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No, because if China is actually starved of semiconductors, they will be forceful in taking Taiwan.

• nradov 3y ago
  China has no chance of taking the Taiwanese semiconductor factories intact, and even if they did the factories can't operate without support from foreign vendors like ASML. China is trying to build a complete indigenous semiconductor supply chain without those foreign dependencies; they will probably succeed eventually but it will take many years.
  • senttoschool 3y ago
    My point is that if China is starved of semiconductors, China is going to try to make it so for the US as well. Yes, I know the US still has Intel and Micron but TSMC is significantly more valuable.
    • nradov 3y ago
      The US has some exposure there, but steps are being taken to both strengthen Taiwan's defenses and build more domestic semiconductor manufacturing capacity. China still doesn't have enough amphibious lift capacity to really take Taiwan, but they could wreck it with long-range strikes. https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/09/06/us-approves-11-billion-taiwan-arms-sale/ https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2022/09/06/us-approves-... https://www.pwc.com/us/en/library/chips-act.html https://www.pwc.com/us/en/library/chips-act.html