8 ms·

People need to start thinking of politically-impactful truths in terms of probability distributions and outcome possibility spaces, rather than absolutely. If

by ethbr0 3y ago

People need to start thinking of politically-impactful truths in terms of probability distributions and outcome possibility spaces, rather than absolutely. If it were a lab leak, there are probably a handful of eyewitnesses. Any information (not leak; was leak) would have serious ramifications to the political systems of the two largest economies in the world (the US and China). What are the chances that we'll ever hear the true story? Which isn't a suggestion that "They're covering {specific thing} up." It's a suggestion that we will never hear evidence of any of the possible outcomes. And beyond that, what would "the truth" in this case change? >> Said Metzl, “Had US government officials including Dr. Fauci stated from day one that a COVID-19 research-related origin was a very real possibility, and made clear that we had little idea what viruses were being held at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, what work was being done there, and who was doing that work, our national and global conversations would have been dramatically different. The time has come for a full accounting.” Yes, the national and global conversations would have been substantially worse and less effective. Once the cat's out of the bag with a global pandemic, any breath blaming its origin is wasted. Can you imagine how many scarce resources would have been mispent if SARS-CoV-2 had begun with worldwide knowledge that China was responsible?

lenkite 3y ago
> Can you imagine how many scarce resources would have been mispent if SARS-CoV-2 had begun with worldwide knowledge that China was responsible? Well. Dr Fauci was the guy who gave the money to this institute for gain-of-function experiments which would not be tolerated in the US. (Get the dirty, dangerous work done somewhere else where people can ideally die without causing a fuss). "Grant money for the controversial experiment came from the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which is headed by Anthony Fauci. The award to EcoHealth Alliance, a research organization which studies the spread of viruses from animals to humans, included subawards to Wuhan Institute of Virology and East China Normal University."
SomeRndName11 3y ago
[flagged]
cscurmudgeon 3y ago
> Can you imagine how many scarce resources would have been mispent if SARS-CoV-2 had begun with worldwide knowledge that China was responsible? OTOH if we knew that China was responsible, won't the future be better served by putting safeguards to prevent a worse thing happening again?
- ethbr0 3y ago
  I'm of two minds on that. On one hand: yes, more data will inform future technical approaches and procedures. On the other hand: no, people are technically ignorant, xenophobic, and more willing to scapegoat and project anger than reflect on their own behavior.
  - epicureanideal 3y ago
    I've lived in many US states, including in the south, and I have not met very many of these ignorant, xenophopic, scapegoat-seeking people that everyone claims to be worried about. Seems like those people, if they exist in any significant numbers, are just an excuse to lie to the public "for their own good".
    - rnk 3y ago
      If you didn't meet those people, then either you're ignorant yourself -(with all due respect), or you are not looking closely. I'm from the south. I went to high school there, I got my college degree from there. I live there from the time I was born until my mid-20s. The south is full of racist, horrible people, it was common in my youth to hear people talk badly about Jewish people, people dropped the n word. I heard people talking about non-Christians shouldn't get to vote. I heard plenty of sexist words about women for men. It just beggars belief that you would never hear this kind of speech. I just don't commonly hear this on the west coast in the US like I did in my years in the south. And unfortunately I still hear it when I go to visit. Not everyone is like that! But enough people are that, so that you're going to encounter it over and over again.
      - 3y ago
kneebonian 3y ago
For me it isn't about the effectiveness or the blame it was that we spent 2 years where many fundamental and basic rights were suspended because of fear. For me it is not about blame it is about reminding people how fragile our rights are and that there are people all to willing and eager to take them. Combined with the massive redistribution of wealth that happened as a direct result of government action that further widened wealth inequality.
- basisword 3y ago
  I’m sure the millions that died are also frustrated our rights were infringed temporarily due to…fear.
  - mistermann 3y ago
    What rights are those? Do all humans share these rights regardless of geographical location or geopolitical affiliation?
  - brvsft 3y ago
    You'd have a point if these actions saved lives, but they didn't. And it turns out in some cases, the actions probably led to more deaths, e.g. NY quarantining patients in nursing homes.
    - mharig 3y ago
      Do not forget the deaths of malnutrition due to interrupted logistics. The Unicef estimated those to >9 million in 2019 and >31 million in 2020.
- rnk 3y ago
  We had an emergency health situation and the government made emergency rules. Those rules were rescinded later when the emergency was reduced, partly because of widespread vaccination. This is not the first time that during a health emergency the US govt at various levels made temporary stringent rules. It turned out that our political argument against the rules is probably why the u.s had a much higher death rate from covet than other industrialized countries.
manicdee 3y ago
> If it were a lab leak, there are probably a handful of eyewitnesses. Not at all. The chances are that if it was a lab leak the people involved had no idea the leak happened at all. That's how lab leaks work: people make mistakes and inadvertently leak stuff from the lab. eg: Karen Wetterhahn vs lead What you're talking about is a deliberate release from a lab, which would have eyewitnesses because they know what is happening and see it happening and can corroborate the reports of other witnesses. eg: Thomas Midgley Jr vs lead
- areoform 3y ago
  In Dr. Wetterhahn's case, it wasn't a leak and it wasn't lead. It was a spill that was contained properly and she followed all known procedures at the time. But it wasn't known at the time that dimethylmercury could penetrate through the gloves in less than 15 seconds. The estimated amount she absorbed through her gloves was roughly 0.089 teaspoons or 0.44ml (less than a drop) of dimethylmercury. That was enough to kill her. No one else was exposed. If she had prioritized herself over cleaning up, she may have survived.

by ethbr0 3y ago

lenkite 3y ago

> Can you imagine how many scarce resources would have been mispent if SARS-CoV-2 had begun with worldwide knowledge that China was responsible? Well. Dr Fauci was the guy who gave the money to this institute for gain-of-function experiments which would not be tolerated in the US. (Get the dirty, dangerous work done somewhere else where people can ideally die without causing a fuss). "Grant money for the controversial experiment came from the National Institutes of Health’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which is headed by Anthony Fauci. The award to EcoHealth Alliance, a research organization which studies the spread of viruses from animals to humans, included subawards to Wuhan Institute of Virology and East China Normal University."

SomeRndName11 3y ago

[flagged]

cscurmudgeon 3y ago

> Can you imagine how many scarce resources would have been mispent if SARS-CoV-2 had begun with worldwide knowledge that China was responsible? OTOH if we knew that China was responsible, won't the future be better served by putting safeguards to prevent a worse thing happening again?

ethbr0 3y ago
I'm of two minds on that. On one hand: yes, more data will inform future technical approaches and procedures. On the other hand: no, people are technically ignorant, xenophobic, and more willing to scapegoat and project anger than reflect on their own behavior.
- epicureanideal 3y ago
  I've lived in many US states, including in the south, and I have not met very many of these ignorant, xenophopic, scapegoat-seeking people that everyone claims to be worried about. Seems like those people, if they exist in any significant numbers, are just an excuse to lie to the public "for their own good".
  - rnk 3y ago
    If you didn't meet those people, then either you're ignorant yourself -(with all due respect), or you are not looking closely. I'm from the south. I went to high school there, I got my college degree from there. I live there from the time I was born until my mid-20s. The south is full of racist, horrible people, it was common in my youth to hear people talk badly about Jewish people, people dropped the n word. I heard people talking about non-Christians shouldn't get to vote. I heard plenty of sexist words about women for men. It just beggars belief that you would never hear this kind of speech. I just don't commonly hear this on the west coast in the US like I did in my years in the south. And unfortunately I still hear it when I go to visit. Not everyone is like that! But enough people are that, so that you're going to encounter it over and over again.
    - 3y ago

kneebonian 3y ago

For me it isn't about the effectiveness or the blame it was that we spent 2 years where many fundamental and basic rights were suspended because of fear. For me it is not about blame it is about reminding people how fragile our rights are and that there are people all to willing and eager to take them. Combined with the massive redistribution of wealth that happened as a direct result of government action that further widened wealth inequality.

basisword 3y ago
I’m sure the millions that died are also frustrated our rights were infringed temporarily due to…fear.
- mistermann 3y ago
  What rights are those? Do all humans share these rights regardless of geographical location or geopolitical affiliation?
- brvsft 3y ago
  You'd have a point if these actions saved lives, but they didn't. And it turns out in some cases, the actions probably led to more deaths, e.g. NY quarantining patients in nursing homes.
  - mharig 3y ago
    Do not forget the deaths of malnutrition due to interrupted logistics. The Unicef estimated those to >9 million in 2019 and >31 million in 2020.
rnk 3y ago
We had an emergency health situation and the government made emergency rules. Those rules were rescinded later when the emergency was reduced, partly because of widespread vaccination. This is not the first time that during a health emergency the US govt at various levels made temporary stringent rules. It turned out that our political argument against the rules is probably why the u.s had a much higher death rate from covet than other industrialized countries.

manicdee 3y ago

> If it were a lab leak, there are probably a handful of eyewitnesses. Not at all. The chances are that if it was a lab leak the people involved had no idea the leak happened at all. That's how lab leaks work: people make mistakes and inadvertently leak stuff from the lab. eg: Karen Wetterhahn vs lead What you're talking about is a deliberate release from a lab, which would have eyewitnesses because they know what is happening and see it happening and can corroborate the reports of other witnesses. eg: Thomas Midgley Jr vs lead

areoform 3y ago
In Dr. Wetterhahn's case, it wasn't a leak and it wasn't lead. It was a spill that was contained properly and she followed all known procedures at the time. But it wasn't known at the time that dimethylmercury could penetrate through the gloves in less than 15 seconds. The estimated amount she absorbed through her gloves was roughly 0.089 teaspoons or 0.44ml (less than a drop) of dimethylmercury. That was enough to kill her. No one else was exposed. If she had prioritized herself over cleaning up, she may have survived.