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My predictions for exactly how this will go down: 1) Reddit will see a profit bump due to everyone switching to the reddit app. But only the lurker community m

My predictions for exactly how this will go down: 1) Reddit will see a profit bump due to everyone switching to the reddit app. But only the lurker community mostly. 2) About a year from now the numbers will start going in a bad direction. 3) About 6 months from now, Steve will use the bump to justify IPO at a higher than what it should be valuation. 4) IPO happens, suckers lose their money, Steve comes out massively rich.

api 3y ago
All they need is a profit bump so insiders can sell to suckers in the public market.
- Justsignedup 3y ago
  That's more or less what I've been thinking. They are looking for short term profits to get those pay bonuses. That's how the CEO is compensated, and those investors want to pull their money and make them profits. Its a major gamble, but knowing compensation packages, they'll land on a cushy golden parachute, meanwhile the workers of reddit and the community will massively suffer.
- evolve2k 3y ago
  Again in this article he spoke that profits haven’t been affected. This is because advertisers have not been involved in the strike. To ramp up the action the community needs to find a way to bring pressure on advertisers to get onboard and support the community. Which companies are the most classic reddit advertisers who want to be liked by the community? Which companies are most likely to be sympathetic to this action? Future news needs to read “Company X today bowed to pressure and joined the strike”. When advertisers start putting their ads on hold this thing ramps up a whole nother level.
  - evolve2k 3y ago
    Surely there are companies that align with the values of the community. Off the top of my head; Companies that claim to value accessibility. Companies that value affordable pricing. Companies that also are reliant on building healthy communities. Who are the big sponsors of reddit that you know of? Who would be easy to convince to come out in support and pause their ad spend for a bit?
    - gremlinsinc 3y ago
      I read somewhere that industry watchdog sites on marketing, are telling people to pull ads from Reddit, as it's not clear how this internal culture war will turn out, and basically it's a risky investment. FB / Google and even Twitter ads are much more sound at the moment.
gremlinsinc 3y ago
I see moderators giving in, but each forum becomes basically /r/worldpolitics where any post goes so long as it doesn't offend Reddit Admins. Wait too see a lot more porn and gore on non porn/gore subs.
crimsontech 3y ago
I would be shocked if it takes a year. If a good chunk of people stop adding content the lurkers will stop visiting because they aren’t seeing the novelty they are looking for.
- lamontcg 3y ago
  I feel like you're both not appreciating the level with which botting, AI and PR shills/astroturfing can make up for the power users. The content will suffer in ways that will turn all of us here off, but the content already has suffered and the main forums (most of the ad dollars probably) are full of reposts and inane comments. Reddit can just keep their Eternal September going on for a long time on endlessly recycled content that most of the users still haven't seen due to xkcd/1053 (Ten Thousand). There's going to have to be a viable alternative emerge to really defeat reddit, otherwise it is just the only real game in town, and most of the people actually will be happy to use it. I think that "imminent collapse" predictions of a stark failure of reddit in a year or two are probably off the mark, and the most likely outcome is going to be continued and accelerating "enshittification". My bet is the analogy is probably more like the Discovery Channel and less like Digg. Of course at some point with all the discontent there will probably be a new social network that emerges and attracts everyone and at some point reddit will likely hit a hard stop, but I think that's more of a 5-10 year timescale since there's currently no good alternative. That doesn't make for a very emotionally appealing story though because the bad guy is probably going to get his IPO and walk away quite wealthy. But that is our system of Capitalism for you. [ Oh, and the 2024 election is just around the corner and reddit is likely to turn into a battleground again and that will drive both engagement and shilling/astroturfing like mad, which will all be good for profits and some nice numbers for the IPO ]
  - Justsignedup 3y ago
    I don't know if you're gonna be right or not, but I think that so far we've seen the CEO "bad buy" pretty much always win. So I don't expect this to be different. People like him know one thing, how to turn a short term profit by fucking shit up.

api 3y ago

All they need is a profit bump so insiders can sell to suckers in the public market.

Justsignedup 3y ago
That's more or less what I've been thinking. They are looking for short term profits to get those pay bonuses. That's how the CEO is compensated, and those investors want to pull their money and make them profits. Its a major gamble, but knowing compensation packages, they'll land on a cushy golden parachute, meanwhile the workers of reddit and the community will massively suffer.
evolve2k 3y ago
Again in this article he spoke that profits haven’t been affected. This is because advertisers have not been involved in the strike. To ramp up the action the community needs to find a way to bring pressure on advertisers to get onboard and support the community. Which companies are the most classic reddit advertisers who want to be liked by the community? Which companies are most likely to be sympathetic to this action? Future news needs to read “Company X today bowed to pressure and joined the strike”. When advertisers start putting their ads on hold this thing ramps up a whole nother level.
- evolve2k 3y ago
  Surely there are companies that align with the values of the community. Off the top of my head; Companies that claim to value accessibility. Companies that value affordable pricing. Companies that also are reliant on building healthy communities. Who are the big sponsors of reddit that you know of? Who would be easy to convince to come out in support and pause their ad spend for a bit?
  - gremlinsinc 3y ago
    I read somewhere that industry watchdog sites on marketing, are telling people to pull ads from Reddit, as it's not clear how this internal culture war will turn out, and basically it's a risky investment. FB / Google and even Twitter ads are much more sound at the moment.

gremlinsinc 3y ago

I see moderators giving in, but each forum becomes basically /r/worldpolitics where any post goes so long as it doesn't offend Reddit Admins. Wait too see a lot more porn and gore on non porn/gore subs.

crimsontech 3y ago

I would be shocked if it takes a year. If a good chunk of people stop adding content the lurkers will stop visiting because they aren’t seeing the novelty they are looking for.

lamontcg 3y ago
I feel like you're both not appreciating the level with which botting, AI and PR shills/astroturfing can make up for the power users. The content will suffer in ways that will turn all of us here off, but the content already has suffered and the main forums (most of the ad dollars probably) are full of reposts and inane comments. Reddit can just keep their Eternal September going on for a long time on endlessly recycled content that most of the users still haven't seen due to xkcd/1053 (Ten Thousand). There's going to have to be a viable alternative emerge to really defeat reddit, otherwise it is just the only real game in town, and most of the people actually will be happy to use it. I think that "imminent collapse" predictions of a stark failure of reddit in a year or two are probably off the mark, and the most likely outcome is going to be continued and accelerating "enshittification". My bet is the analogy is probably more like the Discovery Channel and less like Digg. Of course at some point with all the discontent there will probably be a new social network that emerges and attracts everyone and at some point reddit will likely hit a hard stop, but I think that's more of a 5-10 year timescale since there's currently no good alternative. That doesn't make for a very emotionally appealing story though because the bad guy is probably going to get his IPO and walk away quite wealthy. But that is our system of Capitalism for you. [ Oh, and the 2024 election is just around the corner and reddit is likely to turn into a battleground again and that will drive both engagement and shilling/astroturfing like mad, which will all be good for profits and some nice numbers for the IPO ]
- Justsignedup 3y ago
  I don't know if you're gonna be right or not, but I think that so far we've seen the CEO "bad buy" pretty much always win. So I don't expect this to be different. People like him know one thing, how to turn a short term profit by fucking shit up.