4 ms·

No, it’s much darker. It means if you’re skilled the gap between you and unskilled just got much much smaller. Think about that…

qup 3y ago
That's awesome. Let's make progress. Their success is not your downfall.
- tsunamifury 3y ago
  I really love your optimism here, but as an ex-executive I can see how this will be used -- to put wage pressure on any skilled/senior leaders by inflowing a churn of unskilled to replace them. I don't think you grasp how this will play out over multi-game
  - scrollaway 3y ago
    Different companies and executives will play this out differently. Some will replace their unskilled workers, some will fire everyone, some will ignore AI altogether. What matters is which of these strategies will result in actual success. This is honestly far too hard to tell at this point.
    - tsunamifury 3y ago
      You can apply the law of "power wins" I think to this pretty well. It will be initially be used to put labor in a lower position and expand ownership margins -- until that creates an opposing power scenario. Which maybe be sooner... or could be later. Hopefully before robots become real, because otherwise it will be never. I'll say here, I've spoken to and spent time with a few well known billionaires and I'd say deep down, they are exterminists no matter how nice a face they try to put on it. Over time they just come to believe most people don't matter at all. Its really dark, and the sooner we come to terms with that the better.
      - visarga 3y ago
        Software has been cannibalising itself for 70 years, and yet look and behold - being a programmer is still one of the best paid jobs. I don't believe a simple 20-50% boost for intermediate users is going to change things much.
        cudgy 3y ago
        70 years? I’d argue that programming has only recently (last 10-20 years) become a mainstream source of high paying jobs. Before that it was relatively low paying or inaccessible/undesirable to most people. Recent simplification through the movement of much CRUD work toward web frameworks has made it more accessible.
  - sitkack 3y ago
    As others have remarked, it allows them to be marginally more skilled in areas where they are lacking. I am expert level in a couple domains, but now I am advanced novice to intermediate in a whole lot more due GenAI. I can now hang with junior folks in their domain, not mine. While I agree with your assessment on wage pressure, the folks this is going to hurt the most are the new graduates that don't have the knowledge or experience. Their competition just got a whole lot stiffer. It benefits two groups the most, someone with literally zero experience and experts.
    - tsunamifury 3y ago
      Wouldn't most of labor skilled or unskilled, be somewherever in that middle area that gets way more pressurized?
      - sitkack 3y ago
        Yes, I think that middle section will see enormous pressure from below (bootcamp folks probably doubled their productivity) and from above (skilled folks can roll up their sleeves rather than delegate).
jiggawatts 3y ago
That’s what Google did, supposedly for “everyone”. In practice, my coworkers call me to find and then explain solutions to them. I don’t see this changing with AIs. Having a “super Google” is great… for people already comfortable with such tools and capable of using them. My coworkers will now ask me to ask the AI… on their… behalf. OMG! I’m going to turn into Lieutenant Tawny Madison: https://chat.openai.com/share/0efbca4d-9e33-4af0-9ed6-2f8821c57201 https://chat.openai.com/share/0efbca4d-9e33-4af0-9ed6-2f8821...
masswerk 3y ago
That's the way with about any real leap in productivity applications. About every time you add "smart" to something, you take from skilled domain experts. Just think of when Photoshop 4.0 added layers and now composing was for everyone, not just for those venturing into channel operations… (To be fair, here, things got much easier even for those who managed previously without this.)

qup 3y ago

That's awesome. Let's make progress. Their success is not your downfall.

tsunamifury 3y ago
I really love your optimism here, but as an ex-executive I can see how this will be used -- to put wage pressure on any skilled/senior leaders by inflowing a churn of unskilled to replace them. I don't think you grasp how this will play out over multi-game
- scrollaway 3y ago
  Different companies and executives will play this out differently. Some will replace their unskilled workers, some will fire everyone, some will ignore AI altogether. What matters is which of these strategies will result in actual success. This is honestly far too hard to tell at this point.
  - tsunamifury 3y ago
    You can apply the law of "power wins" I think to this pretty well. It will be initially be used to put labor in a lower position and expand ownership margins -- until that creates an opposing power scenario. Which maybe be sooner... or could be later. Hopefully before robots become real, because otherwise it will be never. I'll say here, I've spoken to and spent time with a few well known billionaires and I'd say deep down, they are exterminists no matter how nice a face they try to put on it. Over time they just come to believe most people don't matter at all. Its really dark, and the sooner we come to terms with that the better.
    - visarga 3y ago
      Software has been cannibalising itself for 70 years, and yet look and behold - being a programmer is still one of the best paid jobs. I don't believe a simple 20-50% boost for intermediate users is going to change things much.
      - cudgy 3y ago
        70 years? I’d argue that programming has only recently (last 10-20 years) become a mainstream source of high paying jobs. Before that it was relatively low paying or inaccessible/undesirable to most people. Recent simplification through the movement of much CRUD work toward web frameworks has made it more accessible.
- sitkack 3y ago
  As others have remarked, it allows them to be marginally more skilled in areas where they are lacking. I am expert level in a couple domains, but now I am advanced novice to intermediate in a whole lot more due GenAI. I can now hang with junior folks in their domain, not mine. While I agree with your assessment on wage pressure, the folks this is going to hurt the most are the new graduates that don't have the knowledge or experience. Their competition just got a whole lot stiffer. It benefits two groups the most, someone with literally zero experience and experts.
  - tsunamifury 3y ago
    Wouldn't most of labor skilled or unskilled, be somewherever in that middle area that gets way more pressurized?
    - sitkack 3y ago
      Yes, I think that middle section will see enormous pressure from below (bootcamp folks probably doubled their productivity) and from above (skilled folks can roll up their sleeves rather than delegate).

jiggawatts 3y ago

That’s what Google did, supposedly for “everyone”. In practice, my coworkers call me to find and then explain solutions to them. I don’t see this changing with AIs. Having a “super Google” is great… for people already comfortable with such tools and capable of using them. My coworkers will now ask me to ask the AI… on their… behalf. OMG! I’m going to turn into Lieutenant Tawny Madison: https://chat.openai.com/share/0efbca4d-9e33-4af0-9ed6-2f8821c57201 https://chat.openai.com/share/0efbca4d-9e33-4af0-9ed6-2f8821...

masswerk 3y ago

That's the way with about any real leap in productivity applications. About every time you add "smart" to something, you take from skilled domain experts. Just think of when Photoshop 4.0 added layers and now composing was for everyone, not just for those venturing into channel operations… (To be fair, here, things got much easier even for those who managed previously without this.)