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17th fatal Tesla crash while the systems were engaged since June 2021 So about 8.5 / year. Given the number of Teslas on the road, and the total number of road

17th fatal Tesla crash while the systems were engaged since June 2021 So about 8.5 / year. Given the number of Teslas on the road, and the total number of road fatalities, that doesn’t seem like all that many.

dgrin91 3y ago
This is probably a large underestimate given that Tesla tends to be very aggressive on not sharing all their data and not calling things autopilot related when they probably should be. Than being said, even if we 10x this I would guess that number is still pretty low. The comparison should not be relative to 0, the comparison should be relative to number of equivalent human driving hours. How many teslas on the road are out there, how many hours/miles have they driven, and how does that stack up to average human driving in comparison? Obviously those stats can be gamed, but I'm generally inclined to say that as long as there isn't some crazy increase then its a step in the right direction.
- bmcahren 3y ago
  > We also receive a crash alert anytime a crash is reported to us from the fleet, which may include data about whether Autopilot was active at the time of impact. > To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact, and we count all crashes in which the incident alert indicated an airbag or other active restraint deployed. (Our crash statistics are not based on sample data sets or estimates.) > In practice, this correlates to nearly any crash at about 12 mph (20 kph) or above, depending on the crash forces generated. We do not differentiate based on the type of crash or fault (For example, more than 35% of all Autopilot crashes occur when the Tesla vehicle is rear-ended by another vehicle). In this way, we are confident that the statistics we share unquestionably show the benefits of Autopilot. Every answer to your questions is on the link below: Source: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
  - BoorishBears 3y ago
    The Tesla safety report has never been a good-faith attempt at communicating their stats. They compare Teslas to every single other vehicle on the road. The average Tesla owner is already in a demographic that would have dramatically lower accident rates than the average. The average age of a Tesla vehicle also dramatically lowers it. Then you add in the fact AP is skewed towards highway use and disengages in tricky situations... Before you even factor in AP you're already starting with the picture Tesla wants to paint.
- taylodl 3y ago
  > the comparison should be relative to number of equivalent human driving hours Not necessarily, this would be true if autopilot made the same kinds of mistakes that humans do - these are the kinds of mistakes that other humans, e.g. other drivers, motorcyclists, bicyclists, pedestrians, are on the lookout for. That is to say we're very experienced with the kinds of mistakes humans make and the conditions in which they make them, and so we can defend ourselves against them. If autopilot is making all-new mistakes under totally different conditions then it removes that ability to defend ones self and lead to even more issues. We humans have a keen sense for how other humans will react in a given situation.
  - dgrin91 3y ago
    Do we have the ability to defend ourselves? How do you defend against a drunk driver? Lots of people die to random car crashes because they aren't able to defend themselves. The promising thing I've always thought about self driving is that while it may make stupid, unpredictable mistakes (drive into flashing firetruck at 60mph) it does this less than a typically human driver would make typical human casualty inflicting mistakes. Moreover we can build & improve to eliminate firetruck ramming; we unfortunately have not been able to eliminate drunk driving.
    - taylodl 3y ago
      We've been unwilling to eliminate drunk driving. Breathalyzer ignition lock? Problem solved. Self-driving cars are an extremely poor solution (complexity and cost) to solve this simple problem. People have fought tooth and nail to enable drunk driving - and they've won. Just like they're fighting and winning for mass shootings. Even so, drunk drivers are largely predictable. People know when it's not a good time to be on the streets.
nickthegreek 3y ago
We don't know how many Tesla's on the road have purchased the optional FSD package. You would need to use that number, not the number of Teslas on the road.
- tahoeskibum 3y ago
  This was an old 2014 model which had old HW1 Mobileye based package. It cannot have FSD.
jimnotgym 3y ago
I don't know if that is a lot or not. 17th whilst self driving engaged sounds like a lot more common, not all Tesla's have self driving, not every trip has it engaged.
- recursive 3y ago
  > not all Tesla's have self driving For instance, this Tesla didn't have self-driving features.
  - penjelly 3y ago
    they still refer to it as "autopilot" https://youtubetranscript.com/?v=FZ6lZJWL_Xk&t=378 https://youtubetranscript.com/?v=FZ6lZJWL_Xk&t=378
Gordonjcp 3y ago
Also given that Tesla can only use "Autopilot" in conditions where human drivers generally don't crash, either.
- tensor 3y ago
  Humans generally don't crash on the highway? You must live on a different planet. Every single day humans are doing absolutely batshit insane maneuvers on the highway. I can't recall a single time it's been a Tesla on autopilot that has done something that scared the shit out of me. It's really astonishing we let humans drive at all.
  - Gordonjcp 3y ago
    And yet most of the accidents you see don't happen on motorways. All the cars are travelling in the same direction at the same speed, it's practically impossible to crash. A huge part of the problem is that Americans can't drive. They have no training and absolutely atrocious practical driving skills.
pengaru 3y ago
There's no shortage of Tesla owners in topical HN threads saying they never/rarely use Autopilot for any number of reasons, ranging from it's bat-shit crazy to phantom-braking still being a frequent occurrence. So you really need the number of Teslas being operated by autonomous functionality, not the gross number of Teslas on the road, to make any kind of judgement here. And even within that set, if you had the data, it needs to be normalized for operating in ideal conditions vs. regular cars in ideal conditions. The autonomous problems have seen enough coverage that everyone is aware at this point. Even Joe Rogan has talked about not really using those features of his Tesla multiple times on his very popular JRE podcast. What proportion of Tesla owners have the cars just because they're the fastest and most social-statusy EVs on the market, despite the autonomous b.s. and just ignore those features?

dgrin91 3y ago

This is probably a large underestimate given that Tesla tends to be very aggressive on not sharing all their data and not calling things autopilot related when they probably should be. Than being said, even if we 10x this I would guess that number is still pretty low. The comparison should not be relative to 0, the comparison should be relative to number of equivalent human driving hours. How many teslas on the road are out there, how many hours/miles have they driven, and how does that stack up to average human driving in comparison? Obviously those stats can be gamed, but I'm generally inclined to say that as long as there isn't some crazy increase then its a step in the right direction.

bmcahren 3y ago
> We also receive a crash alert anytime a crash is reported to us from the fleet, which may include data about whether Autopilot was active at the time of impact. > To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact, and we count all crashes in which the incident alert indicated an airbag or other active restraint deployed. (Our crash statistics are not based on sample data sets or estimates.) > In practice, this correlates to nearly any crash at about 12 mph (20 kph) or above, depending on the crash forces generated. We do not differentiate based on the type of crash or fault (For example, more than 35% of all Autopilot crashes occur when the Tesla vehicle is rear-ended by another vehicle). In this way, we are confident that the statistics we share unquestionably show the benefits of Autopilot. Every answer to your questions is on the link below: Source: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
- BoorishBears 3y ago
  The Tesla safety report has never been a good-faith attempt at communicating their stats. They compare Teslas to every single other vehicle on the road. The average Tesla owner is already in a demographic that would have dramatically lower accident rates than the average. The average age of a Tesla vehicle also dramatically lowers it. Then you add in the fact AP is skewed towards highway use and disengages in tricky situations... Before you even factor in AP you're already starting with the picture Tesla wants to paint.
taylodl 3y ago
> the comparison should be relative to number of equivalent human driving hours Not necessarily, this would be true if autopilot made the same kinds of mistakes that humans do - these are the kinds of mistakes that other humans, e.g. other drivers, motorcyclists, bicyclists, pedestrians, are on the lookout for. That is to say we're very experienced with the kinds of mistakes humans make and the conditions in which they make them, and so we can defend ourselves against them. If autopilot is making all-new mistakes under totally different conditions then it removes that ability to defend ones self and lead to even more issues. We humans have a keen sense for how other humans will react in a given situation.
- dgrin91 3y ago
  Do we have the ability to defend ourselves? How do you defend against a drunk driver? Lots of people die to random car crashes because they aren't able to defend themselves. The promising thing I've always thought about self driving is that while it may make stupid, unpredictable mistakes (drive into flashing firetruck at 60mph) it does this less than a typically human driver would make typical human casualty inflicting mistakes. Moreover we can build & improve to eliminate firetruck ramming; we unfortunately have not been able to eliminate drunk driving.
  - taylodl 3y ago
    We've been unwilling to eliminate drunk driving. Breathalyzer ignition lock? Problem solved. Self-driving cars are an extremely poor solution (complexity and cost) to solve this simple problem. People have fought tooth and nail to enable drunk driving - and they've won. Just like they're fighting and winning for mass shootings. Even so, drunk drivers are largely predictable. People know when it's not a good time to be on the streets.

nickthegreek 3y ago

We don't know how many Tesla's on the road have purchased the optional FSD package. You would need to use that number, not the number of Teslas on the road.

tahoeskibum 3y ago
This was an old 2014 model which had old HW1 Mobileye based package. It cannot have FSD.

jimnotgym 3y ago

I don't know if that is a lot or not. 17th whilst self driving engaged sounds like a lot more common, not all Tesla's have self driving, not every trip has it engaged.

recursive 3y ago
> not all Tesla's have self driving For instance, this Tesla didn't have self-driving features.
- penjelly 3y ago
  they still refer to it as "autopilot" https://youtubetranscript.com/?v=FZ6lZJWL_Xk&t=378 https://youtubetranscript.com/?v=FZ6lZJWL_Xk&t=378

Gordonjcp 3y ago

Also given that Tesla can only use "Autopilot" in conditions where human drivers generally don't crash, either.

tensor 3y ago
Humans generally don't crash on the highway? You must live on a different planet. Every single day humans are doing absolutely batshit insane maneuvers on the highway. I can't recall a single time it's been a Tesla on autopilot that has done something that scared the shit out of me. It's really astonishing we let humans drive at all.
- Gordonjcp 3y ago
  And yet most of the accidents you see don't happen on motorways. All the cars are travelling in the same direction at the same speed, it's practically impossible to crash. A huge part of the problem is that Americans can't drive. They have no training and absolutely atrocious practical driving skills.

pengaru 3y ago

There's no shortage of Tesla owners in topical HN threads saying they never/rarely use Autopilot for any number of reasons, ranging from it's bat-shit crazy to phantom-braking still being a frequent occurrence. So you really need the number of Teslas being operated by autonomous functionality, not the gross number of Teslas on the road, to make any kind of judgement here. And even within that set, if you had the data, it needs to be normalized for operating in ideal conditions vs. regular cars in ideal conditions. The autonomous problems have seen enough coverage that everyone is aware at this point. Even Joe Rogan has talked about not really using those features of his Tesla multiple times on his very popular JRE podcast. What proportion of Tesla owners have the cars just because they're the fastest and most social-statusy EVs on the market, despite the autonomous b.s. and just ignore those features?