7 ms·

Those two data points are extremely anecdotal and have survivorship bias. According to data I can find online, in 2021 while 549 breweries opened, 319 closed.

Those two data points are extremely anecdotal and have survivorship bias. According to data I can find online, in 2021 while 549 breweries opened, 319 closed. As the number of breweries has gone up each year, a significant amount of closures also occurred. Your neighbor could have easily been one of those. More than 50% of small businesses fail in the first year of business according to well published and cited industry data. These are all people who tried to "invent their own futures" and it did not work out. That also doesn't mean that the remaining percentage were successful. Many of them have their owners working much more than corporate full time for less money then they'd be working on a cushy 9-5 job. For an opposite anecdote to yours, a family opened up an ice cream shop around the corner. They had good business and made ok money, but closed after 2 years. Why? Not only was the end of the day profit not great, they were heavily sacrificing time with their own family in order to run the day to day operations. They could have hired more people to handle those day to day hurdles, but that would have meant almost no take home pay. We should encourage people to "invent their own futures" but we also have to be realistic, because we don't have good safety nets for what happens when inventing your future fails, which means you have to make your own safety net. It's also not always trivial to re-enter corporate gigs after you've been doing something else for years, especially if closing of your small business has burned you out. It takes much more than just a good idea to make a small business succeed.

inconceivable 3y ago
"yeah but you might fail and then your life is destroyed" is not exactly a new take on the issue. this is in fact what 99% of people will tell you in real life if you try it. 10 years later those same people will either forget they said anything, or pretend they were on your side all along if you make it.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- DangitBobby 3y ago
  They were on your side all along, otherwise they wouldn't have bothered with the uncomfortable conversation about how they don't think your idea is going to be successful.
  - inconceivable 3y ago
    yeah, they're all on team crabs, and they're all in the bucket together.
- JieJie 3y ago
  In my experience with local businesses (alt-weekly newspaper for the college / queer bar scene), the same people were starting clubs that lasted for a year or two, then closed, then they started up a new one. It was about trying out a new business plan that may or may not work and if it doesn't, clearing the slate and starting over. The people who succeeded eventually landed on one with staying power, and the people who didn't eventually gave up. I bring it up to say that a single owner can be responsible for multiple business failures, and like you say, no one remembers those once you're successful.
  - malfist 3y ago
    You have to come from money to be able to make a succession of failed business ventures before you finally hit success
    - bojo 3y ago
      Would you say the same thing if we were talking about software startups?
      - ideamotor 3y ago
        Now: yes. 10 years go: no.
    - detourdog 3y ago
      or believe it is all going to work out ok. You come in with nothing and you leave with nothing.
      - jorvi 3y ago
        That’s not how banks work. They will want you to either buy in or put up collateral. You can’t just walk into a bank, say “here’s the detailed plan for my club, please give me a $100 000 unsecured loan.” Note that you can buy in via personal debt, but that is not “leave with nothing”.
      - 9659 3y ago
- jjulius 3y ago
  One can communicate that kind of concern while simultaneously remaining on their side... Edit, regarding OP's flagged response: Wow. Hope you have a nice day.
  - inconceivable 3y ago
    [flagged]
gymbeaux 3y ago
Certainly they belie the statistic that around 99% of startups fail.
- monero-xmr 3y ago
  Even if you fail you learn so much in the process. I’ve had many failures in my entrepreneurial career, but during those failures I earned a salary, I had health insurance, and even in the “failure” acquisitions I had jobs despite no shareholder payout. And now I have way less fear, way more risk tolerance, so much knowledge about things. Taking risks and doing new things is less risky to me because I can always make my own future. I have enough connections and history to take jobs, or raise capital for something new. It might work, it might not, but I’m willing to try and it’s so much more fun. Of course I want the lottery ticket but I’ve had enough singles and doubles to be very comfortable. It required many 60 hour weeks and sacrifices but I feel so alive, all the time.
  - lotsofpulp 3y ago
    > It might work, it might not, So what is the point of your anecdote? My immigrant parents worked their ass off in their small business, 24/7. No health insurance, no benefits, and no barely anytime to spend with their kids.
    - fuzztester 3y ago
      >> It might work, it might not, >So what is the point of your anecdote? What is the point of yours? Pot. Kettle.
  - fuzztester 3y ago
    Yes, nothing beats independence.
muzani 3y ago
I really dislike stats like these, because it doesn't show the odds of getting a cushy corporate job. About 10% of the people who did a diploma with me took a technical job. Many went on to become insurance agents, HR, real estate agents, selling food, and so on. Some figured out that they can't make it as an architect or engineer, and start successful bakeries. If you choose to live outside a major town, your odds of getting a corporate job are probably lower than your odds of running a brewery. People today talk about FAANG jobs and such but right after I graduated, all of FAANG (except Apple) were crazy oversized startups losing money. I was one of the few who stuck it out in the tech industry because I just wanted to program for a living, and I was willing to take lower salaries doing PHP than I would working at KFC. I ended up freelancing for about 5 years because many employers couldn't figure out how to make apps profitably, right until venture capital came to the country and the first unicorns appeared.

inconceivable 3y ago

"yeah but you might fail and then your life is destroyed" is not exactly a new take on the issue. this is in fact what 99% of people will tell you in real life if you try it. 10 years later those same people will either forget they said anything, or pretend they were on your side all along if you make it.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
DangitBobby 3y ago
They were on your side all along, otherwise they wouldn't have bothered with the uncomfortable conversation about how they don't think your idea is going to be successful.
- inconceivable 3y ago
  yeah, they're all on team crabs, and they're all in the bucket together.
JieJie 3y ago
In my experience with local businesses (alt-weekly newspaper for the college / queer bar scene), the same people were starting clubs that lasted for a year or two, then closed, then they started up a new one. It was about trying out a new business plan that may or may not work and if it doesn't, clearing the slate and starting over. The people who succeeded eventually landed on one with staying power, and the people who didn't eventually gave up. I bring it up to say that a single owner can be responsible for multiple business failures, and like you say, no one remembers those once you're successful.
- malfist 3y ago
  You have to come from money to be able to make a succession of failed business ventures before you finally hit success
  - bojo 3y ago
    Would you say the same thing if we were talking about software startups?
    - ideamotor 3y ago
      Now: yes. 10 years go: no.
  - detourdog 3y ago
    or believe it is all going to work out ok. You come in with nothing and you leave with nothing.
    - jorvi 3y ago
      That’s not how banks work. They will want you to either buy in or put up collateral. You can’t just walk into a bank, say “here’s the detailed plan for my club, please give me a $100 000 unsecured loan.” Note that you can buy in via personal debt, but that is not “leave with nothing”.
    - 9659 3y ago
jjulius 3y ago
One can communicate that kind of concern while simultaneously remaining on their side... Edit, regarding OP's flagged response: Wow. Hope you have a nice day.
- inconceivable 3y ago
  [flagged]

gymbeaux 3y ago

Certainly they belie the statistic that around 99% of startups fail.

monero-xmr 3y ago
Even if you fail you learn so much in the process. I’ve had many failures in my entrepreneurial career, but during those failures I earned a salary, I had health insurance, and even in the “failure” acquisitions I had jobs despite no shareholder payout. And now I have way less fear, way more risk tolerance, so much knowledge about things. Taking risks and doing new things is less risky to me because I can always make my own future. I have enough connections and history to take jobs, or raise capital for something new. It might work, it might not, but I’m willing to try and it’s so much more fun. Of course I want the lottery ticket but I’ve had enough singles and doubles to be very comfortable. It required many 60 hour weeks and sacrifices but I feel so alive, all the time.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
  > It might work, it might not, So what is the point of your anecdote? My immigrant parents worked their ass off in their small business, 24/7. No health insurance, no benefits, and no barely anytime to spend with their kids.
  - fuzztester 3y ago
    >> It might work, it might not, >So what is the point of your anecdote? What is the point of yours? Pot. Kettle.
- fuzztester 3y ago
  Yes, nothing beats independence.

muzani 3y ago

I really dislike stats like these, because it doesn't show the odds of getting a cushy corporate job. About 10% of the people who did a diploma with me took a technical job. Many went on to become insurance agents, HR, real estate agents, selling food, and so on. Some figured out that they can't make it as an architect or engineer, and start successful bakeries. If you choose to live outside a major town, your odds of getting a corporate job are probably lower than your odds of running a brewery. People today talk about FAANG jobs and such but right after I graduated, all of FAANG (except Apple) were crazy oversized startups losing money. I was one of the few who stuck it out in the tech industry because I just wanted to program for a living, and I was willing to take lower salaries doing PHP than I would working at KFC. I ended up freelancing for about 5 years because many employers couldn't figure out how to make apps profitably, right until venture capital came to the country and the first unicorns appeared.