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Brazil is not Europe. It’s not going to be some minor inconvenience like having people to take cold showers and virtual signal on the internet. There will be fa

Brazil is not Europe. It’s not going to be some minor inconvenience like having people to take cold showers and virtual signal on the internet. There will be famine and the poorest people will die.

DoingIsLearning 3y ago
Indeed, Sri Lanka's latest crisis is a heavy example of fertilizer disruption without long term planning.
ben_w 3y ago
Europe got lucky with the cold, but for (many) other aspects has been very effective at diversifying very quickly away from Russian supply. Sure, even the poorest countries in the EU are significantly richer than Brazil, but it's not like we didn't get significant food price inflation either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)...
- cainxinth 3y ago
  Lucky? More like expected. The ten hottest years ever recorded all occurred in the last ten years. I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict next winter will also be unseasonably mild in Europe… and everywhere else.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    It was still warmer than expected. Look at how prices shot up in advance, before declining when it became clear quite how slowly the stockpiled resources would be consumed.
throwaway290 3y ago
It's not about not buying stuff at all. Just buy it from different sources. Morocco for example.
refulgentis 3y ago
Interesting, I've never heard the impact to Europe reduced to cold showers and "virtual signal on internet"
roqi 3y ago
> Brazil is not Europe. It’s not going to be some minor inconvenience like having people to take cold showers and virtual signal on the internet. There will be famine and the poorest people will die. I don't get your point. Where do you see this fundamental difference between Brazil and Europe? Europe was highly dependant on Russia for it's energy supply, to the point that Putin was hoping to leverage that to conduct his genocide of Ukraine unopposed, and Europe successfully shed that dependence on a dime. In your opinion, what stops Brazil from finding alternatives to Russia imports?
- marcodiego 3y ago
  Brazilian is an extremely unequal country. The poorest population is very sensitive to foods' prices fluctuation. Rejecting Russian fertilizers could mean famine (and not only for Brazil). There are some recent photos that show the result of accumulated inflation and unemployment during the pandemic: People scavenging bones to eat: https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2021/09/29/16329448496154c2d13dc47_1632944849_3x2_md.jpg https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2021/09/29/16329448496154c... People scavenging garbage to eat: https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-brasil247/swp/jtjeq9/media/20211018081024_f776655a3228d1f2a0e048217b91c25fc30fdfd6c5c6912e55f4d38a6496f6b0.webp https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-b...
- engineer_22 3y ago
  This was possible because alternative fuel sources were available. US fuel exports to Europe reached record levels, and political will was a large part of that. Alternative fertilizer suppliers might not be available.
- greiskul 3y ago
  How many people are currently starving to death in Europe right now because they cut ties with Russia? If Brazil were to suddenly cut all Russia imports, there would be places in Brazil with actual famines.

Brazil is not Europe. It’s not going to be some minor inconvenience like having people to take cold showers and virtual signal on the internet. There will be famine and the poorest people will die.

DoingIsLearning 3y ago

Indeed, Sri Lanka's latest crisis is a heavy example of fertilizer disruption without long term planning.

ben_w 3y ago

Europe got lucky with the cold, but for (many) other aspects has been very effective at diversifying very quickly away from Russian supply. Sure, even the poorest countries in the EU are significantly richer than Brazil, but it's not like we didn't get significant food price inflation either. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)...

cainxinth 3y ago
Lucky? More like expected. The ten hottest years ever recorded all occurred in the last ten years. I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict next winter will also be unseasonably mild in Europe… and everywhere else.
- ben_w 3y ago
  It was still warmer than expected. Look at how prices shot up in advance, before declining when it became clear quite how slowly the stockpiled resources would be consumed.

throwaway290 3y ago

It's not about not buying stuff at all. Just buy it from different sources. Morocco for example.

refulgentis 3y ago

Interesting, I've never heard the impact to Europe reduced to cold showers and "virtual signal on internet"

roqi 3y ago

> Brazil is not Europe. It’s not going to be some minor inconvenience like having people to take cold showers and virtual signal on the internet. There will be famine and the poorest people will die. I don't get your point. Where do you see this fundamental difference between Brazil and Europe? Europe was highly dependant on Russia for it's energy supply, to the point that Putin was hoping to leverage that to conduct his genocide of Ukraine unopposed, and Europe successfully shed that dependence on a dime. In your opinion, what stops Brazil from finding alternatives to Russia imports?

marcodiego 3y ago
Brazilian is an extremely unequal country. The poorest population is very sensitive to foods' prices fluctuation. Rejecting Russian fertilizers could mean famine (and not only for Brazil). There are some recent photos that show the result of accumulated inflation and unemployment during the pandemic: People scavenging bones to eat: https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2021/09/29/16329448496154c2d13dc47_1632944849_3x2_md.jpg https://f.i.uol.com.br/fotografia/2021/09/29/16329448496154c... People scavenging garbage to eat: https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-brasil247/swp/jtjeq9/media/20211018081024_f776655a3228d1f2a0e048217b91c25fc30fdfd6c5c6912e55f4d38a6496f6b0.webp https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-b...
engineer_22 3y ago
This was possible because alternative fuel sources were available. US fuel exports to Europe reached record levels, and political will was a large part of that. Alternative fertilizer suppliers might not be available.
greiskul 3y ago
How many people are currently starving to death in Europe right now because they cut ties with Russia? If Brazil were to suddenly cut all Russia imports, there would be places in Brazil with actual famines.