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Nvidia is now a $1T company
- ilrwbwrkhv 3y agoGood stuff. Rode it all the way up from 2017 and now I will sell.
- hnthrowaway0328 3y agoCongratulations~~
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 3y agoCongrats! I rode their last surge and sold near the top as well.
- iamnotarobotman 3y agoGreat news for another new $1TN dollar company, however in [0] "Market cap stories (and price fluctuation stories generally) mostly aren't substantive enough to make interesting HN threads. They just turn into generic discussions about the underlying company or currency or whatever, and those are too repetitive to be interesting." This one is no exception, with such threads should also apply to this one. Just like it did with Tesla and Facebook about them reaching $1TN. Right? It is essentially a 'horse race story'. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28990451 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28990451
- alberth 3y agoWow, 213x P/E ratio. To put this into context with other large tech companies: P/E MARKET CAP Salesforce 1,036x $0.2T AMD 519x $0.2T NVIDIA 213x $1.0T Amazon 293x $1.25T Microsoft 35x $2.4T Meta/FB 33x $0.7T Apple 30x $2.7T Google 27x $1.5T TSMC 16x $0.4T Samsung 10x $0.3T EDIT: "P/E" ratio is the Market Cap "Price" / Earnings the company generates. E.g. Samsung is generating $30B in earnings (not revenue, earnings), investors are valuing Samsung to be a $300B company. That means investors see Samsung is worth 10x P/E
- malpanim 3y agoWhy TSMC is having such a low PE. Aren't they are the one producing all these chips other than Intel?
- paddw 3y agoLots of geopolitical risk
- mgh2 3y agoPpl are so easily manipulated by media and hype. TSMC has low margins and probably bc they are not involved in the application side
- lotsofpulp 3y agoWhich other hardware manufacturer has profit margins like these? https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSM/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing/profit-margins https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSM/taiwan-semicon...
- dghlsakjg 3y agoThe very real possibility of them being the prize in a war between superpowers has to figure into that price…
- baq 3y agoFabs get blown up in any Taiwan invasion by the losing side whoever it will be. The only way to win is not to play.
- red-iron-pine 3y agoChina is counting on the US and India, et al, pushing for fabs elsewhere. Once the fabs are out, there is less impetus for the US (plus Korea, Japan, etc.) to put a lot on the line to save Taiwan.
- EscapeFromNY 3y agoSooner or later we'll have to pull Facebook out of FAANG. Nvidia seems like a worthy replacement.
- sdfghswe 3y agoNAANG GNANA ANGNA
- boeingUH60 3y agoGANNA
- anthk 3y agoGANAN. 'They win/they earn' in Spanish. Sadly.
- theironhammer 3y agoOh I like this.
- flak48 3y agoNANGA
- selimthegrim 3y agoYou clearly don't speak Hindi.
- flak48 3y agoMaybe I clearly do :)
- selimthegrim 3y agoZabardast!
- endisneigh 3y agothe fact that NVDA has a larger market cap than basically all other chip manufacturers combined is hilarious. big TSLA energy here
- candiddevmike 3y agoIMO, NVDA is in a similar position to VMware among practitioners--folks hate their pricing and will gladly jump ship to whatever is cheaper with feature parity. They've burned their brand by charging so much and doing licensing fuckery to squeeze as much as possible. Folks are only staying because CUDA has no equivalent (for now).
- intelVISA 3y ago> Folks are only staying because CUDA has no equivalent (for now). Tempting, you know...
- paulmd 3y ago> folks hate their pricing and will gladly jump ship to whatever is cheaper with feature parity. ... Folks are only staying because CUDA has no equivalent (for now). ah yes, consistent long-term delivery of realized customer value, the shakiest of moats
- candiddevmike 3y agoWhen most folks are using CUDA indirectly via library abstractions, swapping it out eventually becomes easy and their moat fades away. CUDA alternatives are innovating pretty fast, and the ever present threat of TPUs and things like Apple's Neural Engine aren't helping them. They should've been building better partnerships and giving more margin away for integration and OEM instead of being greedy. But that wouldn't have juiced their short term profits.
- st380752143 3y ago>> CUDA alternatives are innovating pretty fast What's the alternatives?
- dvhedvsa 3y agoMaybe someone can explain. Why hasn’t AMD come out invested $10 billion, poached the necessary engineers from Nvidia, Facebook etc and expanded into the AI space? How much of an advantage does nvidia have when it comes to cuda ?
- mtoner23 3y agocuda is the main advantage nvidia has over amd in this space. amd gpus are close enough to nvidia gpus these days that one should be able to buy either. except for the software support and community. so it makes it 10x harder to get something ML started on an amd GPU. so everyone ahs to buy nvidia
- berkeleyjunk 3y agoI am not an expert in this space but dabble a bit. This comment is spot on. AMD's software is pretty bad and NVDA has captured all the developer attention with CUDA and is the basis for lot of the frameworks people use. It is not a trivial advantage to break. I do wish good luck to AMD.
- actualwitch 3y agoThey are expanding into AI space, with Xilinx FPGA accelerators in next ryzens. https://www.notebookcheck.net/AMD-details-4-nm-Zen-4-Ryzen-7040-Phoenix-HS-APUs-with-integrated-Xilinx-AI-smarts-alongside-refreshed-Zen-3-and-Zen3-offerings.679093.0.html https://www.notebookcheck.net/AMD-details-4-nm-Zen-4-Ryzen-7...
- gniv 3y agoI have the same question about Google's TPUs (ie, why is Google not selling them, as opposed to just access to them).
- retskrad 3y agoSpeaking of trillion dollar companies, how is Apple the most valuable one? Their devices are dumb as bricks. Apple is do bad at AI that they can't even get autocorrect right on the iPhone. They are completely out of their element in the age of LLM's. Microsoft's business was bulletproof before investing in OpenAI but now it should be more valuable than Apple.
- gabipurcaru 3y agopeople buy their stuff.
- mtoner23 3y agobecause they make so much money so much more than other companies
- hoosieree 3y ago> how is Apple the most valuable one You misspelled Saudi Aramco.
- lotsofpulp 3y agoSaudi Aramco is currently multiple hundreds of millions behind Apple and Microsoft. https://companiesmarketcap.com/ https://companiesmarketcap.com/
- hoosieree 3y agoI stand corrected, thanks.
- berkeleyjunk 3y agoPretty straightforward. The current value of the company is the Net Present Value of all the future expected cash flows. Basically you can take the money Apple will make in 2024, 2025, 2026 ... and reduce them to today's values by discounting with the interest rates: pretty much divide by (1+r)^n. Since Apple already makes a ton of money each year it is valued pretty high. Nvidia on the other hand has to GROW its earnings a LOT to justify its valuations.
- manuel_w 3y agoIt makes me a bit sad to hear NVidia is that successful. I'm working with their Jetson SoM product line professionally and was suffering from their bad support on several occasions. I hoped that their bad support would translate into them falling back.
- mercurialsolo 3y agoI would be that Nvidia is underpriced by the market. AI apps are still in the infancy and we are just gonna see more demand emerge.
- Sohcahtoa82 3y agoBased on P/E, I don't think so. There's already has a LOT of expected growth priced in. We're in an AI bubble. AI has a lot of incredible uses, but eventually the bubble will burst and the market will recognize places where AI doesn't really belong.
- goosinmouse 3y agoForward P/E is 51x, net income forecast CAGR (5y) 60.3%. Thats why its a trillion dollar company right now
- vkdelta 3y agoSee one other small cap company benefiting out of this nvda upside because of AI and GPUs sale. SuperMicro(SMCI) is up 10x is last 2 years with most growth recently.
- q1w2 3y agoWhy? Do they manufacture their GPUs?
- mattnewton 3y agoNo, they sell all the components and assembly around the gpu to turn it into a high performance server
- q1w2 3y agoI wish I had looked at them earlier. PE ratio is still low, but I'm not sure they'll capitalize on the AI trend... ...and it's so hard to buy shares that are up 10x! What do you think?
- partiallypro 3y agoI've sold my stock, so it will obviously keep going higher. That being said, I don't see how it's a sustainable price, it has massive P/E and Price to Sales ratio. In the past when a stock finally hits the $1 or $2 trillion mark the stock will give it up relatively quickly before it finally reclaims it for good. AI is the new "blockchain" in terms of the level of hype it is getting where every company now can mention it and get a 5% jump in their stock price, to me that means we're getting closer to a saturation in the hype.
- Sohcahtoa82 3y ago> AI is the new "blockchain" in terms of the level of hype In terms of hype, I'd agree. The difference is that AI is useful.
- partiallypro 3y agoThat is obvious, I just mean that many companies that don't have, and won't have, any AI competencies are now mentioning AI in their earnings calls. I saw someone had done a chart of earnings calls that mention AI and it has skyrocketed. Also a new trend of stuffing GPT and LLMs into apps that don't need it is already in the pipeline, people comment it on HN all the time.
- Sohcahtoa82 3y agoSounds like a great opportunity for shorting a stock. They announce doing something with AI, their stock skyrockets, the new AI features don't noticeably increase revenue while their expenses go up considerably, stock drops. Profit.
- pyrrhotech 3y agoIt may continue up to 1.25T or so, but the current price is absurdly overvalued at 37x sales. Even with the stellar guidance they gave, at best, the company is worth 0.5T. It may not go down that much, but folks buying here for the long term are in for disappointment.
- henry2023 3y agoTime to purchase some puts
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 3y agoWhat happens when TSMC wants more money or Intel enters the bidding war for already limited fab space?
- klelatti 3y agoI did a rough calculation and came up with a current value of $80bn for Nvidia's offer for Arm based on the current Nvidia share price. An expensive regulatory loss for Masa given Arm will probably float for a lot less. Of course had the takeover gone ahead then its likely that Nvidia would be even more valuable - unless you take the view that Arm would have been a distraction for Nvidia.
- compumike 3y agoTotal Real Returns Chart for NVDA: https://totalrealreturns.com/s/NVDA https://totalrealreturns.com/s/NVDA (with dividends reinvested and inflation adjusted). It's been a bumpy ride since 1999! Trendline is quite positive but you'd have to have some real conviction to hang on with that volatility. Comparison chart with NVDA in red, TSMC in blue, diversified semiconductor industry ETF in green, AMD in orange: https://totalrealreturns.com/s/NVDA,TSM,SMH,AMD https://totalrealreturns.com/s/NVDA,TSM,SMH,AMD
- JumpinJack_Cash 3y agoIsn't avoiding losing any money the best case scenario for people who buy now? Even for people within the company, the pie is not getting any bigger so the only game in town is to become the best skilled politician to try and increase one's own slice.
- sledgehammers 3y agoLet's break up this company then. Too big.
- BasedAnon 3y agoJust a reminder that various AI algorithms have significant influence over markets to the point that it has by proxy fundamentally changed world culture in significant ways. Everyone looking at the P/E ratio doesn't realize that this isn't simply a speculative bubble. Rather, this is a collective superintelligence bootstrapping itself, the market will just become another data pipeline at that point.
- edoardo-schnell 3y agoAnyone else annoyed by the title not meaning 1 Tera dollars?