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Keep in mind it was extremely common on HN to proclaim Tesla was going to go bankrupt, that the Model S would never be manufactured at any scale, that the Model

Keep in mind it was extremely common on HN to proclaim Tesla was going to go bankrupt, that the Model S would never be manufactured at any scale, that the Model 3 would fail and would also never be manufactured at great scale. Sure Tesla has plenty of flaws and always have, and yet they remain ahead of the competition in what's going to be a multi-trillion dollar market (EVs) segment. Tesla's primary business problem is that they only have one killer product, the Model 3 (meaning they're too easy to cripple if sales fall out from under that one thing). They massively screwed up on the truck, when they should have just made a normal EV truck with some Tesla touches (Elon's ego on Cybertruck cost them hundreds of billions of dollars in sales over the next decade; it will go down as one of the dumbest business mistakes in recorded history). The truck should have been their key diversification, especially in the huge US market for trucks. The truck segment should have been mainstream and borderline boring, yielding tens of billions of dollars in annual global sales. Instead it's going to be a mocked niche product that trails off rapidly in sales after the initial splash (assuming they actually bring the Cybertruck to market). But if Tesla knew what they were doing, they would have bought a large chunk of Ford while the valuations were at peak mismatch (or all of it, via their hyper overvalued stock; de facto bribe the Ford family with a huge number to take the acquisition offer), electrified Ford's truck lineup in a long-term partnership, and yielded epic scale profit from it for decades to come.

jandrese 3y ago
The Model Y seems to be their real killer product. The Model 3 is a solid #2 for the business.
panick21_ 3y ago
> Tesla's primary business problem is that they only have one killer product, the Model 3 Their killer product is the Model Y. > meaning they're too easy to cripple if sales fall out from under that one thing Common car platforms like Civic or F150 stay pretty can stay pretty consistant for decades. And Tesla is actively working on other things. Also remember, they make money from car service, that will increase over the years. They also do grid storage both large and small and that business is already big and growing fast. They have other products already developed, like the Semi. And are currently building a factory for a 'Model 2' in Mexico. > They massively screwed up on the truck I would disagree. People now just assert that Cybertruck is bad. But the reason they went with that are still valid and it still has a lot of preorders and a lot of interest. In the long run that architecture could save them lots of money and be very profitable. > Elon's ego on Cybertruck cost them hundreds of billions of dollars in sales That's just an opinion. And if the really need to they could just design a normal truck and put it on the Cybertruck platform. They would cost a few billion but it wouldn't be that bad. > it will go down as one of the dumbest business mistakes in recorded history Or it will go down as one of the best. You clearly don't like the vehicle, but its numbers in terms of interest, people searching for it, preorders and so on are very good. Remember when nobody was gone follow threw on their Model 3 preorders? > But if Tesla knew what they were doing Growing 50% over almost 20 decades and being one of the most profitable car companies in the world while still growing fast for the next couple years but they are apparently idiots. > they would have bought a large chunk of Ford while the valuations were at peak mismatch That's a terrible idea for so many reason. That like Compaq buying DEC. > electrified Ford's truck lineup in a long-term partnership, and yielded epic scale profit from it for decades to come. They can have epic sales profit without Ford. They can make something called the E150 and make it look like the F150 and sell just as well without taking on all the legacy. I remember when everybody said 'Tesla should just let a contract manufacture build their cars' and that just as bad an idea.

jandrese 3y ago

The Model Y seems to be their real killer product. The Model 3 is a solid #2 for the business.

panick21_ 3y ago

> Tesla's primary business problem is that they only have one killer product, the Model 3 Their killer product is the Model Y. > meaning they're too easy to cripple if sales fall out from under that one thing Common car platforms like Civic or F150 stay pretty can stay pretty consistant for decades. And Tesla is actively working on other things. Also remember, they make money from car service, that will increase over the years. They also do grid storage both large and small and that business is already big and growing fast. They have other products already developed, like the Semi. And are currently building a factory for a 'Model 2' in Mexico. > They massively screwed up on the truck I would disagree. People now just assert that Cybertruck is bad. But the reason they went with that are still valid and it still has a lot of preorders and a lot of interest. In the long run that architecture could save them lots of money and be very profitable. > Elon's ego on Cybertruck cost them hundreds of billions of dollars in sales That's just an opinion. And if the really need to they could just design a normal truck and put it on the Cybertruck platform. They would cost a few billion but it wouldn't be that bad. > it will go down as one of the dumbest business mistakes in recorded history Or it will go down as one of the best. You clearly don't like the vehicle, but its numbers in terms of interest, people searching for it, preorders and so on are very good. Remember when nobody was gone follow threw on their Model 3 preorders? > But if Tesla knew what they were doing Growing 50% over almost 20 decades and being one of the most profitable car companies in the world while still growing fast for the next couple years but they are apparently idiots. > they would have bought a large chunk of Ford while the valuations were at peak mismatch That's a terrible idea for so many reason. That like Compaq buying DEC. > electrified Ford's truck lineup in a long-term partnership, and yielded epic scale profit from it for decades to come. They can have epic sales profit without Ford. They can make something called the E150 and make it look like the F150 and sell just as well without taking on all the legacy. I remember when everybody said 'Tesla should just let a contract manufacture build their cars' and that just as bad an idea.