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Pfizer was making on average $50b revenue [1] before COVID. And the profits they generated by COVID could well save countless more lives given that their MRNA

Pfizer was making on average $50b revenue [1] before COVID. And the profits they generated by COVID could well save countless more lives given that their MRNA technology is successfully being applied to other use cases. [1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/PFE/pfizer/revenue https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/PFE/pfizer/revenue

pfdietz 3y ago
COVID vaccines are estimated to have saved 20 M lives world wide. In the US, the statistical value of a human life is $9 M, so (extending that to the global population, which is perhaps problematic) the value is $180 T. Making a measly $50 B is chump change in comparison.
- VagueMag 3y ago
  Are the people who were saved by COVID vaccines never going to die from any other cause? I believe the $9M figure is actually just a reference to what the FAA considers a reasonable threshold for imposing a new expense on aircraft manufacturers and airlines in order to make flying safer?
  - pfdietz 3y ago
    So, saving a life has no value unless the person was already otherwise immortal? Ridiculous.
    - VagueMag 3y ago
      No that isn't what I said, and yes it would be just as ridiculous as attributing the same value to preventing a 90 year old nursing home patient from dying of an endemic respiratory virus as we do to preventing deaths in plane crashes.
      - pfdietz 3y ago
        That's going to alter the number by less than an order of magnitude. The benefit still is massively larger than the cost.
        VagueMag 3y ago
        Can you link me to a study which does a reasonable job of attempting to come up with a "Covid deaths prevented by vaccines number" while taking into account the effects of increased seroprevalence, decreased virulence of the virus itself, and the "no more dry tinder" effect?
        pfdietz 3y ago
        The 20M figure was from an estimate in Lancet Infectious Diseases. It was for the first year, not the entire pandemic. https://archive.ph/R5K3r https://archive.ph/R5K3r
    - hammock 3y ago
      Typically the way it is done is by calculating how many years of healthy life you saved
      - bee_rider 3y ago
        Which would, of course, bring the “money saved by vaccines” number down a bit. On the other hand, if we were able to factor in the benefit of milder cases and less long COVID/other side effects, I guess the number would go up a bit. I suspect it is just too complicated for us to work out here.
- bratwurst3000 3y ago
  Where did that 9 million come from? Pls
  - all2 3y ago
    The value is something the US Transportation Admin. has calculated [0]. It's rather cold-blooded, but it makes sense. [0] https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-...
  - H8crilA 3y ago
    It seems a bit excessive, but if you assume someone working from 25 to 65, that is 40 years, at $50k per year then they're "worth" >= $2M to the economy. Really more than that because they will do some things for free to other people, such as family members. So it is probably at the right order of magnitude.
- goodpoint 3y ago
  By your logic there would be nothing wrong in charging $100 or more for an insulin injection. Instead https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/cost-of-insulin-by-country https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/cost-of-i...
  - pfdietz 3y ago
    The problem with insulin, at least in the US, has been elaborations (still under patent protection) on it that are slightly better than the old versions. But doctors have to prescribe the best treatment. There's no quality/cost tradeoff.
nonethewiser 3y ago
Thats a massive difference in absolute and relative terms. $50B and 100%

pfdietz 3y ago

COVID vaccines are estimated to have saved 20 M lives world wide. In the US, the statistical value of a human life is $9 M, so (extending that to the global population, which is perhaps problematic) the value is $180 T. Making a measly $50 B is chump change in comparison.

VagueMag 3y ago
Are the people who were saved by COVID vaccines never going to die from any other cause? I believe the $9M figure is actually just a reference to what the FAA considers a reasonable threshold for imposing a new expense on aircraft manufacturers and airlines in order to make flying safer?
- pfdietz 3y ago
  So, saving a life has no value unless the person was already otherwise immortal? Ridiculous.
  - VagueMag 3y ago
    No that isn't what I said, and yes it would be just as ridiculous as attributing the same value to preventing a 90 year old nursing home patient from dying of an endemic respiratory virus as we do to preventing deaths in plane crashes.
    - pfdietz 3y ago
      That's going to alter the number by less than an order of magnitude. The benefit still is massively larger than the cost.
      - VagueMag 3y ago
        Can you link me to a study which does a reasonable job of attempting to come up with a "Covid deaths prevented by vaccines number" while taking into account the effects of increased seroprevalence, decreased virulence of the virus itself, and the "no more dry tinder" effect?
        pfdietz 3y ago
        The 20M figure was from an estimate in Lancet Infectious Diseases. It was for the first year, not the entire pandemic. https://archive.ph/R5K3r https://archive.ph/R5K3r
  - hammock 3y ago
    Typically the way it is done is by calculating how many years of healthy life you saved
    - bee_rider 3y ago
      Which would, of course, bring the “money saved by vaccines” number down a bit. On the other hand, if we were able to factor in the benefit of milder cases and less long COVID/other side effects, I guess the number would go up a bit. I suspect it is just too complicated for us to work out here.
bratwurst3000 3y ago
Where did that 9 million come from? Pls
- all2 3y ago
  The value is something the US Transportation Admin. has calculated [0]. It's rather cold-blooded, but it makes sense. [0] https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-policy/revised-departmental-guidance-on-valuation-of-a-statistical-life-in-economic-analysis https://www.transportation.gov/office-policy/transportation-...
- H8crilA 3y ago
  It seems a bit excessive, but if you assume someone working from 25 to 65, that is 40 years, at $50k per year then they're "worth" >= $2M to the economy. Really more than that because they will do some things for free to other people, such as family members. So it is probably at the right order of magnitude.
goodpoint 3y ago
By your logic there would be nothing wrong in charging $100 or more for an insulin injection. Instead https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/cost-of-insulin-by-country https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/cost-of-i...
- pfdietz 3y ago
  The problem with insulin, at least in the US, has been elaborations (still under patent protection) on it that are slightly better than the old versions. But doctors have to prescribe the best treatment. There's no quality/cost tradeoff.

nonethewiser 3y ago

Thats a massive difference in absolute and relative terms. $50B and 100%