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The problem is any plants that would be producing synthetic fuel, fertiliser, etc would all be operating 100% of the year. They wouldn't be an "on demand" plant

The problem is any plants that would be producing synthetic fuel, fertiliser, etc would all be operating 100% of the year. They wouldn't be an "on demand" plant - the economics wouldn't support it (mostly due to capex). With excess wind/solar, pumped hydro would be the storage mechanism, but that clearly doesn't apply when a country has an excess of hydro too!

seanmcdirmid 3y ago
I’m guessing they are referring to liquid hydrogen fuel production. Are those plants so expensive to setup that they have to run 24/7 to make up their investment? Lots of articles say it might eventually be economical, like https://inl.gov/article/using-excess-energy-to-split-water-could-help-make-hydrogen-a-key-player-in-the-clean-energy-future/#:~:text=Clean%20hydrogen%20production,called%20solid%20oxide%20electrolysis%20cells https://inl.gov/article/using-excess-energy-to-split-water-c....
- Retric 3y ago
  There’s several thresholds here. Something that operates 50% of the time can mostly limit things to cheap power. Something that’s viable operated 10% of the time can always get cheap power.
  - Incipient 3y ago
    Do you have any examples of this? I've never come across any major capital project that wasn't designed for 85%+ uptime (and the downtime was simply for maintenance)
    - Retric 3y ago
      A lot of infrastructure isn’t 100% 24/7 even if it gets regular use. Subway systems both shut down for much of the day but they also operate well below maximum rush hour capacity. Many factories, office buildings, and even stores spend the majority of the day/week empty or very close to it. Below that you have schools which often close for several months a year. Entertainment venues even multi billion dollar sports stadiums may spend a lot of time empty. Where possible they aim for year round operations, but often it’s not viable. Below that you have peaking gas electric power plants, as many grids pay for reserve capacity that’s very rarely used. Some extreme cases might not even be used beyond validating it still works in a given year.
      - Incipient 3y ago
        Sure but all of these use cases are entirely different to a production plant, say an oil refinery. A synthetic fuel refinery can operate 24/7, so would be budgeted to do so. I could potentially see a hydrogen "battery"/electrolysis setup absorbing excess power in an affordable way, but I'm just saying to date I haven't seen a single one.
        Retric 3y ago
        Ahh, I was going for Major Capital project. The closest thing to a low utilization fuel refinery is probably some desalination plants. Very high energy costs + wild demand swings means some shutdown quite a bit. There is a few some hydrogen manufacturing plants which only operate on very cheap renewable electricity. However, as I understand it those are currently operated as relatively inexpensive test facilities.
    - adrianN 3y ago
      Gas peaker plants don't run all that often.
- 2000UltraDeluxe 3y ago
  I was thinking more in the line of e-Fuel and the like: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrofuel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrofuel But sure, if hydrogen can be used, stored and then consumed then I can't see why it couldn't be a good idea, assuming demand. The thing about making petrol and diesel is that there's a guaranteed demand for the product, assuming the price is right.
robertlagrant 3y ago
Or a country that doesn't have enough unserviced demand spikes to make pumped hydro useful.

seanmcdirmid 3y ago

I’m guessing they are referring to liquid hydrogen fuel production. Are those plants so expensive to setup that they have to run 24/7 to make up their investment? Lots of articles say it might eventually be economical, like https://inl.gov/article/using-excess-energy-to-split-water-could-help-make-hydrogen-a-key-player-in-the-clean-energy-future/#:~:text=Clean%20hydrogen%20production,called%20solid%20oxide%20electrolysis%20cells https://inl.gov/article/using-excess-energy-to-split-water-c....

Retric 3y ago
There’s several thresholds here. Something that operates 50% of the time can mostly limit things to cheap power. Something that’s viable operated 10% of the time can always get cheap power.
- Incipient 3y ago
  Do you have any examples of this? I've never come across any major capital project that wasn't designed for 85%+ uptime (and the downtime was simply for maintenance)
  - Retric 3y ago
    A lot of infrastructure isn’t 100% 24/7 even if it gets regular use. Subway systems both shut down for much of the day but they also operate well below maximum rush hour capacity. Many factories, office buildings, and even stores spend the majority of the day/week empty or very close to it. Below that you have schools which often close for several months a year. Entertainment venues even multi billion dollar sports stadiums may spend a lot of time empty. Where possible they aim for year round operations, but often it’s not viable. Below that you have peaking gas electric power plants, as many grids pay for reserve capacity that’s very rarely used. Some extreme cases might not even be used beyond validating it still works in a given year.
    - Incipient 3y ago
      Sure but all of these use cases are entirely different to a production plant, say an oil refinery. A synthetic fuel refinery can operate 24/7, so would be budgeted to do so. I could potentially see a hydrogen "battery"/electrolysis setup absorbing excess power in an affordable way, but I'm just saying to date I haven't seen a single one.
      - Retric 3y ago
        Ahh, I was going for Major Capital project. The closest thing to a low utilization fuel refinery is probably some desalination plants. Very high energy costs + wild demand swings means some shutdown quite a bit. There is a few some hydrogen manufacturing plants which only operate on very cheap renewable electricity. However, as I understand it those are currently operated as relatively inexpensive test facilities.
  - adrianN 3y ago
    Gas peaker plants don't run all that often.
2000UltraDeluxe 3y ago
I was thinking more in the line of e-Fuel and the like: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrofuel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrofuel But sure, if hydrogen can be used, stored and then consumed then I can't see why it couldn't be a good idea, assuming demand. The thing about making petrol and diesel is that there's a guaranteed demand for the product, assuming the price is right.

robertlagrant 3y ago

Or a country that doesn't have enough unserviced demand spikes to make pumped hydro useful.