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The stock price makes absolutely no sense, but the AI hype is real so I won't be shorting. Just give you a crude metaphor - buying NVDA is like buying a $10 mi
by endisneigh 3y ago
The stock price makes absolutely no sense, but the AI hype is real so I won't be shorting.
Just give you a crude metaphor - buying NVDA is like buying a $10 million dollar house to collect $10,000 in rent a year. The price to earnings is bonkers. This valuation only makes sense if somehow Nvidia is using alien technology that couldn't possible by reproduced in the next two decades by any other company.
- dpflan 3y agoAgreed, the fundamentals are off and drunk on hype. Where else can investors put their money?
- peab 3y agoGoog, Meta? They are by far leading in AI research, and they've both developed their own chip. Apple is also going to come out ahead with their Neural chip - imagine chatGPT and stable diffusion becoming part of the iOS SDK
- haldujai 3y agoMeta has their own chip they actually use? IIRC LLaMA was trained on A100s. Apple is non-viable for LLM workloads.
- amanj41 3y agoI would add MSFT due to their exposure to OpenAI and their very successful previous and upcoming integrations (GH Co-Pilot, Bing revamp, upcoming Excel Co-Pilot etc.)
- dpflan 3y agoYes, I can imagine commoditization of such models. Plus they own their chips/silicon and have billions of devices deployed. I think Apple is one to watch because UX is challenge for AI integration. ChatGPT made UX for LLMs user friendly. Apple's design history is superior to its competitors.
- lostmsu 3y agoTSMC's P/E is under 20. Disclaimer: I hold
- chessgecko 3y agoTSMC is cheap because of the risk of invasion, otherwise they would have a pretty insane valuation already.
- dpflan 3y agoHow is their fab build in AZ going?
- HDThoreaun 3y agoNot incredible I hear, but that could just be Morris trying to get more subsidies.
- YetAnotherNick 3y agoP/E is under 20 is the norm, not the exception. Even companies like meta, apple etc. had pe near 10 for long time.
- lostmsu 3y agoYes, but also TSMC is the chip manufacturer that makes NVidia's GPU compute units.
- Tiktaalik 3y agoYour last point is why it feels to me like the better investment right now is everyone and anyone else that will be working very hard to be at where NVDA is at right now. I suppose the obvious answer here is AMD, but surely there's other minor companies too that could see a huge amount of investment.