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No it's really not fantastical. We have no physical evidence of extraterrestrials but we do have physical evidence that the CIA engages in sometimes ridiculous

No it's really not fantastical. We have no physical evidence of extraterrestrials but we do have physical evidence that the CIA engages in sometimes ridiculous operations to psychologically manipulate people. I mean if you told someone the CIA did mind control experiments in the 60s they'd think your nuts. But we know today with certainty they did, often with tragic consequence. So, the bayesian priors, given that in the course of humanity or even prehistorically there is no certain evidence of aliens, and plenty of evidence of weirdo government manipulation and innumerable examples of propaganda, should be skewed in the favor of any new fantastical governmental claim to be yet another silly operation by some three letter agency. Until someone procures a body or craft of certain non human origin, this is the only reasonable course of action.

nonethewiser 3y ago
> We have no physical evidence of extraterrestrials but we do have physical evidence that the CIA engages in sometimes ridiculous operations to psychologically manipulate people That’s true. And I would even say a CIA psyop is more likely than aliens. But its still purely speculative.
- glenstein 3y ago
  Right, and evidence free indulgences into fan fiction speculation about the CIA etc etc are unnecessary detours.
breck 3y ago
If you define aliens as a long separated branch on the tree of life with significantly more advanced technology, then alien encounters are more common in history (hawai’i in 1790’s being most recent i can think of). So mathematically its rare, but perhaps an experience of 1% of societies . And perhaps strongly correlated with one branch undergoing a rapid technological advance. i think it’s perfectly rationale and not fantastical, as long as its kept in mind that its a low probability event.
glenstein 3y ago
Yes, it really is fantastical. Six-degrees-of-Kevin-Bacon style associations to unrelated historical events, just to motivate fan fiction writing about psyops is not healthy engagement with the state of reported evidence, much less the only reasonable course of action. I can think of another, refraining from entertaining in elaborate explanations born of speculation unsupported by evidence. Boom, done. The fanfiction writing serves to validate the manner of thinking that would motivate people to believe the most extreme possible interpretation of this reporting, effectively extending a vote of approval toward people inclined to look at this and put themselves in a headspace of entertaining speculative beliefs without evidence.
- MichaelDickens 3y ago
  I don't think it's charitable or polite to refer to GP's argument as fan fiction. They're making a genuine argument about what they think could have happened, not writing a made-up story, regardless of how unlikely you think their psy-op hypothesis is.

nonethewiser 3y ago

> We have no physical evidence of extraterrestrials but we do have physical evidence that the CIA engages in sometimes ridiculous operations to psychologically manipulate people That’s true. And I would even say a CIA psyop is more likely than aliens. But its still purely speculative.

glenstein 3y ago
Right, and evidence free indulgences into fan fiction speculation about the CIA etc etc are unnecessary detours.

breck 3y ago

If you define aliens as a long separated branch on the tree of life with significantly more advanced technology, then alien encounters are more common in history (hawai’i in 1790’s being most recent i can think of). So mathematically its rare, but perhaps an experience of 1% of societies . And perhaps strongly correlated with one branch undergoing a rapid technological advance. i think it’s perfectly rationale and not fantastical, as long as its kept in mind that its a low probability event.

glenstein 3y ago

Yes, it really is fantastical. Six-degrees-of-Kevin-Bacon style associations to unrelated historical events, just to motivate fan fiction writing about psyops is not healthy engagement with the state of reported evidence, much less the only reasonable course of action. I can think of another, refraining from entertaining in elaborate explanations born of speculation unsupported by evidence. Boom, done. The fanfiction writing serves to validate the manner of thinking that would motivate people to believe the most extreme possible interpretation of this reporting, effectively extending a vote of approval toward people inclined to look at this and put themselves in a headspace of entertaining speculative beliefs without evidence.

MichaelDickens 3y ago
I don't think it's charitable or polite to refer to GP's argument as fan fiction. They're making a genuine argument about what they think could have happened, not writing a made-up story, regardless of how unlikely you think their psy-op hypothesis is.