5 ms·

And the very best just seem to be "luckier" than the rest...

by bored 15y ago

WalterBright 15y ago
The difference between lucky people and unlucky ones is that the lucky ones were able to recognize opportunity better. I've seen some research on this, but don't have a link handy.
- simon_weber 15y ago
  I prefer the idea that the lucky ones "made their own luck" by increasing luck surface area. In this view, the lucky may not have recognized opportunity better, just created better opportunities for themselves (through hard work). Even if this notion isn't completely correct, I like how it incentivises working rather than waiting.
  - ryanmolden 15y ago
    Nassim Taleb talks about this, I think in Fooled by Randomness. He couched it in terms of increasing exposure to chance (serendipitous) occurrences via being more social, studying across disciplines, keeping friends whose views differ from yours, etc... Edit: corrected my phone's overzealous auto-correct.
- mkramlich 15y ago
  i've come to view luck as preparation + opportunity. You can't directly make yourself "lucky" but you do have control over how much you prepare (study, practice, exercise, think, train, drill, paying attention to surroundings, planning for future, etc) and you can expose yourself to more opportunities by meeting more people, being more ambient, being social as well as analytical, watching community and industry news, etc. ps. huge fan of Empire! thank you sir for working on that game. i think Sid Meier cited it as a design influence for Civilization as well.
  - jimbokun 15y ago
    Preparation + opportunity, would be a great title for the Jeremy Lin story.
  - lurker17 15y ago
    https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Louis_Pasteur https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Louis_Pasteur "In the fields of observation chance favors only the prepared mind."
Afton 15y ago
Sounds like you're putting the cart before the horse. How are you identifying 'the very best' but by their successes? The argument is that you need both to 'succeed'. So, sure, if you only look at the ones that were both hard-working/relentless/growth-oriented AND lucky, then boy howdy does it look like luck isn't a factor.

And the very best just seem to be "luckier" than the rest...

by bored 15y ago

And the very best just seem to be "luckier" than the rest...

The difference between lucky people and unlucky ones is that the lucky ones were able to recognize opportunity better. I've seen some research on this, but don't have a link handy.

simon_weber 15y ago
I prefer the idea that the lucky ones "made their own luck" by increasing luck surface area. In this view, the lucky may not have recognized opportunity better, just created better opportunities for themselves (through hard work). Even if this notion isn't completely correct, I like how it incentivises working rather than waiting.
- ryanmolden 15y ago
  Nassim Taleb talks about this, I think in Fooled by Randomness. He couched it in terms of increasing exposure to chance (serendipitous) occurrences via being more social, studying across disciplines, keeping friends whose views differ from yours, etc... Edit: corrected my phone's overzealous auto-correct.
mkramlich 15y ago
i've come to view luck as preparation + opportunity. You can't directly make yourself "lucky" but you do have control over how much you prepare (study, practice, exercise, think, train, drill, paying attention to surroundings, planning for future, etc) and you can expose yourself to more opportunities by meeting more people, being more ambient, being social as well as analytical, watching community and industry news, etc. ps. huge fan of Empire! thank you sir for working on that game. i think Sid Meier cited it as a design influence for Civilization as well.
- jimbokun 15y ago
  Preparation + opportunity, would be a great title for the Jeremy Lin story.
- lurker17 15y ago
  https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Louis_Pasteur https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Louis_Pasteur "In the fields of observation chance favors only the prepared mind."

Afton 15y ago

Sounds like you're putting the cart before the horse. How are you identifying 'the very best' but by their successes? The argument is that you need both to 'succeed'. So, sure, if you only look at the ones that were both hard-working/relentless/growth-oriented AND lucky, then boy howdy does it look like luck isn't a factor.