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> Karp believes that the West currently holds key commercial and military advantages in AI and should not relinquish them. Delusional take, considering the Eas

by imiric 3y ago

> Karp believes that the West currently holds key commercial and military advantages in AI and should not relinquish them. Delusional take, considering the East holds the AI advantage.

bbor 3y ago
Very curious to hear your reasoning!
- BSEdlMMldESB 3y ago
  I wold scarcely call it 'reasoning', it's closer to 'wild guessing' I think 'the east' has working multi-language LLMs, but the west's version doesn't quite perform as well with multiple languages
- imiric 3y ago
  I'm mostly trolling to stir the pot and see HN's response, and you don't disappoint. :) But since we're all speculating here, if I had to place my money on who will come out on top with AI, it would be the East. And by East, I specifically mean China. While the West is scrambling to limit the pace of AI development, no such regulation exists in China. There have certainly been regulations to limit the power of Chinese companies in the past few years, but ultimately the shot caller is the CCP. An autocracy has more power and influence to direct its resources in a single direction much more efficiently than any democratic government. Then there's the manufacturing side. The West does still control the most advanced chip fabrication technologies, but China is quickly ramping up development with results that rival those of TSMC/ASML[1]. If any country can be self-sufficient with chip fabrication, it's China. There's only so much harm US sanctions can do to a self-sufficient country. [1]: https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/chinas-semiconductor-breakthrough/ https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/chinas-semiconductor-breakth...
  - amanaplanacanal 3y ago
    Are there any regulations on AI in the US? I’m not aware of any. > An autocracy has more power and influence to direct its resources in a single direction much more efficiently than any democratic government. Fortunately, because it’s an autocracy, there is no way to know if it is the right direction, until it fails.
    - ryandrake 3y ago
      I was going to say! The US is infamous for treating corporations with kid gloves and letting them basically get away with whatever they do. If there is a place in "The West" that's going to regulate AI, it's not going to be the US.
      - ldehaan 3y ago
        [dead]
    - imiric 3y ago
      > Are there any regulations on AI in the US? I’m not aware of any. I worded that wrongly, but what I meant is that the current concerns with AI and discussions to pause AI development are entirely happening in Western countries. China will regulate its companies to comply with the goals of the CCP, but they don't have the same ethical and moral concerns as the West. > Fortunately, because it’s an autocracy, there is no way to know if it is the right direction, until it fails. They can also afford to fail fast. It's the "move fast and break things" approach to government. :)
    - 2devnull 3y ago
      “Are there any regulations on AI in the US? I’m not aware of any” There are yes. Environmental regulations that impact hardware. Personal information, privacy regulations that impact the training data. Business regulations that impact what businesses and business owners can do with labor, financial reporting, etc… We also have a fourth estate so if people like Yudkowksi get enough traction in the media the government will be force to act. That is worse than regulation by government, it’s regulation by the whim of the media owners. These are not AI regulation per se, but they are de facto restrictions that aren’t present to the same degree in communist China.
  - bbor 3y ago
    Thanks for the honesty! That is of course against hacker news guidelines, but oh well. Specifically “Eschew flamebait.” Regarding the topic at hand: that’s plausible. I wouldn’t describe the west as “scrambling to limit AI development” though, more “establishing conventions and rules and accountability and and and”. I guess that might slow down research, but I don’t see it as that simplistic, like a blue bar ticking up in Civ; AI will need some major paradigm shifts before it gets really crazy, and I think a healthier and more sustainable field helps that rather than hindering it. Plus there’s the fact that “the west” (kinda hate these terms tbh) has ~66% of all CS research - https://m-cacm.acm.org/magazines/2022/4/259407-trends-in-computer-science-research-within-european-countries/abstract https://m-cacm.acm.org/magazines/2022/4/259407-trends-in-com...
    - imiric 3y ago
      At my defense, I wasn't flamebaiting as I honestly believe what I said. It's just a controversial topic, and I expected the negative response. > I wouldn’t describe the west as “scrambling to limit AI development” though, more “establishing conventions and rules and accountability and and and”. Well, the discussions here are about pausing AI development. There's a growing public concern about its capabilities, and democratic governments must, in theory, abide to its citizens. An autocratic government can impose its will on the people, and even though China has passed AI regulation recently[1], it ultimately must serve the goals of the CCP. The Chinese government has much more power to direct its resources in ensuring it ends up on top in this race, while Western countries will be bogged down by bureaucracy, red tape, and more stringent regulation. Not to mention that the CCP doesn't share the same moral and ethical concerns. So any current lead the West has at the moment, will not remain so in a few years. But this is entirely an opinion from a layperson, and I have no expertise in the matter. Cheers for the civil discussion! [1]: https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-releases-draft-measures-managing-generative-artificial-intelligence-2023-04-11/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-releases-draft-meas...
      - peteradio 3y ago
        The fastest train still has to stay on the tracks, I think OPs point is that the potential for devastating knock on effects from a mismanaged AI effort can cause overall slowdowns. The red tape and bureaucracy may slow things down from some theoretical maximum, but a train can't fly so as the crow flies is only a theoretical route for a train.
yes_man 3y ago
How so?
- shri_krishna 3y ago
  Two words: Nvidia, TSMC
  - adastra22 3y ago
    NVIDIA is based in Santa Clara. TSMC is hosted by a strongly west-aligned country.
    - caycep 3y ago
      led by UC Berkeley engineers...
    - shri_krishna 3y ago
      Doesn't matter where it is based. Nvidia relies on 7nm N7 chips from TSMC for its GPUs. TSMC is based in Taiwan. Both at mercy of China - from trade routes going through South China Sea as well as raw materials being sourced from China. > TSMC is hosted by a strongly west-aligned country. Which is right next to an increasingly hostile neighbour who keeps threatening to invade it. Unless the West is willing to go to War with China over TSMC, I don't see for how long it can maintain advantage. Even Apple, Qualcomm depend on TSMC heavily. Lets face it. AI is primarily driven by GPUs sourced from Nvidia which depends on TSMC. China has been eyeing Taiwan for long now and we never know when it might decide to finally invade. There is no clear roadmap from the West on how it will defend Taiwan (except for saying US should blow up TSMC or TSMC should implement self-destruct mechanism in event of Chinese invasion [1]). [1]: https://theprint.in/world/us-scholars-advice-for-taiwans-top-chipmaker-self-destruct-mechanism-could-deter-chinese-invasion/1622123/ https://theprint.in/world/us-scholars-advice-for-taiwans-top...
      - pokerface_86 3y ago
        nvidia doesn’t NEED tsmc, they have actually proved otherwise with the success of ampere on samsung chips
ChumpGPT 3y ago
Yeah, I'm sure you have better insight and way more knowledge about the state of AI than Karp. What does he know anyway. It's not like Plantir has any special access to AI or the US Military.
- imiric 3y ago
  I'm sure the CEO of a US company whose clients include the US government would tell the absolute truth in a public forum, and not platitudes that would paint his company and clients in the best possible light.
- Sporktacular 3y ago
  He has a vested interest in saying what is necessary to prevent regulation.

by imiric 3y ago

> Karp believes that the West currently holds key commercial and military advantages in AI and should not relinquish them. Delusional take, considering the East holds the AI advantage.

bbor 3y ago

Very curious to hear your reasoning!

BSEdlMMldESB 3y ago
I wold scarcely call it 'reasoning', it's closer to 'wild guessing' I think 'the east' has working multi-language LLMs, but the west's version doesn't quite perform as well with multiple languages
imiric 3y ago
I'm mostly trolling to stir the pot and see HN's response, and you don't disappoint. :) But since we're all speculating here, if I had to place my money on who will come out on top with AI, it would be the East. And by East, I specifically mean China. While the West is scrambling to limit the pace of AI development, no such regulation exists in China. There have certainly been regulations to limit the power of Chinese companies in the past few years, but ultimately the shot caller is the CCP. An autocracy has more power and influence to direct its resources in a single direction much more efficiently than any democratic government. Then there's the manufacturing side. The West does still control the most advanced chip fabrication technologies, but China is quickly ramping up development with results that rival those of TSMC/ASML[1]. If any country can be self-sufficient with chip fabrication, it's China. There's only so much harm US sanctions can do to a self-sufficient country. [1]: https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/chinas-semiconductor-breakthrough/ https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/chinas-semiconductor-breakth...
- amanaplanacanal 3y ago
  Are there any regulations on AI in the US? I’m not aware of any. > An autocracy has more power and influence to direct its resources in a single direction much more efficiently than any democratic government. Fortunately, because it’s an autocracy, there is no way to know if it is the right direction, until it fails.
  - ryandrake 3y ago
    I was going to say! The US is infamous for treating corporations with kid gloves and letting them basically get away with whatever they do. If there is a place in "The West" that's going to regulate AI, it's not going to be the US.
    - ldehaan 3y ago
      [dead]
  - imiric 3y ago
    > Are there any regulations on AI in the US? I’m not aware of any. I worded that wrongly, but what I meant is that the current concerns with AI and discussions to pause AI development are entirely happening in Western countries. China will regulate its companies to comply with the goals of the CCP, but they don't have the same ethical and moral concerns as the West. > Fortunately, because it’s an autocracy, there is no way to know if it is the right direction, until it fails. They can also afford to fail fast. It's the "move fast and break things" approach to government. :)
  - 2devnull 3y ago
    “Are there any regulations on AI in the US? I’m not aware of any” There are yes. Environmental regulations that impact hardware. Personal information, privacy regulations that impact the training data. Business regulations that impact what businesses and business owners can do with labor, financial reporting, etc… We also have a fourth estate so if people like Yudkowksi get enough traction in the media the government will be force to act. That is worse than regulation by government, it’s regulation by the whim of the media owners. These are not AI regulation per se, but they are de facto restrictions that aren’t present to the same degree in communist China.
- bbor 3y ago
  Thanks for the honesty! That is of course against hacker news guidelines, but oh well. Specifically “Eschew flamebait.” Regarding the topic at hand: that’s plausible. I wouldn’t describe the west as “scrambling to limit AI development” though, more “establishing conventions and rules and accountability and and and”. I guess that might slow down research, but I don’t see it as that simplistic, like a blue bar ticking up in Civ; AI will need some major paradigm shifts before it gets really crazy, and I think a healthier and more sustainable field helps that rather than hindering it. Plus there’s the fact that “the west” (kinda hate these terms tbh) has ~66% of all CS research - https://m-cacm.acm.org/magazines/2022/4/259407-trends-in-computer-science-research-within-european-countries/abstract https://m-cacm.acm.org/magazines/2022/4/259407-trends-in-com...
  - imiric 3y ago
    At my defense, I wasn't flamebaiting as I honestly believe what I said. It's just a controversial topic, and I expected the negative response. > I wouldn’t describe the west as “scrambling to limit AI development” though, more “establishing conventions and rules and accountability and and and”. Well, the discussions here are about pausing AI development. There's a growing public concern about its capabilities, and democratic governments must, in theory, abide to its citizens. An autocratic government can impose its will on the people, and even though China has passed AI regulation recently[1], it ultimately must serve the goals of the CCP. The Chinese government has much more power to direct its resources in ensuring it ends up on top in this race, while Western countries will be bogged down by bureaucracy, red tape, and more stringent regulation. Not to mention that the CCP doesn't share the same moral and ethical concerns. So any current lead the West has at the moment, will not remain so in a few years. But this is entirely an opinion from a layperson, and I have no expertise in the matter. Cheers for the civil discussion! [1]: https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-releases-draft-measures-managing-generative-artificial-intelligence-2023-04-11/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-releases-draft-meas...
    - peteradio 3y ago
      The fastest train still has to stay on the tracks, I think OPs point is that the potential for devastating knock on effects from a mismanaged AI effort can cause overall slowdowns. The red tape and bureaucracy may slow things down from some theoretical maximum, but a train can't fly so as the crow flies is only a theoretical route for a train.

yes_man 3y ago

How so?

shri_krishna 3y ago
Two words: Nvidia, TSMC
- adastra22 3y ago
  NVIDIA is based in Santa Clara. TSMC is hosted by a strongly west-aligned country.
  - caycep 3y ago
    led by UC Berkeley engineers...
  - shri_krishna 3y ago
    Doesn't matter where it is based. Nvidia relies on 7nm N7 chips from TSMC for its GPUs. TSMC is based in Taiwan. Both at mercy of China - from trade routes going through South China Sea as well as raw materials being sourced from China. > TSMC is hosted by a strongly west-aligned country. Which is right next to an increasingly hostile neighbour who keeps threatening to invade it. Unless the West is willing to go to War with China over TSMC, I don't see for how long it can maintain advantage. Even Apple, Qualcomm depend on TSMC heavily. Lets face it. AI is primarily driven by GPUs sourced from Nvidia which depends on TSMC. China has been eyeing Taiwan for long now and we never know when it might decide to finally invade. There is no clear roadmap from the West on how it will defend Taiwan (except for saying US should blow up TSMC or TSMC should implement self-destruct mechanism in event of Chinese invasion [1]). [1]: https://theprint.in/world/us-scholars-advice-for-taiwans-top-chipmaker-self-destruct-mechanism-could-deter-chinese-invasion/1622123/ https://theprint.in/world/us-scholars-advice-for-taiwans-top...
    - pokerface_86 3y ago
      nvidia doesn’t NEED tsmc, they have actually proved otherwise with the success of ampere on samsung chips

ChumpGPT 3y ago

Yeah, I'm sure you have better insight and way more knowledge about the state of AI than Karp. What does he know anyway. It's not like Plantir has any special access to AI or the US Military.

imiric 3y ago
I'm sure the CEO of a US company whose clients include the US government would tell the absolute truth in a public forum, and not platitudes that would paint his company and clients in the best possible light.
Sporktacular 3y ago
He has a vested interest in saying what is necessary to prevent regulation.