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This is the only time in my entire life that I accurately predicted the stock market. About two months ago, I bought three shares of Nvidia stock. I noticed t
by tombert 3y ago
This is the only time in my entire life that I accurately predicted the stock market.
About two months ago, I bought three shares of Nvidia stock. I noticed that no one appears to be doing serious AI/ML research with AMD hardware, and I also noticed that Nvidia's stock hadn't spiked yet with the rise of ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion.
For once I was actually right about something in the stock market...About a dozen more accurate predictions and I'll finally make up the money I lost from cryptocurrency.
- dpflan 3y agoAMD had a price jump on the same date range. Yes NVIDIA is higher but it was already so in absolute terms. - NVIDIA: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj-0eLJjpP_AhXtmGoFHV9DATkQ3ecFegQILhAh&window=5D https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2a... - AMD: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMD:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwinpcDHjpP_AhVRlWoFHcURB4IQ3ecFegQILhAh&window=5D https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMD:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ah...
- tombert 3y agoYeah but I didn't buy AMD stock! Clearly I should have though.
- dpflan 3y agoFor sure, still, congrats on some gains.
- cspada 3y agoAnd NVDA added more than AMDs entire market cap on that day alone, including the gains AMD had.
- gumballindie 3y agoDoesnt that mean that amd has room to grow faster than nvidia since nvidia is already high?
- shrimp_emoji 3y agoThe problem with gamba is that 99% of people quit right before making it big. https://youtu.be/y28Diszaoo4 https://youtu.be/y28Diszaoo4
- jakeinspace 3y agoStill kicking myself for selling the ~20 shares I bought in high school for a mere 100% gain back when the price was $40.
- esotericimpl 3y agoI'm still holding ~600 shares of NVDA from a $1,200 investment back when I thought it was amazing that this company made cards that made Quake 2 look incredible. 300k Investment on $900 dollars.
- tombert 3y agoI suppose it's good you didn't invest in 3dfx then.
- esotericimpl 3y ago[dead]
- tombert 3y agoHey, a win is a win, and profit is profit!
- edgyquant 3y agoI bought 100 shares of AMD for 8$ and sold at 16$ thinking I was a genius
- neogodless 3y agoI bought 1000 shares of AMD for $2.50 and sold them at $4 and thought I was pretty cool.
- mikestew 3y agoYou made a profit, no self-kicking allowed. Otherwise Old Man Mikestew is going to tell us stories about how he rode $STOCK all the way up, didn't sell, and rode it all the way back down to where he bought it, and then watched it dip below that. (Please note that "stories" is plural; slow learner, he is.) Don't be like me: never, never, never, never feel bad about selling shares for a profit. Sell it, go one about your day (IOW, quit looking at $STOCK, you don't own it anymore), take the spouse/SO out for a nice dinner if you made some serious bank. Which reminds me that now might be a good time to unload that NVDA I've been holding. I'm not completely unteachable.
- ksec 3y ago>and I also noticed that Nvidia's stock hadn't spiked yet with the rise of ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion. I think plenty have noticed, But cant get heads around investing in a company with 150x PE.
- qeternity 3y agoThis is because you're looking at trailing P/E instead of forward. NVDA forward P/E is still eye watering, but it's much lower.
- ksec 3y agoForward P/E aren't that much difference. Even when you are expecting 20%+ Net Income YoY. I dont see it being "much lower".
- danielmarkbruce 3y agoPeople are expecting more than 20% net income increase. Whenever a PE looks expensive people are expecting very large increases in E. They aren't just trying to buy expensive stuff.
- yCombLinks 3y agoMany, many people are not looking at PE at all. They are buying into momentum alone, or just buying because it's in the news a lot. AI may change the world, but it's currently a bubble figuring out how to inflate.
- danielmarkbruce 3y agoIt's implied in the above is that it's for anyone paying attention to E. Practically everyone understands that for every conceivable reason there is a buyer buying for that reason somewhere. You may think it's a bubble. It's not obviously a bubble to anyone who understands the current capabilities and how locked in nvidia is with their gpus and cuda. It might end up being expensive in retrospect. It might not.
- itsoktocry 3y ago>I also noticed that Nvidia's stock hadn't spiked yet with the rise of ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion. The stock is was (and is) extremely expensive. Good luck to all buying this things at 30x sales. It doesn't make any sense.
- tombert 3y agoI suppose I could sell now and be happy with my $350 profit...
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- beaned 3y agoBut how funny would it be if AI ends up pumping crypto by it being the money it can manage directly and instantly from your computer?
- dmead 3y agoThis is what kept me from selling my shares when they were down.
- the88doctor 3y agoI hope you sold your Nvidia and locked in those profits.
- kgwgk 3y ago> About two months ago […] and I also noticed that Nvidia's stock hadn't spiked yet with the rise of ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion. Two months ago the stock was 60% up since ChatGPT was released and 150% up since October’s low.
- q1w2 3y agoCorrect. I bought 1000 shares in early Feb, and it's up over 82%. You cannot look at the prior price to make a purchase decision. You have to look at the future projected revenues per share, and apply an industry standard multiple. If you hesitate to buy a stock you like because you feel annoyed that you didn't buy it for cheaper the day/week/month before, you will nerf yourself.
- kgwgk 3y agoNote that this was not a commentary on the convenience -or not- of buying the stock two months ago after it had more than doubled in a few months. It was intended to put the "stock hadn't spiked yet with the rise of ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion" quote into context.
- q1w2 3y agoEven in early Feb, it was up about 50% from 3 months prior.
- adam_arthur 3y agoSo what did your math of: “You have to look at the future projected revenues per share, and apply an industry standard multiple.” Work out to?
- rcme 3y agoJust out of curiosity, what was your crypto hypothesis?
- gumballindie 3y agoI’d also make a bet on the underdogs - for instance amd is only a devent software update away from snatching market share away from nvidia. I am surprised they are not hiring devs like crazy right now to beef up their ai gpu capability.
- intelVISA 3y agoYep as soon as SD dropped I went bullish on NVDA. What's funny is that we on HN know there's no magic inside these chips, a sufficiently smart foundry could easily cripple Nvidia overnight... yet where's the nearest VC fund for ASICs??
- kramerger 3y agoDid you say foundry? Nations (including US and Germany) have tried to out smart TSMC, and yet here we are. If you meant outsmart nvidia, Google’s TPU is already more efficient but a GPU is much more than an efficient design .
- bdcravens 3y agoOf course, even after it's massive decline, it was still up big due to the crypto market. I think crypto shows how mountains can be moved and worlds terraformed via distributed processing power, and AI is just another set of problems to be solved. There's likely many applications that we haven't even dreamed up yet (likely in the biotech space)