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I get executives over promise and Elon especially, but he's admitted to the difficulty and how FSD was harder than anyone suspected. Why all of a sudden in his

I get executives over promise and Elon especially, but he's admitted to the difficulty and how FSD was harder than anyone suspected. Why all of a sudden in his videos does he seem extremely confident where he's been silent-ish the past few years? I've seen in numerous recent videos him mentioning Tesla's Ai team is the #1 real world AI company and no one is even close, and that FSD will be here very soon.

croes 3y ago
>I've seen in numerous recent videos him mentioning Tesla's Ai team is the #1 real world AI company and no one is even close, Marketing babble >and that FSD will be here very soon. Same story he told the last 5 years.
michaelsshaw 3y ago
> FSD was harder than anyone suspected Literally the only thing most people know about FSD is that it is hard. This is very on brand for Elon: 1. Claim something is super simple and easy 2. Get billion dollar contracts for vaporware 3. Fail to actually achieve anything remotely useful 4. Go silent see: The Boring Company, Hyperloop, FSD, etc... > Tesla's Ai team is the #1 real world AI company Big doubt on that one, I'm sorry, but it's almost certainly false.
- seanmcdirmid 3y ago
  > This is very on brand for Elon: I don’t think SpaceX is a failure in general, and Tesla seems to sell a lot of EVs, I feel like 10 years ago their were many comments on HN that both were impossible achievements. Not really a fan of musk, I bought a BMW i4 instead of a Tesla (although not for dislike of Musk), but the Musk haters seem to have a worse track record on their predictions than the Musk fanboys.
  - michaelsshaw 3y ago
    >I don’t think SpaceX is a failure in general I do take issue with this because I don't really see how a company that essentially leeches off Uncle Sam's bottomless pockets can tell its workers they need to be more "hardcore" or face bankruptcy if Starship doesn't work by EOY 2023
    - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
      Leeches of Uncle Sam ‘s bottomless pockets by providing it with cheaper launches than any other contractor could? Seriously not a success? Ok then… I get the idea that Musk is like Bezos or early Gates, it’s a management style that I wouldn’t like to work under, but it’s a style that can get results for some things. Anyways, engineers can easily vote with their feet.
      - michaelsshaw 3y ago
        >Leeches of Uncle Sam ‘s bottomless pockets by providing it with cheaper launches than any other contractor could? Seriously not a success? Ok then… The fact that any contractor comes close to bankruptcy proves that they are completely unable to continue providing these launches at the prices they agreed. And that's not even factoring in this wild `Mars 2029` delusion.
        seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        So they are leeching off of Uncle Sam’s bottomless pockets by selling it launches at a loss (hence burning VC or investor money)? Really confused what the point is here.
        signatoremo 3y ago
        You said above that Elon can’t be trusted, but now you are saying we should trust him that SpaceX “comes close to bankruptcy”? So trust him when it suits your argument?
        carstenhag 3y ago
        Elon promising things and not delivering = he failed his promises in the past many multiple times, there is no reason to trust him further Elon looking at his company's balance sheet or 1y forecast = hopefully there can't be too many things wrong in there, there is more reason to trust/believe statements regarding this. Not 4D chess.
    - signatoremo 3y ago

croes 3y ago

>I've seen in numerous recent videos him mentioning Tesla's Ai team is the #1 real world AI company and no one is even close, Marketing babble >and that FSD will be here very soon. Same story he told the last 5 years.

michaelsshaw 3y ago

> FSD was harder than anyone suspected Literally the only thing most people know about FSD is that it is hard. This is very on brand for Elon: 1. Claim something is super simple and easy 2. Get billion dollar contracts for vaporware 3. Fail to actually achieve anything remotely useful 4. Go silent see: The Boring Company, Hyperloop, FSD, etc... > Tesla's Ai team is the #1 real world AI company Big doubt on that one, I'm sorry, but it's almost certainly false.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
> This is very on brand for Elon: I don’t think SpaceX is a failure in general, and Tesla seems to sell a lot of EVs, I feel like 10 years ago their were many comments on HN that both were impossible achievements. Not really a fan of musk, I bought a BMW i4 instead of a Tesla (although not for dislike of Musk), but the Musk haters seem to have a worse track record on their predictions than the Musk fanboys.
- michaelsshaw 3y ago
  >I don’t think SpaceX is a failure in general I do take issue with this because I don't really see how a company that essentially leeches off Uncle Sam's bottomless pockets can tell its workers they need to be more "hardcore" or face bankruptcy if Starship doesn't work by EOY 2023
  - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
    Leeches of Uncle Sam ‘s bottomless pockets by providing it with cheaper launches than any other contractor could? Seriously not a success? Ok then… I get the idea that Musk is like Bezos or early Gates, it’s a management style that I wouldn’t like to work under, but it’s a style that can get results for some things. Anyways, engineers can easily vote with their feet.
    - michaelsshaw 3y ago
      >Leeches of Uncle Sam ‘s bottomless pockets by providing it with cheaper launches than any other contractor could? Seriously not a success? Ok then… The fact that any contractor comes close to bankruptcy proves that they are completely unable to continue providing these launches at the prices they agreed. And that's not even factoring in this wild `Mars 2029` delusion.
      - seanmcdirmid 3y ago
        So they are leeching off of Uncle Sam’s bottomless pockets by selling it launches at a loss (hence burning VC or investor money)? Really confused what the point is here.
      - signatoremo 3y ago
        You said above that Elon can’t be trusted, but now you are saying we should trust him that SpaceX “comes close to bankruptcy”? So trust him when it suits your argument?
        carstenhag 3y ago
        Elon promising things and not delivering = he failed his promises in the past many multiple times, there is no reason to trust him further Elon looking at his company's balance sheet or 1y forecast = hopefully there can't be too many things wrong in there, there is more reason to trust/believe statements regarding this. Not 4D chess.
  - signatoremo 3y ago