We have to think of nuclear war and pandemics as extinction risks even though we probably can find ways to avoid completely dying out, because if we really fail

We have to think of nuclear war and pandemics as extinction risks even though we probably can find ways to avoid completely dying out, because if we really fail we can still die out. Similar thing with AI. But actually probably more dangerous. Maybe Schneier isn't as smart as everyone thinks he is. GPT-4 is already almost human level intelligence. (Notice that I did not say that it was alive or that it was a simulation of a person with all of the other human characteristics). All it takes is for them to keep making computers faster and more efficient like they have been since it started. Within five years or less it will be thinking 100 times faster than humans (and quite possibly double the IQ). Then someone people gives a large group of them an overly broad instruction like "take control". GPT-4 is truly an effective problem solver and similar systems will be available within a few years that are orders of magnitude faster. That is an extinction risk. You cannot compete with it as a human. For this type of system, the human activities or inputs are so slow that they seem to be frozen. People may think that computing progress has ended or slowed down or something and it can't get that much faster, but for starters this is a very specific application which has room for optimization in hardware, software, and AI models. And there are entirely new compute-in-memory paradigms coming (a new S curves).