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50% of small businesses fail within the first five years, so lovely anecdotes and all, but textbook survivorship bias.
by bugglebeetle 3y ago
50% of small businesses fail within the first five years, so lovely anecdotes and all, but textbook survivorship bias.
- HDThoreaun 3y agoThat’s not a new phenomenon. Life has always been hard, the narrative that it’s gotten harder is much more of a survivorship bias.
- bugglebeetle 3y agoSorry, but statistics don’t care about your platitudes.
- HDThoreaun 3y agoWhat statistics? All the stats I've seen are that there has never been less poverty in the world.
- winphone1974 3y agoMany of the failures in the west are far above what global statistics define as poverty, so this doesn't make much sense
- HDThoreaun 3y agoDo you have any statistics saying that the west is poorer than it used to be?
- brnaftr361 3y agoCan you transmute qualitative data into quantitative data and reliably measure it?
- bugglebeetle 3y agoBlatant goalpost shifting. Conversation was about how representative the anecdotes were to the documented reality of the rate of small business failures. Now, you’re discussing global poverty. But even if we go with your scrambling goalposts, small business start rates have declined markedly over the past 50 years at the noted high rate of failure: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56945 https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56945 So yes, all signs point to it actually being more difficult for small businesses to succeed.
- HDThoreaun 3y agoWhat was the failure rate of small businesses in the past? I think it’s higher than 50%, looking forward to being proven wrong.
- bugglebeetle 3y agoSecondary references to the SBA say they’ve been consistent since the 90s.
- HDThoreaun 3y agoThanks for the numbers. I do always enjoy learning something new
- andrekandre 3y ago> All the stats I've seen are that there has never been less poverty in the world. i wonder what happens to those stats if you take china out of that picture? do things look just as good?
- sethammons 3y agoSpend five minutes and watch this. Amazing presentation my Hans Rausling, economist, on rising global property. https://youtu.be/jbkSRLYSojo https://youtu.be/jbkSRLYSojo
- cableshaft 3y agoThe very next video Youtube recommended did a great job of critiquing that video, in my opinion, digging deeper into the statistics and showing how the 1% are skewing those statistics significantly and hiding declines for poor people, as well as other stats such as mental illness, things are getting much worse, especially in richer countries, and those stats are being ignored by people trying to push that the world is only getting better and better over time. https://youtu.be/OoIcsj9ysvs https://youtu.be/OoIcsj9ysvs
- sethammons 3y agoThank you for sharing! This is a very good counterpart video and well worth the watch