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Every comment I read about this is how low housing, low income, no time, etc is the cause of a global fertility drop, but I don't buy. Humans have been having b

Every comment I read about this is how low housing, low income, no time, etc is the cause of a global fertility drop, but I don't buy. Humans have been having boatloads of kids in horrible horrible times and they haven't been stopped until now.

hotpotamus 3y ago
Any theories as to the cause then?
- danlugo92 3y ago
  Flynn effect
- chii 3y ago
  Freedom from being forced to reproduce in recent/modern times for women, and the fact that a lot of women now have a lot of choices (such as going career focused). Not to mention the fact that a lot of younger people would prefer to have financial security "setup" first, before embarking on the journey of child raising (but unfortunately, this takes a lot of time, and fraught with uncertainty).
- idontwantthis 3y ago
  It's entirely because people now have a choice of whether or not to have kids and most people are choosing not to for completely valid reasons.
- erikerikson 3y ago
  Birth control
- randallsquared 3y ago
  As children, humans are receiving a torrent of new information all the time. For hundreds of thousands of years, the torrent slows as the human becomes an adolescent, puberty kicks off, and then they have children as the product of the latest new sensation. All that is upended, now. Not only are people continuing to have an available torrent of information into their twenties, but now it is possible to just never stop, so the transition to the next stage of life doesn't happen for more and more, and we just stay (functionally) children into the thirties, forties, or later, after which it's too late for more than half of us. Not sure how seriously I take this. :)
perryizgr8 3y ago
Yeah most people saying they can't afford to have children probably are in the richest 10% of the world's population. They can absolutely afford a child.
- bombcar 3y ago
  The cost they don't want to pay isn't monetary, it's time/commitment. And to avoid the time/commitment, you need lots and lots of money, and even then you still lose control of your life; suddenly there's other forces that require you to do things you don't want to do.
  - perryizgr8 3y ago
    That's my point. It is not a monetary issue. It is a matter of priorities. People should just say that having children is not high on their priority list, instead we get a bunch of excuses (cost of living, global warming, etc.).
LapsangGuzzler 3y ago
True, but we're seeing a measurable decline of standard of living in the west, which forces people to make sacrifices in their lifestyles. Millions of Americans are waking up to the fact that they're gonna be worse off in adulthood than their parents were and one of the easiest ways to try to maintain their standard of living is not to have children. It's not just about how many raised kids in squalor, it's about how many people are experiencing socioeconomic decline. It's also purely anecdotal, but anti-natalist sentiment is very much on the rise in my community. I meet more and more people concerned that bringing a child into the world now means condemning them to suffer the worst consequences of climate change. No idea if this is represented at all on a global scale, but it's very present in my area.
- chii 3y ago
  > seeing a measurable decline of standard of living in the west is this really true? With the exception of the covid lockdown causing issues, i've found that i've been able to acquire all my necessary material needs, and more. It is true that my purchasing power is being clawed away via inflation, but this is counteracted by wage increases and investment returns (on average).
  - LapsangGuzzler 3y ago
    America has far and away the highest poverty rate of the modern world[0], there's a very strong economic divide in America. I earn about $175K as a software engineer, which easily puts me into the top 1% of income earners in my generation. Just because life is good to me does not mean that I reflect the average lifestyle in America. 0: https://confrontingpoverty.org/poverty-facts-and-myths/americas-poor-are-worse-off-than-elsewhere/ https://confrontingpoverty.org/poverty-facts-and-myths/ameri...
    - thunderbird120 3y ago
      > In this table, poverty is being measured as the percent of the population falling below one half of a particular country’s median household income. That is a measure of income inequality... not poverty. Here is a measure of inflation adjusted household income over time for to address the original point[1]. People are not getting poorer [1]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N
seer 3y ago
Thing is, the marginal cost of kids has shot through the roof. It’s no longer a sensible thing to do - in the horrible times you mention, children were investments - you spend ~ 10years raising them, and after that they worked for you, almost free labor. And a lot more things required labor to function. Now, kids are almost all cost, as the government / society itself captures their economic output, and doesn’t give enough back to the family that did the work to raise them. So now you have kids because you want to, and its no longer rational act, more emotional one.
robbomacrae 3y ago
Counter point... or more of a theory.. everyone who wants to have a child wants to be as good as, or a better parent than their own, and want to provide for their children's childhood as good as, or better than their own. I don't have references to back this up but it seems to be the case with most parents or aspiring parents I talk to. In the western world we compare ourselves to our parents who bought their 1st houses when they were in their twenties.. something we are less likely to achieve even with the same status job until much later on.
- xeromal 3y ago
  I think it's a valid argument, but I don't think it's particularly strong. Humans are driven to have children and have for our entire history.
  - slaw 3y ago
    Humans are driven to have sex and with easily available contraceptives, having sex and having children are no longer tightly related.
seydor 3y ago
Maybe,horrible times is the solution

hotpotamus 3y ago

Any theories as to the cause then?

danlugo92 3y ago
Flynn effect
chii 3y ago
Freedom from being forced to reproduce in recent/modern times for women, and the fact that a lot of women now have a lot of choices (such as going career focused). Not to mention the fact that a lot of younger people would prefer to have financial security "setup" first, before embarking on the journey of child raising (but unfortunately, this takes a lot of time, and fraught with uncertainty).
idontwantthis 3y ago
It's entirely because people now have a choice of whether or not to have kids and most people are choosing not to for completely valid reasons.
erikerikson 3y ago
Birth control
randallsquared 3y ago
As children, humans are receiving a torrent of new information all the time. For hundreds of thousands of years, the torrent slows as the human becomes an adolescent, puberty kicks off, and then they have children as the product of the latest new sensation. All that is upended, now. Not only are people continuing to have an available torrent of information into their twenties, but now it is possible to just never stop, so the transition to the next stage of life doesn't happen for more and more, and we just stay (functionally) children into the thirties, forties, or later, after which it's too late for more than half of us. Not sure how seriously I take this. :)

perryizgr8 3y ago

Yeah most people saying they can't afford to have children probably are in the richest 10% of the world's population. They can absolutely afford a child.

bombcar 3y ago
The cost they don't want to pay isn't monetary, it's time/commitment. And to avoid the time/commitment, you need lots and lots of money, and even then you still lose control of your life; suddenly there's other forces that require you to do things you don't want to do.
- perryizgr8 3y ago
  That's my point. It is not a monetary issue. It is a matter of priorities. People should just say that having children is not high on their priority list, instead we get a bunch of excuses (cost of living, global warming, etc.).

LapsangGuzzler 3y ago

True, but we're seeing a measurable decline of standard of living in the west, which forces people to make sacrifices in their lifestyles. Millions of Americans are waking up to the fact that they're gonna be worse off in adulthood than their parents were and one of the easiest ways to try to maintain their standard of living is not to have children. It's not just about how many raised kids in squalor, it's about how many people are experiencing socioeconomic decline. It's also purely anecdotal, but anti-natalist sentiment is very much on the rise in my community. I meet more and more people concerned that bringing a child into the world now means condemning them to suffer the worst consequences of climate change. No idea if this is represented at all on a global scale, but it's very present in my area.

chii 3y ago
> seeing a measurable decline of standard of living in the west is this really true? With the exception of the covid lockdown causing issues, i've found that i've been able to acquire all my necessary material needs, and more. It is true that my purchasing power is being clawed away via inflation, but this is counteracted by wage increases and investment returns (on average).
- LapsangGuzzler 3y ago
  America has far and away the highest poverty rate of the modern world[0], there's a very strong economic divide in America. I earn about $175K as a software engineer, which easily puts me into the top 1% of income earners in my generation. Just because life is good to me does not mean that I reflect the average lifestyle in America. 0: https://confrontingpoverty.org/poverty-facts-and-myths/americas-poor-are-worse-off-than-elsewhere/ https://confrontingpoverty.org/poverty-facts-and-myths/ameri...
  - thunderbird120 3y ago
    > In this table, poverty is being measured as the percent of the population falling below one half of a particular country’s median household income. That is a measure of income inequality... not poverty. Here is a measure of inflation adjusted household income over time for to address the original point[1]. People are not getting poorer [1]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

seer 3y ago

Thing is, the marginal cost of kids has shot through the roof. It’s no longer a sensible thing to do - in the horrible times you mention, children were investments - you spend ~ 10years raising them, and after that they worked for you, almost free labor. And a lot more things required labor to function. Now, kids are almost all cost, as the government / society itself captures their economic output, and doesn’t give enough back to the family that did the work to raise them. So now you have kids because you want to, and its no longer rational act, more emotional one.

robbomacrae 3y ago

Counter point... or more of a theory.. everyone who wants to have a child wants to be as good as, or a better parent than their own, and want to provide for their children's childhood as good as, or better than their own. I don't have references to back this up but it seems to be the case with most parents or aspiring parents I talk to. In the western world we compare ourselves to our parents who bought their 1st houses when they were in their twenties.. something we are less likely to achieve even with the same status job until much later on.

xeromal 3y ago
I think it's a valid argument, but I don't think it's particularly strong. Humans are driven to have children and have for our entire history.
- slaw 3y ago
  Humans are driven to have sex and with easily available contraceptives, having sex and having children are no longer tightly related.

seydor 3y ago

Maybe,horrible times is the solution