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Nvidia’s Blowout Forecast Sparks $260B AI Rally
- nabla9 3y agoMust be the largest one-day market cap gain in the US history or very close.
- coffeeshopgoth 3y agoI believe it beat Apple's one from 2022...
- sharemywin 3y agoWhere are the sales going to come from? is there a breakdown?
- nabla9 3y agoData centers are over half of the revenue. Rest is mostly gaming. https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2024/Q1FY24/Rev_by_Mkt_Qtrly_Trend_Q124.pdf https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2024/Q...
- metadat 3y agohttps://archive.today/cmHCP https://archive.today/cmHCP
- sschueller 3y agoGPU makers really lucked out in the last few years. First from the crypto craze and now the AI craze.
- twoodfin 3y agoI dunno if it’s “luck”. Nvidia in particular made a big bet more than a decade ago on GPU’s having strong aptitude for important general computation problems. Turns out they were right.
- scottiebarnes 3y agoAgreed, if you were playing with computer vision and deep learning ~7 years ago, you knew the potential. Nvidia maintained their stranglehold on the software and hardware platforms. OpenAI (and all the great open source research published by others) really blew it open for Nvidia.
- welshwelsh 3y agoThe second seems inevitable from the first. Crypto was when people discovered the massive computational power of GPUs, and AI is when people figured out how to direct this power to do useful work.
- asdff 3y agoThey've been lucking out since the n64 was released.
- yen223 3y agoNot to mention the whole "video game" thing that people really like
- SilverBirch 3y agoI just can't get my head around this. Sure, Nvidia is in a good position with AI and Data Centre. I absolutely think they're in a great position and they're going to sell a lot of chips. But they're trading at 200 times earnings? I don't see how anyone could reasonably justify that. And not only that, but while yes, the earnings are good, surely the AI hype cycle has pulled forward a decent amount of demand, it's a race to acquire enough GPUs, but Nvidia are quite obviously going to be supply constrained. I don't know, I just find it difficult to understand how this price could possibly be justified.
- toomuchtodo 3y agoHype drives narratives which drives valuations. Never underestimate hope or confidence as a multiplier influence.
- huijzer 3y agoMy guess is that retail investors buy without thinking about the price and institutional investors play along. For some reason, retail investors look at the price when buying a car, but not at the price of a company when buying a stock. At the same time, institutional investors focus on the near-term due to misaligned incentives. As Warren Buffet put it in 1985, institutional investors can't wait for a good long-term deal or people will start shouting "swing you bum" [1]. So, the whole system is in some kind of crazy frenzy of pumping up the price until it burst. If it bursts, the institutional investors are the first to leave or obtained their fees. Long story short: I think you understand it perfectly well. Buying Nvidia at a 200 PE ratio makes no sense from a valuation standpoint. [1]: https://youtu.be/T6HHwOoq9M4 https://youtu.be/T6HHwOoq9M4
- meltyness 3y agoI don't think you can say that based on how many A100s you own. Perhaps with more A100s, you could confidently say what the PE should be, rather than simply claiming it's too high.
- thunky 3y ago> For some reason, retail investors look at the price when buying a car, but not at the price of a company when buying a stock. This because these are very different processes from the buyer's perspective: A retail stock investor primarily decides to spend $x on some ticker, and then they divide $x by the current share price to determine how many shares to buy (or they buy fractional shares if their platform supports it). So they can "own" NVDA by paying whatever amount they choose. This is the opposite from buying a car, where the buyer has to pay the full sticker price all or nothing.