3 ms·
The phenomenon of fertility falling as societies get more advanced is called "demographic transition". But societies don't keep getting more advanced! Once a s
by twic 3y ago
The phenomenon of fertility falling as societies get more advanced is called "demographic transition".
But societies don't keep getting more advanced! Once a society has become a modern post-industrial, "liberal" society, the demographic transition effect stops. After that, other factors continue to act on fertility.
And there is evidence that fertility is heritable, and positively selected for (almost by definition, i think). So we might expect to see fertility slowly rise after demographic transitions are complete. If that is the case, the current situation of declining and ageing populations is only a transient state.
I read some stuff on this a while ago, didn't save the links, and now can't find it. But digging around now, i think these papers are relevant:
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2013.2561 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2013.256...
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2015.0157 https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rstb.2015.015...
- anovikov 3y agoWhile you are certainly right, question is though, how far may it grow? It might be that the growth will still be insufficient for replacement. I believe key factor here is nation size. A sufficiently big corporation in a sufficiently small (but not necessarily tiny) nation may find it profitable to solve demography directly, i.e. by hiring women to have babies and paying them salaries. Simply to have more consumers for its products in the next generation. Maybe corporations can even pool their resources towards this goal.