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What? ChatGPT 4 can already pass the bar exam and is fluent in every language. It is super intelligent. Today. No human can do that, the system is here, and so

by ericb 3y ago

What? ChatGPT 4 can already pass the bar exam and is fluent in every language. It is super intelligent. Today. No human can do that, the system is here, and so is an architecture. As for the existential risk, assume nothing other than evil humans will use it to do evil human stuff. Most technology iteratively gets better, so there's no big leaps of imagination required to imagine that we're equipping bad humans with super-human, super-intelligent assistants.

ilaksh 3y ago
Right. And it would be a complete break from the history of computing if human-level GPT doesn't get 100+ times faster in the next few years. Certainly within five years. All it takes is for someone to give an AI that thinks 100 times faster than humans an overly broad goal. Then the only way to counteract it is with another AI with overly broad goals. And you can't tell it to stop and wait for humans to check it's decisions, because while it is waiting for you to come back from your lunch break to try to figure out what it is asking, the competitor's AI did the equivalent of a week of work. So then even if at some level people are "in control" of the AIs, practically speaking they are spectators. And there is no way you will be able to prevent all people from creating fully autonomous lifelike AI with its own goals and instincts. Combine that with hyperspeed and you are truly at it's mercy.
- mrtranscendence 3y ago
  Computational power does not grow at the rate of over 100x within the span of “a few years”. If that were the case we’d have vastly more powerful kit by now.
  - ilaksh 3y ago
    I didn't quite say that. The efficiency of this very specific application absolutely can and almost certainly will increase by more than one order of magnitude within four years. It's got a massive new investment and research focus, is a very specific application, and room for improvement in AI model, software, and hardware. Even if we have to "cheat" to get to 100 times performance in less than five years the effect will be the same. For example, there might be a way to accelerate something like the Tree of Thoughts in hardware. So if the hardware can't actually speed up by that much, the effectiveness of the system still has increased greatly.
computerphage 3y ago
Neither ChatGPT nor GPT-4 pose an existential risk nor are they superintelligent in the sense that Eliezer or Bostrom mean. I say this as a "doomer" who buys the whole argument about AI X-risk.

by ericb 3y ago

ilaksh 3y ago

Right. And it would be a complete break from the history of computing if human-level GPT doesn't get 100+ times faster in the next few years. Certainly within five years. All it takes is for someone to give an AI that thinks 100 times faster than humans an overly broad goal. Then the only way to counteract it is with another AI with overly broad goals. And you can't tell it to stop and wait for humans to check it's decisions, because while it is waiting for you to come back from your lunch break to try to figure out what it is asking, the competitor's AI did the equivalent of a week of work. So then even if at some level people are "in control" of the AIs, practically speaking they are spectators. And there is no way you will be able to prevent all people from creating fully autonomous lifelike AI with its own goals and instincts. Combine that with hyperspeed and you are truly at it's mercy.

mrtranscendence 3y ago
Computational power does not grow at the rate of over 100x within the span of “a few years”. If that were the case we’d have vastly more powerful kit by now.
- ilaksh 3y ago
  I didn't quite say that. The efficiency of this very specific application absolutely can and almost certainly will increase by more than one order of magnitude within four years. It's got a massive new investment and research focus, is a very specific application, and room for improvement in AI model, software, and hardware. Even if we have to "cheat" to get to 100 times performance in less than five years the effect will be the same. For example, there might be a way to accelerate something like the Tree of Thoughts in hardware. So if the hardware can't actually speed up by that much, the effectiveness of the system still has increased greatly.

computerphage 3y ago

Neither ChatGPT nor GPT-4 pose an existential risk nor are they superintelligent in the sense that Eliezer or Bostrom mean. I say this as a "doomer" who buys the whole argument about AI X-risk.