same thing verbatim about iOS
- makeitdouble 3y ago
  Would you apply the same logic to tvOS as well ?
  - andsoitis 3y ago
    Apple TVs running tvOS don't present a meaningfully better product offering than either Amazon FireSticks or Google Chromecasts, both of which sell at roughly an order of magnitude cheaper. Moreover, TV devices are neither positioned nor optimized for general computing.
    - makeitdouble 3y ago
      The Vision Pro sells at an order of magnitude more expensive than most AR/VR devices and we don't know yet if the product will be meaningfully better than the offering in 2024 when it's supposed to be released (a full year is a pretty long time in the computing field, IMHO) VR devices are also not optimized for general computing (as a sign of it, the Vision Pro won't natively support mac apps either)
ramesh31 3y ago
>But what makes it worth the effort to learn a new SDK, or even buy a MacOs device to develop for it, for just a few thousands of devices? This is a new official platform from Apple, not some random Google experiment. They don't do something like that willy nilly. This will be supported for decades to come now, and be the basis for who knows how many products. It's about getting in at the ground floor, a la iOS circa 2007.
- thyselius 3y ago
  I hope you're right. I've had a US top 10 grossing game (Bowling) on Apple TV for years and the income it's not enough to pay one salary. We thought it could be a great gaming platform for people without PS/Xbox, but unfortunately this did not happen. Apple TV is probably great for Netflix etc though.
- pavlov 3y ago
  On the other hand you could also have got in at the ground floor for tvOS or watchOS, and probably don’t have much to show for it. Not all Apple platforms are enormously successful for third parties.
  - imwillofficial 3y ago
    Those were both ancillary platforms meant to augment their main platform, computing. This is different, this is a potential replacement for their core products.
    - makeitdouble 3y ago
      The iPhone entered a market that was already huge and relatively mature, to further expand it in value. AR/VR is far from that. I hope Apple's entry boosts it a lot further, but comparing it to the iPhone feels like there's only disappointment in waiting, even if it fairly succeeds like the Watch does for instance.
    - spicybright 3y ago
      I'm not getting your logic. AppleTV was supposed to be a new thing with people developing entertainment apps and games that fit with a TV, not for general computing. The watch added to the iPhone and had unique apps to take advantage of the sensors. Neither of these were tied heavily to a macbook or other general purpose device. Unless you mean computing as in anything digital that runs code. Which I wouldn't really call a platform. VisionOS feels closer to an AppleTV. New hardware with a different paradigm that needs a unique API and new apps built for it. That said it does seem more like a supplemental device to your macbook + iphone. I doubt many are going to buy it with the intention of it being their main means of computing. Maybe define what main platform of computing and core product mean if you could?
sandoze 3y ago
This is a great question that will likely be subsidized by their development community. The smart move here is making the SDK available, hopefully hardware for development in the near future, and (most importantly) a market place available on day one for consumers. We can never predict the future and can safely assume this will never have the reach of their phones, tablets, or computer market. But it is tempting to play the App Store lottery before the clones roll in!

pesfandiar 3y ago

The user base may be small but they'll be unusually wealthy.

robwwilliams 3y ago
At some reputational risk—- Is the Vision Pro actually that expensive at $3500? A high/end LG OLED G3 77 inch TV @ $4,300 A Dell XPS laptop @ $4,000 A 2005 Honda Civic with 225,000 miles @ $3800 NBA season tickets mid-“club” level seats @ $4300 (does not include parking, dinner, transportation) A Barcalounger power reclining loveseat @ $3120 An 11 x 18.5 ft outdoor storage shed made out of plastic and genuine steel frame @ $5274 You might need that Honda if you are barely scrapping by, but if you are like many HN readers then you know damn well that most of what you really needed was taken care of a long time ago. Disposable income is disposable how you see fit. I see fit to buy a Vision Pro after a short test-drive. And I expect to be amazed.
- readyplayernull 3y ago
  One word: 2-hours-battery
  - andsoitis 3y ago
    Why do you think 2 hours battery life for this form factor is a debilitating constraint?
    - readyplayernull 3y ago
      It won't be a casual device that you want to put on/off to check the news while saving battery, so it's not a contender for the smartphone. Two hours is not enough for daily work, so it won't replace the computer. Meaning this is a routine device that you use once or twice per day then forget about it.
      - FractalHQ 3y ago
        I use my laptop everyday and leave it connected to power. Battery power is nice but rarely used.
        readyplayernull 3y ago
        But we don't walk around with the laptop while working, headsets need to be wireless.
  - creativenolo 3y ago
    Can’t you plug in it? My Windows laptop gives me about 45 mins tops. My Quest is never charged when I go to use it. It only gets charged when I use it.
- Turskarama 3y ago
  About half of the items you posted are not really comparable for a lot of reasons: A high/end LG OLED G3 77 inch TV @ $4,300: Buy one of them to watch shows with your entire family. Want do do that with the Vision? You're either taking turns or forking out $14k for 4 of them. A Dell XPS laptop @ $4,000: Can be used for many more things than the vision pro seems to be capable of. This is a work device, if you bought the vision pro could you _get rid of_ your work PC or would you need to have it anyway? A 2005 Honda Civic with 225,000 miles @ $3800: I challenge you to trade in your car for a VR headset. Go on, tell us how much better your life is afterwards. NBA season tickets mid-“club” level seats @ $4300 (does not include parking, dinner, transportation) A Barcalounger power reclining loveseat @ $3120 These two are actually comparable in that they're ultimately unnecessary luxury items. An 11 x 18.5 ft outdoor storage shed made out of plastic and genuine steel frame @ $5274: I'll just keep my lawnmower inside next to the shelf I keep my Vision Pro on. These comparisons are ridiculous, I notice you didn't bother mentioning how cheap the Vision Pro is next to a house?
pavlov 3y ago
When the iPhone App Store launched there was an app called “I Am Rich” which was a picture of a ruby that cost $999. It sold many copies. Sadly I bet Apple won’t allow it this time around.
- zakki 3y ago
  Maybe they’ll allow it if it is an immersion app. *I’m thinking of a comic that picturing Donald Duck’s uncle swimming in a pool of gold coins
- dag11 3y ago
  > many copies Specifically 8 copies -- which I absolutely agree counts as "many copies" for what it was!
  - frereubu 3y ago
    Two of which were refunded... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Rich#Purchases https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Rich#Purchases

m3kw9 3y ago

You mean 10 million devices that’s the estimate Apple puts. This isn’t Play date or go fund me project

makeitdouble 3y ago
Apple's marketing department telling us they'll be selling a lot if of little help to be honest.
- m3kw9 3y ago
  Lmao, and your estimate is gonna.. hurt it? I think they sell At least 5 mil. 7 or less is a 1st gen failure but they will have a 2nd gen that should fix the issues. AR is the future
- andsoitis 3y ago
  > Apple's marketing department telling us they'll be selling a lot if of little help to be honest. Since it requires manufacturing scale (these things aren't going to be hand-built by a blacksmith in Germany) I would bet it isn't merely marketing smoke & mirrors.
  - makeitdouble 3y ago
    Rumors set the numbers at less than 200,000 per quarter, and that's the maker running full capacity, which at this point is pretty optimistic. https://www.thelec.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=4559 https://www.thelec.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=4559

code_runner 3y ago

I’m personally really torn on this. I don’t think the user base will reduce though… especially if people spent that sort of money.

XorNot 3y ago
If you can afford it, you can also afford to let it sit on the shelf gathering dust though. Which is what my Vive does these days.

TexanFeller 3y ago

Apple customers are one of the few consumer segments that don't mind paying for software. Apple captures a huge chunk of app revenue, massively outsized compared to their user base and far more than Android. One of the big reasons I don't try Android anymore is the last time I did so many of the apps were adware with no option to buy an ad-free version - I guess they don't bother because Android customers statistically won't pay.

filoleg 3y ago

> But what makes it worth the effort to learn a new SDK, or even buy a MacOs device to develop for it, for just a few thousands of devices? It is the same type of a bet when deciding to start a tire company or a car mechanic shop shortly after the first cars ever were introduced on the roads. You don't bet on the exisitng base, you bet on that base expanding extremely wildly, and you want to secure your position early. Also, I fully expect to be positively surprised by the sales of VisionPro. Keep in mind, we live in a world where one of the fairly popular flagship android phones (Galaxy Fold) sells retail for close to $2k. And it is still fundamentally a smartphone, it just folds and has a couple nice features due to it that others don't. But none of it is practically groundbreaking. I would be honestly even more surprised, if Apple wouldn't manage to bring a sub-$2k version of their AR device in the following few years.

Turskarama 3y ago
An interesting comparison, given how few people actually buy the fold despite the fact that it fully replaces any other phone you might have. If the Vision Pro replaces the phone in your pocket then maybe it's worth the price. Have fun putting it on in the coffee shop to take a call.
ramesh31 3y ago
>It is the same type of a bet when deciding to start a tire company or a car mechanic shop shortly after the first cars ever were introduced on the roads. You don't bet on the exisitng base, you bet on that base expanding extremely wildly, and you want to secure your position early. A lot of people (and billions of VC) made that bet in 2016 with the first wave of headsets. It didn't pan out, and they got burned (myself included). Here's hoping Apple is in this for the long haul, as they are basically the last hope for consumer VR reaching mainstream adoption.
- rafark 3y ago
  This is Apple though. It is very likely that this will be a successful product. How many windows mobile/Symbian devs were burned before the iPhone came out? If you can, you should totally give it a shot.

grouchomarx 3y ago

They said the same thing verbatim about iOS

makeitdouble 3y ago
Would you apply the same logic to tvOS as well ?
- andsoitis 3y ago
  Apple TVs running tvOS don't present a meaningfully better product offering than either Amazon FireSticks or Google Chromecasts, both of which sell at roughly an order of magnitude cheaper. Moreover, TV devices are neither positioned nor optimized for general computing.
  - makeitdouble 3y ago
    The Vision Pro sells at an order of magnitude more expensive than most AR/VR devices and we don't know yet if the product will be meaningfully better than the offering in 2024 when it's supposed to be released (a full year is a pretty long time in the computing field, IMHO) VR devices are also not optimized for general computing (as a sign of it, the Vision Pro won't natively support mac apps either)

ramesh31 3y ago

>But what makes it worth the effort to learn a new SDK, or even buy a MacOs device to develop for it, for just a few thousands of devices? This is a new official platform from Apple, not some random Google experiment. They don't do something like that willy nilly. This will be supported for decades to come now, and be the basis for who knows how many products. It's about getting in at the ground floor, a la iOS circa 2007.

thyselius 3y ago
I hope you're right. I've had a US top 10 grossing game (Bowling) on Apple TV for years and the income it's not enough to pay one salary. We thought it could be a great gaming platform for people without PS/Xbox, but unfortunately this did not happen. Apple TV is probably great for Netflix etc though.
pavlov 3y ago
On the other hand you could also have got in at the ground floor for tvOS or watchOS, and probably don’t have much to show for it. Not all Apple platforms are enormously successful for third parties.
- imwillofficial 3y ago
  Those were both ancillary platforms meant to augment their main platform, computing. This is different, this is a potential replacement for their core products.
  - makeitdouble 3y ago
    The iPhone entered a market that was already huge and relatively mature, to further expand it in value. AR/VR is far from that. I hope Apple's entry boosts it a lot further, but comparing it to the iPhone feels like there's only disappointment in waiting, even if it fairly succeeds like the Watch does for instance.
  - spicybright 3y ago
    I'm not getting your logic. AppleTV was supposed to be a new thing with people developing entertainment apps and games that fit with a TV, not for general computing. The watch added to the iPhone and had unique apps to take advantage of the sensors. Neither of these were tied heavily to a macbook or other general purpose device. Unless you mean computing as in anything digital that runs code. Which I wouldn't really call a platform. VisionOS feels closer to an AppleTV. New hardware with a different paradigm that needs a unique API and new apps built for it. That said it does seem more like a supplemental device to your macbook + iphone. I doubt many are going to buy it with the intention of it being their main means of computing. Maybe define what main platform of computing and core product mean if you could?

sandoze 3y ago

This is a great question that will likely be subsidized by their development community. The smart move here is making the SDK available, hopefully hardware for development in the near future, and (most importantly) a market place available on day one for consumers. We can never predict the future and can safely assume this will never have the reach of their phones, tablets, or computer market. But it is tempting to play the App Store lottery before the clones roll in!